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Discussion in 'Political Issues' started by jeanderson, Oct 19, 2012.
I smell victory...
Trust me. FL and Wisconsin will go Romney.
i think NH and PA will go obobo, dont know on the others
NH I'd say almost definitely. PA, I still think is a toss up.
Just from the polls, I think WI is a distant chance. Republicans are riding strong momentum there though, with the Walker recall, busting unions, etc.. so it's definitely possible.
Here are their polling histories for three states they consider "toss ups".
All three are pretty much solid Obama.
Maybe they detect some trend that others are not.
And 538 has Wisconsin at 81%.
So I'd have to say you're out on a limb on that one.
Some polls have shown Romney ahead in FL. I doubt Romney will win Wisconsin.
It's very difficult to find a scenario where Romney wins without winning Ohio, and right now, he's still behind in Ohio.
Not that I put a lot of faith in polls, however I do expect they will be working to reduce bias and improve accuracy as we get closer to the election. Otherwise, I doubt they will be well funded the next time.
NH & OH about even.
Electoral College...about even.
An interesting tidbit about RCP is that Steve Forbes has a controlling interest. There's no doubt that RCP is quite popular but I'm guessing that Forbes has no compunction against putting his thumb on the scale.
Agreed. I've been playing around with different scenarios using RCP's website and an iPad app from Fox that lets you set each state's outcome. Very difficult to have Romney win without Ohio.
Des anyone need to mention the White House putting their thumb on the scale by calling a major pollster in to "discuss" their methodology?
Breitbart has an article showing with one exception(2004) over the last 30years that Ohio is always redder than the national average. I'm still not sold on these +8 D polls either. It will be close, no doubt, but Romney Carries Fl, VA, OH with good chances at CO, NH and the fact that he's within the margin of error in PA, WI should worry Obama.
In a "predictions" thread here about a month ago I said that it was quite possible that this election would break the "Ohio centered statistical model"
Ohio's big feature has really been it's correct choice in previous elections, but that is really no more than an interesting factiod. If you level the stats by going back to 1960, the first election with our current 50 states this will be the 13th presidential election. Statistically it is not amazing that one of 50 states has a 100% record. It is just "interesting. Every election many "Always" and "Never" factoids are disproven and "firsts" happen.
Ohio's record has way overvalued it's chips in the game. I strongly suspect that Romney will take it, but I won't be surprised, when the smoke clears on the morning of the 7th to find that Romney would have one without it.
That apps is kind of cool. I've been fiddling with it.
Well, if the last couple of weeks are any indication on which way the election is starting to turn, Romney can probably count on winning most of the toss up states.
Obama seems to be reduced to more and more attack ads, that just emphasize that he can't talk about his record. I've heard more and more people joking about Obama's explanation for why the gas prices were so low when he took over. When you start to become a joke, the end is near, and Obama is a joke with most of the people I talk with.
i don't know. from what i can see outside of philly, the public is disgusted with oblameo.
well, it was solidly for him a little whle back, don't think opinions will sway that much, im skeptical of calling it a given
The challenge in Ohio is that many folks have already voted.
In the final stretch, the undecideds tend to break 2-1 for the challenger.
THough there are less of them than ever before with the high polarization factor.
The fence sitters amaze me. Are you really that stupid? Still havent figured it out?
When I think of the town hall debate, prez#2, those people weren't undecided. Horse****e.
Like the lady with the AWB question?
AND it was at Hofstra, on Long ISLAND?
As in, Chuck Schumer's back yard?
They should NEVER have a debate in such partisan zipcodes.
CO and FL are great places to hold debates. Swing states, where you can get at least a shot at fairness. But the audience in #2 was loaded.
That's what I thought. "You mean to tell me there is an undecided voter within a hundred miles? Sure thing."
That "applause" during the debate should have been enough proof