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Discussion in 'Carry Issues' started by RWBlue, Jun 12, 2011.

  1. RWBlue

    RWBlue Mr. CISSP, CISA CLM

    23,551
    847
    Jan 24, 2004
    There are a lot of variables in the world, but......

    What are the odds of any one CCWer of having a AD?

    What are the odds of actually NEEDING a gun?

    What are the odds of having a CCW and not having a chance to draw and put it on target before ....? (Thinking there are CCW rigs that are not much of the first C and there are CCW rigs where there are first C is great, but the draw is slow.)

    What are the odds of of running out of ammo for the CCW?

    What are the odds of a good shoot going to court?

    What are the odds of having your name released to the public if you have to shoot?

    What other good statistical questions are there?
     
  2. I don't know the answers to those questions but as long as it's above 0%, I'm carrying.
     

  3. You don't get actual quantifiable data for a lot of these things, it is more of a qualitative nature. So you don't get actual odds on a number of them, but you do get broader generalities which will also change depending on things like where you are, your situation and equipment, etc.
     
  4. Do you have car insurance, homeowner's insurance, a spare tire, bandages?
     
  5. kensteele

    kensteele

    5,379
    0
    Aug 3, 2003
    Leawood, KS
    I recognise that a lot of folks think car insurance and a spare tire are the same thing as a firearm and in some respects, they are. But for all intents and purposes, when it comes to the average family, they are not.

    Car insurance is a mandatory state requirement. If it were not, many more people would forgo it just like they forgo health insurance today. But since we must have car insurance, we sign a contract and we know the terms. It's in black and white and it basically covers the financial risk to your property and your liability. Unlike a firearm, it has no effect on the situation at hand. It doesn't prevent an accident and it doesn't help save a life and it doesn't [materially] change anything that happens during the course of the entire event. It doesn't effectively affect the way you routinely operate a motor vehicle and it cannot be used against you (outside of the terms that you agreed to in the contract). You know what you are getting with car insurance, or at least you have a pretty good idea.

    A spare tire. The only reason why most people have a spare tire is because it was already there when they took possession of the car. When you hire a car, do you check to see if there is a spare in the trunk, do you even care? Honestly for everyday life, I really don't care to have a spare tire. But technology and circumstances have made it too easy to forgo the spare tire. It's lightweight and doesn't cost you in gas mileage, it's easy to install yourself without any special tools or skills, and it's included in the price of your new vehicle purchase so the industry norm has basically forced a spare tire on many of us who would not ordinary seek to pay extra to obtain one, take special training to know how to use one, or do the maintenance of upkeep required to ensure you get the most bang for the buck. If it were not for TPMS, I would have no idea if my spare tire was flat or not. I have a cellphone and AAA and for local use, I have no need for a spare tire and if they would knock off $2,000 the price of my new car purchase, I would go for it. However, conditions are such that it isn't practically to go without car insurance or a spare tire. I can't really think of one important negative for keeping a spare tire in the trunk or keeping your auto insurance current.

    Conditions (in my neighborhood) are ripe for going without a handgun, a permit, and the maintenance and upkeep and training, and risk to using a firearm (civil liability, criminal liability, legal fees, mental and physical toll, etc). Low crime, surveillance cameras, good police force, cellphone, high situational awareness, lots of people around and other available (inexpensive) tools. Unlike a spare or car insurance, there are at least a couple of negatives if not more for keeping a firearm...to go along with those positives. In some states, accidentally carrying a firearm where you shouldn't can put you in jail. Are there any states where the driver should be concerned about driving to with an insurance card or a spare tire in his possession? In some states, failure to immediately declare your firearm can get you arrested. Are there some states where I can get arrested for having a unlawful spare tire or non-compliant (minimum) car insurance? If you have a firearm on your person and the police see it, you put yourself in a bad position. Have the police ever shot someone over insurance or a spare tire?

    If you purchased your home and it came with home defense weapons and portable weapons that you can take on the go, complete with a legal permit and paid self-defense insurance, a lawyer, and full instructions, you'd see more armed people. However, not everyone is proficient with a weapon (so they're afraid to complicate their lives with one), not everyone knows the law or trust the law (so they'd rather not shoot someone), not everyone can afford the perceived financial burden for it's legal or illegal use, and believe it or not, quite a few people believe they would rather take the chance on ending up dead than go to prison for the rest of their life (right or wrong) for making a mistake or being right but judged by your peers otherwise.

    Right or wrong, if you bring a gun into a bad situation where there is otherwise no gun, the odds of someone being hurt with that gun are higher. Most likely it's the other guy that will be stopped but what are the chances that gun is taken from you and maybe used on your family? How would you feel if they got the drop on your physically, held you down, found out you had a gun and felt you would going to shoot them, so they took your gun and shot your wife? It has happened. If you didn't bring that gun, somebody would be alive. If you didn't bring that gun, you might not be alive. Either. Depends on what you can "live" with. Some people think they would prefer to die in the street than have their gun taken and their family shot with it. A lot of people fear their gun would wind on the street to hurt someone else later.

    I go back to my argument from years ago, do you carry heart medicine in your pocket? The facts are clear. A sudden massive heart attack can silently and quickly strike anyone at anytime (no matter your age or medical condition or physical location or time of day) and it can be a vicious and ruthless killer. I'd rather face Charles Manson on an empty deserted street at midnite unarmed than face a massive killer heart attack while in the emergency room at the nation's finest hospital. Apparently taking "heart medicine" immediately will go a long way to help, it's expensive, there are no laws to worry about, it's very lightweight and convenient, and most importantly it really helps if you can take it or have someone nearby administer it. Do you keep them in your pocket because you don't know when a heart attack will strike, you can't see it coming, no situational awareness will effectively work, none of your traditional weapons will work very well and it can't be reasoned with? The facts are clear, it puts down a lot of people....a lot. You KNOW it's a concern, for all of us. If we're going to protect ourselves from the street threat, why not take similar measures to protect ourselves from an even bigger threat?

    I think it's unfair when a person asks you why you conceal a firearm for personal protection for you to respond with "why do you buy car insurance or why do you carry a spare tire?" It simply isn't the same. Instead we should respond with the truth why we made our choices and acknowledge that a firearm for personal protection is not everyone's cup of tea. Or you can be like me and refuse to comment either way on the matter. YMMV :)
     
  6. Seraph

    Seraph

    463
    0
    Feb 21, 2009
    TN, USA
    The odds are that, if you somehow end up in a gunfight, and you don't have a gun, then you're screwed.

    The odds are that, if you shoot your pistol empty in said gunfight, and you don't have a reload, then you're screwed.

    Don't play the odds. Do as much as you reasonably can to avoid getting screwed.
     
  7. RWBlue

    RWBlue Mr. CISSP, CISA CLM

    23,551
    847
    Jan 24, 2004
    Adding information.

    Why isn't someone keeping better track of these numbers?
     
  8. Actually you do play the odds on a regular basis, whether you realize it or not.
     
  9. Seraph

    Seraph

    463
    0
    Feb 21, 2009
    TN, USA
    What do you mean, Mr. Armstrong?
     
  10. RWBlue

    RWBlue Mr. CISSP, CISA CLM

    23,551
    847
    Jan 24, 2004
    I am not Mr. Armstrong, but I think I can answer the question.

    I assume you drive.
    I assume you drive on 2 lane road in the country some of the time.

    Head on crashes at 110MPH have a high probability of killing the people in the car.
    What is amazing is everyone is zooming around at 55MPH just inches away from someone else zooming along at 55MHP.

    You are betting your life that the other guy doesn't cross the yellow line.

    Most of the time, this is a good bet, but every once and a while.....crash.

    Should this keep you from driving on two lane roads? I don't think so.
    Should this mean that you only drive on 2 lanes roads when driving a brinks truck? I don't think so..
    Should this mean that you shouldn't over drive (driver faster than the distance you can see/stop)? Probably, but most of us don't. We drive 55+ MPH on curvy roads where someone could be stopped, just around the corner.
     
  11. Seraph

    Seraph

    463
    0
    Feb 21, 2009
    TN, USA
    I think everyone over the age of 17 understands this elementary concept. I was just wondering if Mr. Armstrong had something more profound in mind.
     
  12. jhon

    jhon

    90
    1
    Dec 1, 2010
    midwest
    Statistic's for the most part are only numbers. Unless these numbers can be verified and documented with verifiable proof, they really mean nothing.

    Any one can make up statistics to say what ever they want them to say or to show to a party.

    If one is searching for a specific statistic or statistics, make sure as I said above that it can be verified and documented. Not just some yahoo said that some joe said that some jimbo said is going to make it so.

    If any of us was that good with statistics, we all would be out at Vegas or Atlantic city.

    All of us can come up with ' what ifs '. That doesn't mean it is or it will.
     
  13. fuzzy03cls

    fuzzy03cls

    2,873
    23
    Jan 28, 2010
    Florida
    I don't play the percentage game. I take it as it comes.
     
  14. dosei

    dosei

    3,159
    1
    Mar 22, 2005
    Upstate SC
    About as close to 100% as you can get.
     
  15. dosei

    dosei

    3,159
    1
    Mar 22, 2005
    Upstate SC
    Because collecting and maintaining the data your wanting would be a full time job for a several people, all working together. Who is going to fund these data monkeys? Like most things, it is a matter of time and money. What your asking for would take a fair bit of both.
     
  16. John Rambo

    John Rambo Raven

    12,745
    822
    Feb 15, 2010
    Tampa, Fl.
    The odds are, averaged across the US, about .50%(thats 1 in 200) per year, that you're involved in a violent crime. That would warrant needing a gun. All other odds increase exponentially from there. Except the court and name released to the public. They aren't exactly exponential increases.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2011
  17. RWBlue

    RWBlue Mr. CISSP, CISA CLM

    23,551
    847
    Jan 24, 2004
    You get it, so you have common (or should I say less common) sense. I am amazed at the number of people I deal with which don't get the concept.

    They believe security is like a light switch. It is turned on and turned off.

    I play the odds every day. Should we do this, shouldn't we do this. Are we spending more on securing an asset than it is worth. Is it our problem or someone elses' problem. If it is their problem, but still impacts us....

    I am amazed at how many people don't really understand risk and make the WRONG decision based only on gut feelings.
     
  18. RWBlue

    RWBlue Mr. CISSP, CISA CLM

    23,551
    847
    Jan 24, 2004
    I just assumed that FBI or DOJ would gather this data and it would take more than a few people to sort through the information and draw conclusions.

    Heck we could use BOC 9 out of 10 years to do this work. They are good with stats.
     
  19. Let me quote from another forum member (degoodman) on this issue:
    "....every time we take action based on an observation with an expectation of the outcome, we are engaging in our own little game of probability and statistics."

    We play the odds every day several times a day with many things we do.
     
  20. That is not quite accurate. Statistics are not only numbers. Statistics are an analysis of number that then describe certain concepts or items. As for the verification/proof issue that is true of pretty much everything, not unique to stats.
    All the better reason to understand stats yourself so yo can know when that is happening.
    There are a number of folks that make very good livings as professional gamblers because, in large part, they are that good with statistics.
    True, which is why we need stats to help us figure out the likelihood of a "what if."