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Pajamas alerts re EMP

Discussion in 'Survival/Preparedness Forum' started by kimo, Sep 12, 2011.


  1. kimo

    kimo
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  2. psk1

    psk1
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    We can only hope!!
     

  3. cowboy1964

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    I'm more worried about China than Iran. China wants Taiwan back and to rule Asia. But an EMP attack is a nuclear attack and the retaliation would be total. The ayatollah and mullahs aren't stupid. In the end they're just power hungry thugs and they don't want to lose everything.
     
    #3 cowboy1964, Sep 12, 2011
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2011
  4. psk1

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    ayatollahs are looking for the return if the 12th imam and truly beleave that for hin to return they MUST bring about a world wide destruction.
    that is why a nucular Iran is so bad.they will push the buton in a heart beat.
     
  5. Bolster

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    And we just sit here with our thumbs up a hole, waiting for it to happen, hoping some other country will take care of the problem for us.

    Then there will be all this, "Why didn't you connect the dots?" wailing afterwards, depending on what party the president is from. If he's from the "correct" party, then the line will be, "Nobody could have predicted that."
     
    #5 Bolster, Sep 12, 2011
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2011
  6. BORNGEARHEAD

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    The only fear we have to fear...
     
  7. Bilbo Bagins

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    Old news. The whole GHB craze started when with articles in 2005 that claim Iran, with North Korean help, was planning to developed a missile that could be launched from a cargo ship, and carry a nuclear device over US airspace.

    http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=44017

    Part of it was a propanganda story. No WMDs were found in Iraq, so let's float another Boogeyman story. Also its Iran way of saying, you invaded Iraq, don't come after us because we would do this.

    At the time it was all theory. However today, they is a possibility that they COULD do it. They have the missile systems to do it, and they might have enough of a nuke to make one Bomb. The best way to successfully strike the USA with one bomb would be an upper atmosphere EMP attack, vs trying to hit one US city with a missile attack.

    Watch Iran's Space program. I doubt they are going to do it, but if I was Iran, I would put a nuke into orbit, diguised as a civilian satellite.
     
    #7 Bilbo Bagins, Sep 13, 2011
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2011
  8. cyrsequipment

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    There were WMDs found, lots of them, they just weren't made a big deal of because they were old and were found later than they were supposed to have been...

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,200499,00.html

    http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/201...nt-continued-in-iraq-with-surprising-results/

    http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/201...nt-continued-in-iraq-with-surprising-results/

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/us_did_find_iraq_wmd_AYiLgNbw7pDf7AZ3RO9qnM

    Iran WILL try to posture itself when they have a fully developed nuclear program...
     
  9. BORNGEARHEAD

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    Aren't we the ones surrounding Iran right now? How are they a threat? Like Iran is occupying Mexico and Canada. :upeyes:
     
  10. Bilbo Bagins

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    If our saber rattling about them not having a nuke program turns into a bombing run, we will shake up the hornest nest that we surround. There is an estimated 1.5 million Iranians living in America.
     
  11. psk1

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    Well Mexico for now.
     
  12. cowboy1964

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    99.xx% of whom probably have no love for the current regime.
     
  13. Bilbo Bagins

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    Pre-2000 I would totally agree, but radical Islam and the new generation of Iranian-Americans views of America has changed a lot since then. A call for Jihad, is a call for Jihad.
     
  14. G29Reload

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    1. Iran has called for an EMP attack before, I recall it was out in an Iranian military journal in the past 10 years.
    2. I want to see the evidence behind the statement that NOAA has predicted a solar event for 5/2013.

    I call BS. There is no way or methodology to predict a solar flare. There is a long term trend in sunspots over a dozen years, but aside from that the only thing we can predict is sunrise and sunset. That's it. Anything else, by anyone...is a guess. There might not be a killshot solar flare for 300, or a thousand years...or next week. Anyone that tells you they know with certainty is a. lying, b, a fool, c: all of the above.

    3. There is no guarantee that an EMP attack will be catastrophic, complete or effective. We DON't know for sure that every car, generator or transformer will be:

    a: fired beyond repair,
    b. Temporarily out of order, to come back to life shortly after the event,
    c. Existing shielding more than sufficient, etc.

    A transformer is just wire windings. The copper doesnt become inert. I know I'm oversimplifying here, but I have no such illusions that with all the uncertainty of an effective attack, the Iranians would be pulling for their own failure with a successful attack by a guess: 20% likelihood of success.

    They have to get a nuke.
    Then they have to perfect it.
    Then they have to weaponize it to the launcher
    Then it has to be tuned to the mission
    They have to test it.
    Then they have to repeat all the above, then:
    Then they have to get it in place
    Then they have to have a perfect launch
    Then they need perfect placement / targeting
    Nothing can go wrong
    When it goes off, they have to hope its the right location, time of day, optimum weather, no detection, full plausible deniability,

    and that it will bring a sufficient level of devastation.

    But we will still have enough assets to retaliate.

    We will know who built it:
    We maintain a database of isotopes that we know worldwide, right down to the mine the fissile material came out of, where the material came from, and as a result, who built the bomb. Our military will sample atmosphere, and get the bombs signature.

    30 minutes later, Tehran will cease to exist.

    IOW,

    NEar impossible to pull off,
    Near certainty of getting caught,
    100% certainty of retaliation.

    Exercise pointless, unless they're on a suicide mission.
     
  15. racerford

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    And that is the problem, if it brings the 12th Imam (sp?) then it may be OK with enough of them to do it. Who would have thought they would have gotten as many suicide bombers as they have? And yet they have plenty of them.
     
  16. Warp

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    ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ

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    That's a lot of logic for the internet
     
  17. jdavionic

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    I would offer some additional considerations. While I agree that a LOT needs to go "right", I would also add that the technological "horse" has left the barn. Other countries can and have offered assistance. The extent of this "assistance" is unknown, but it's certainly not outside the realm of reason that they have the technology required to be successful. Don't forget how stunned the world was when North Korea successfully detonated a nuke. And Iran already has demonstrated the capability for getting satellites into space.

    As for the nuclear material, they are well underway in producing their weapon-grade nuclear material. Other countries can now wash their hands of any Iranian actions.

    So IF they have the capability, the next question is 'will they'. Would we actually nuke in retalliation with other nations so close? Again, I think there is some doubt there. Would we respond with conventional weapons? I think there is little doubt there. Is that enough of a deterrant to prevent them from fulfilling their desire to wipe Israel off the map and deal a devastating blow to the "great satan" (aka, USA)?

    I think the probability of an Iranian nuclear strike on the US is unlikely, but possible. I think the probability of an Iranian nuclear strike on Israel is just a matter of time. If that indeed happens, the world will become a much more interesting (not in a good way) place. Imagine the state of the world economy in an oil crisis.
     
  18. G29Reload

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    I agree they're crazy enough to do that, but only if they think its gonna work. They want some payback besides the virgins for their effort. If it fizzles, is detected in boost phase, or anything that guarantees retaliation without hitting the mark, they won't.
     
  19. TangoFoxtrot

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    I agree, it was the same BS with Iraq back in 2003. Iraq posed no threat to the U.S.
     
  20. jdavionic

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    Not sure I see the correlation. Iraq repeatedly violated the UN mandates that ended the first Gulf War. They routinely (almost daily) fired on our aircraft. They asserted that they had WMDs, and indeed they failed to destroy the WMDs that were mandated to be destroyed after the first war. Yes, there is quite a debate over whether the intelligence data from multiple administrations in the US, and several other nations was flawed with respect to the large stockpiles of WMDs. Whether they had them and they were smuggled out of country or they never had them is certainly debatable.

    With Iran, you have a country where they have openly said they want to see our demise, along with Israel's. They have excelled in the nuclear development. Do they pose an immediate nuclear threat to the US? I don't think so. If we do nothing, will they be a nuclear threat in the future? Maybe.

    However putting nukes aside, they have demonstrated that they are a threat to our troops in Iraq by furnishing materials and training that ultimately result in deadly attacks on our troops. However all of this is another debate best suited for the political forum.

    Getting back to the OP and back on track for the thread, I would maintain the assertion that a near-term EMP or any kind of nuclear strike on the US is unlikely. However I think Israel would be targeted at the first opportunity that Iran has to use a nuke. If that happens, the world will get more complicated than it is today - e.g., fuel prices soar, economic woes to follow, etc.
     
    #20 jdavionic, Sep 15, 2011
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2011
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