close

Privacy guaranteed - Your email is not shared with anyone.

SHTF for Stock Market

Discussion in 'Survival/Preparedness Forum' started by Dexters, Sep 5, 2011.

  1. Dexters

    Dexters

    Joined:
    May 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,191
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    ga
    I think the stock market will be going down strong into late Sept/early Oct, then a weak rebound and then continue down until mid 2012.

    Take a look at foreign stock markets today - Monday 0/5
    Down 2-3% as I write this.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/

    Germany looking very bad. They probably will not want to bail out Spain & Italy.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GDAXI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^N225+Interactive#symbol=^N225;range=1y

    There is still time to get out. You can tell by the foreign currency market. The flight to safety of the US$ has not begun yet in earnest.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/forex-rates/

    I know a lot of people are expecting high inflation due to what central banks are doing. That will probably happen later in the decade. First we will have general deflation because money is being destroyed faster than it is printed. Add to that higher unemployment and companies will not be able to raise prices. Expect oil to fall as the markets price in a recession, less demand and a stronger dollar.

    Here are the US markets futures
    http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2011
  2. Dexters

    Dexters

    Joined:
    May 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,191
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    ga
    The French stock market is probably getting hit hard because their banks are not too strong either. Down over 4% as I write this.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^FCHI+Interactive#chart1:symbol=^fchi;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2011

  3. kirgi08

    kirgi08 Watcher. Silver Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2007
    Messages:
    35,597
    Likes Received:
    4,428
    Location:
    Acme proving grounds.
    Tick-Tock.'08.
     
  4. Dexters

    Dexters

    Joined:
    May 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,191
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    ga
  5. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2009
    Messages:
    21,133
    Likes Received:
    2,971
    Location:
    U.S.A.
    I don't think the U.S. stock market will fall too much more in the short term. A lot of companies are still making a lot of money and their PE ratios are becoming quite reasonable (which means they are a good buy). And as you said, global money will be coming to the U.S. for safety (how ironic, huh?)

    But it's all good for gold and silver. Buy, baby, buy!

    The Euro will be gone in 5-10 years, if not sooner.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2011
  6. Dexters

    Dexters

    Joined:
    May 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,191
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    ga
    'too much more'
    'short term'
    Are you a stock salesman?

    I'm guessing the S&P will hit 1,000 by the end of Sept/early Oct. When the dollar strengthens gold will weaken also but not very much maybe lower by $200.
     
  7. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2009
    Messages:
    21,133
    Likes Received:
    2,971
    Location:
    U.S.A.
    I got out of the market (except for two of my fave stocks) completely back in June. I really don't see another 15% drop in the next month. Could happen but the fact is a lot of great stocks are good buys at this point. For now I'm just "week trading" my fave stocks, playing these ups and downs. I try not to hold anything over the weekend as who knows what kind of crap will happen on a day-to-day basis now.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2011
  8. ArmoryDoc

    ArmoryDoc

    Joined:
    May 14, 2006
    Messages:
    4,080
    Likes Received:
    52
    Location:
    Kansas
    Watch the middle east for the big catalyst. That pot is nearing a boil.
     
  9. ArmoryDoc

    ArmoryDoc

    Joined:
    May 14, 2006
    Messages:
    4,080
    Likes Received:
    52
    Location:
    Kansas
    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4118220,00.html

    A little sabre-rattling by the Israelis but don't underestimate the seriousness of the underlying warning. I think they are itching to take out Iran before they can manifest into a nuke threat. The Ruskies are assisting Iran with their engineers on site. That whole middle east is a dry powder keg.
     
  10. Dexters

    Dexters

    Joined:
    May 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,191
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    ga
    Well, I think we are on the same page except for the size of the decline, I'm in 90% cash and 10% short.

    London was down 3.5% and Germany 5.28% - if the S&P gets hit 4% tomorrow or this week that is only another 11% to 15%. I think that is doable.
     
  11. Dexters

    Dexters

    Joined:
    May 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,191
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    ga
    Middle East
    9/11
    European financial problems
    Obama speech

    A lot of things to go wrong.
     
  12. Restless28

    Restless28

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2008
    Messages:
    16,152
    Likes Received:
    2
    Location:
    Solsbury Hill
    I'm in it for the long haul. Even if it crashes, it will come back. The money that controls politicians will see to it.
     
  13. Mabo

    Mabo Want a beer?

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2003
    Messages:
    355
    Likes Received:
    10
    I think if anyone could accurately predict what the stock market was going to do they wouldn't be posting here on glocktalk...
     
  14. Dexters

    Dexters

    Joined:
    May 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,191
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    ga
    Why not?

    There are a lot more aspects to life than money.
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2011
  15. Ruble Noon

    Ruble Noon "Cracker"

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2009
    Messages:
    11,018
    Likes Received:
    3
    The obama speech will probably be the most devastating thing in your list for the stock market.
     
  16. Mabo

    Mabo Want a beer?

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2003
    Messages:
    355
    Likes Received:
    10
    That sounds like something poor people tell themselves so they can justify their time spent on glock talk... Just messing with you, after all I'm on here too.

    I'm not saying your predictions won't be right, you did well by starting off your post with the key words "I think..." I just feel like everyone on the S&P forum preaches doom and gloom and we would all be better off if we stepped back and took a deep breath. Also if Germany backed the Greece bail out why do you think they would not back an Italy/Spain bail out?
     
  17. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2009
    Messages:
    21,133
    Likes Received:
    2,971
    Location:
    U.S.A.
    Yeah Israel is the wild card here. That's getting close to finally reaching the tipping point and could blow at any time. I am absolutely convinced Israel will attack the nuclear sites in Iran, it's just a question of when. Five years ago I would have said it would have happened by now. But surely it can't be too much longer.
     
  18. Dexters

    Dexters

    Joined:
    May 3, 2004
    Messages:
    4,191
    Likes Received:
    3
    Location:
    ga
    Thanks - I appreciate a respectful give and take.
    As to Germany - the people are voting against Merkel and are tired of bail out and fear the future economic problems like people here are.

    http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15364240,00.html

    The German constitutional court could require the Parliament to approve the bailout with the support of the people might not support the bailouts.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903648204576552763055567014.html
     
  19. pugman

    pugman

    Joined:
    May 16, 2003
    Messages:
    6,274
    Likes Received:
    479
    Location:
    Wisconsin
    Italy is indeed a big deal.

    When you look at the global economies...Greece is 32nd largest in size, Ireland (the forgotten step child) is 43rd, Portugal which was getting some press a while back is 38th.

    Italy on the other hand is 8th and is only a hair behind the U.K.
     
  20. Bilbo Bagins

    Bilbo Bagins Slacked jawed

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    11,211
    Likes Received:
    1
    Economic Doom and Gloom until the 2012 elections. If the republicans win, the economy will fall off the radar, and it will be doom and gloom of an attack coming from Iran, or even Venezuel. Mark my words.