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Predictive Policing

Discussion in 'Cop Talk' started by CAcop, Aug 19, 2011.

  1. Mayhem like Me

    Mayhem like Me Semper Paratus

    Mar 13, 2001
    Not a chance
    It's smoke and mirrors you CAN predict , certain trends , so where , and when to patrol.. You will never get a time date and address.
    Nothing new really and the math is not that hard it's all probability equations.
    Works best on spree crimes... does not work well on spur crimes.

  2. blueiron


    Aug 10, 2004
    It is the 21st century version of the pin map, with the reinforcement of both operations research and statistical analysis mathematics disciplines.
  3. volsbear

    volsbear IWannaBeSedated Lifetime Member

    Nov 8, 2007
    WTF is your brain for, dude?

    I like technology. As long as it's used as a tool and not a crutch. A 40% rate of prediction resulting in 5 arrests doesn't seem statistically or even numerically sufficient. My only problem with techno junk like this is that as we continue to hire younger and younger people who depend more and more on technology, that eventually the inquisitive street cop mentality will get replaced with a stupid computer.

    We see it in probation, too. Plenty of technological "advancements" that are allegedly here to help do our job better but have created a generation of people dependent upon computers to make decisions. Hell - half our staff has more than 10 years experience and many of those people still can't navigate the major streets in the jurisdiction since the bosses decided the purchase of GPS was a super-cool idea.

    And to navigate is a fundamentally simple intellectual task. Imagine how much vital, critical-thinking skills would be forever affected if LEOs of every job classification let the computer think for them.

    I think the idea is great in theory but implementation will be the key. The bosses better find a way to keep people thinking about what they're doing instead of letting the computer do it for them.

    Last edited: Aug 19, 2011
  4. EOD3


    Oct 19, 2000
    WOW, predicting when and where crimes will be committed? I've never met a LEO with more than a year on the job that couldn't guess right 40% of the time. Fire the computer geek(s) and hire a few more officers. Less geeks, more officers, a win/win in my book.
  5. ateamer

    ateamer NRA4EVR

    A good cop knows his beat and knows where and when to be to find the crooks. This stuff is like Gerbil Voodoo - okay for rookies who haven't gotten much experience yet.
  6. DaBigBR

    DaBigBR No Infidels!

    Oct 28, 2005
    Circling the wagons.
    I am also a huge proponent of technology in LE, BUT...

    I think that sometimes in handicaps us. How many times have any of you seen a vehicle that was just begging to be stopped, and had a valid violation, but you let it go because the plates came back clear and the registered owner had a valid license? I know that I apply some of that "logic" and always kick myself for doing it when I end up getting something good out of a car that I would have wrote off because of the computer.
  7. Dragoon44

    Dragoon44 Unfair Facist Lifetime Member

    Apr 30, 2005
    OMG! what incredible advances in police procedure! that someone can predict that there will be more crime in areas known for high crime!

    My modest effort at predictive policing is to predict that there are officers, (and administrative personnel that come up with stuff like this are disproportionaly represented) that couldn't find their ass with both hands and a flashlight.

  8. Hack

    Hack Crazy CO Gold Member

    Hmm ... predictive? I predict that crime will happen, is happening, has happened. And, all that without a degree.:whistling:
  9. I was thinking the same thing......A new face on old technology...
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2011
  10. fla2760


    Aug 12, 2006
    Patterns son, patterns. It also is a plus to have some of the lesser miscreants on your post you have given a break whisper in your ear from time to time. Community policing 101.
  11. ClydeG19


    Oct 5, 2001
    So they are pretty much using GIS to see where and when crime is happening and is likely to continue happening? Hasn't this been going on for a while now?
  12. GackMan


    Feb 12, 2002
    I've got it...

    "increase patrol in ****ty neighborhoods where all the crime happens."

    I predicted that is where the next crimes will happen.
  13. fastbolt


    Jun 9, 2002
    CA Central Coast
    I remember enjoying a lot of laughs when the movie Demolition Man was released, and not just for the over-the-top role given to Snipes and his portrayal of the character (which he obviously enjoyed), but especially for the way the futuristic policing methods and mindset of the San Angeles Police Department was portrayed.

    My smiles became more rueful with each passing repeat viewing of it over the years.
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2011
  14. Cochese

    Cochese Most mackinest CLM

    Jun 30, 2004
    Unmarked Rustbox
    This is a retarded waste of money.

    **** like this is why I don't have a ****ing fence around my PD lot! :steamed:


    Sep 29, 2005
    Just 40%? Na, I'd give a good cop a 75% chance of nailing it on the head. We all know where our turds are and we know the places they do their dirt.

    I agree though... Less computer nerds more street cops with some common sense and a little street smarts.