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Most Likely SHTF Scenarios

Discussion in 'Survival/Preparedness Forum' started by DaveG, Feb 13, 2012.

  1. DaveG


    May 3, 2009
    Oldtimers, newcomers, military/LE crowd, average Joes....

    Taking history and the present into account, including the current international climate what do you think the most likely reasons for SHTF will be? I've thought of some below, in which order I think will be most likely.

    1. Natural Disaster - On a local scale this is especially true, such as the looting after the record Alabama and Missouri tornadoes last year, but could also be true on a larger scale like we saw after Katrina. There are areas of the U.S. very prone to large earthquakes, that just haven't really "gone off" in a long time such as Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina... and other places. If one of these places really let loose... well, look out. Can you imagine the good people of East St. Louis (#1 city in crime) being turned loose after the city was leveled by a quake? I wish that we could learn from the AMAZING strength and solidarity shown by the Japanese after their quake, but I fear that we as a whole would not behave that way...

    2. Economic Collapse - Apparently this can come without warning and happen a whole lot quicker than we think.

    3. Civil Political Unrest
    4. Solar storm - Knoked out electronics... holly crap
    5. Terrorist attack with WMD's - too awful to imagine...
    6. Disease outbreak

    What do you guys think? Please add others.
  2. 7. Mutant Zombie uprising
    8. Alien landings

  3. quake

    quake Millennium Member

    Aug 4, 1999
    Arkansas, USA
    On a personal, small-scale level, natural disaster (simple storm damages and outages) would be and has been #1 personally.

    On a national scale, I think economic first and social unrest after; not unlikely for those two to be linked as they're seeing now in Greece.

    Others possible, but not as likely as those imo.
  4. BigFatDog


    Jul 23, 2005
    1 - We run out of toilet paper.

    "Aim small, miss small" ;)
  5. auburn4


    Mar 24, 2006
    Upstate S.C.
    Electric Grid goes down for a extended period of time.
  6. smokeross

    smokeross GTDS Member #49

    May 15, 2011
  7. Resource wars. Oh! wait. That's happening now, sorry.
  8. bdcochran


    Sep 23, 2005
    Los Angeles
    #1. traffic accident.
    I am serious about this.
    I am older, drive more slowly. My reaction time is not as good as it was in my younger days. The population density has substantially increased in my area.
    There is a new upscale grocery store in West Los Angeles. The lazy ass women drivers refuse to park in the two story parking structure built for the store. No. They stop in the number 3 lane and hangout until a parking space in front of the store comes open. I patiently waited about 3 minutes this afternoon as a young lady sat double parked until she got a space. All during this time, people were swerving and speeding past.

    When a traffic light goes out - it is the opportunity for people to freak out, not wait their turns crossing an intersection. Once in a while, there is a wipeout.
    I assume that you guys know what a Denny's or a Norm's Restaurant might be. Imagine a restaurant built in the 50s with a surface parking lot. This describes sites across the street from each other. The one that is less than one acre sold for $11 million this week. The other site is up for sale and is 1.5 acres. They sit at the end of a railroad being built on a track through West LA. And, the Cadillac dealership is being converted into a bus terminal, 450 bed hospital and mixed residential/commercial usage.
    Now you understand why the no. 1 threat is traffic.
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2012
  9. Syclone538


    Jan 8, 2006
    My post from the thread last month. I feel the same, and can't understand how anyone would put anything other then economic collapse at #1.


    Well, BDC makes a good case for traffic accident as most likely personal shtf.
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2012

    LASTRESORT20 LongTerm-Guy

    Aug 10, 2010
    "Economic Collapse - Apparently this can come without warning and happen a whole lot quicker than we think".

    Which will lead to:

    "Civil Political Unrest"
  11. Katrina showed us what can happen. Had a buddy who bugged out...the second time he will do it quite differently.
  12. cowboy1964


    Sep 4, 2009
    The #1 thing I prep for is a pandemic. We are overdue.
  13. arclight610


    Dec 2, 2009
    #1 is economic collapse. The signs are all around: increased national debt, entitlement society, unemployment, devaluation of the dollar. Although other things can happen too, at least we can see this one coming.
  14. Bolster

    Bolster Not Ready Yet!

    Jul 23, 2011
    State of Stupidity
    LOL, so true! So true! ANY slight deviation from normal in LA is freak-out time. Watch all the auto accidents at the first light rain of the season. Mild wind and all our power gets knocked out. I swear if Obama hiccups, someone in LA will drive their car off the road and kill someone.
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2012
  15. G29Reload

    G29Reload Tread Lightly

    Sep 28, 2009
    #2 followed by #3.


    What concerns me most, in likeliness to happen.
  16. Bilbo Bagins

    Bilbo Bagins Slacked jawed

    Sep 16, 2008

    I think this is the biggest possible threat to happen in 2012.

    Let's be frank, you have a real weak economy, you have heavy political partisanship, you have for the first time in US history a black president that was very popular in 2008 losing the upcoming election to a rich white guy.

    I see more crime protest, and rioting in our near future.

    Like others have mentioned we are overdue for a major terrorist attack, and a pandemic. To blend them together, we are real close to the point when pandemic flu will be weaponized.
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2012
  17. pugman


    May 16, 2003
    I respectfully disagree.

    The upcoming failure of the U.S Government and economy is probably the single most predictable event in U.S History.

    In 2011 48.5% of households in this country received food stamps. EDIT: 48.5 MILLION AMERICANS U.S debt is basically out of control. A new measure of how deep we are in the s*** was released by Laurence Kotlifoff in November where he estimated the fiscal gap of the U.S federal government over the next 30 years is $211 Trillion dollars. U.S debt was downgraded for the first time ever and people barely flinched.

    My father and I discussed this over the weekend. An untalked about problem is the one faced by homeowners who actually paid their bills, stayed employed no matter the cost in lifestyle, and bought a reasonable sized affordable house.

    Imagine ALL the foreclosed homes on the market were cleared out tomorrow. My father didn't get it but here is my theory.

    Guy A bought his house in 2006 for $250,000, did a few upgrades over the past few years.

    Guy B bought the home right next door on a short sale for $150,000 in 2011

    Both go and put their homes on the market in 5 years and lets say the real estate market has actually recovered.

    Lets say both appraise at $275K in five years.

    Guy B can put his home on the market and make a profit potentially a huge one...Guy A will possibly break even or even take a loss. Guy B has lots of room to move on his price...Guy A doesn't.

    Depressed real estate values aren't the problem, but what people are able to buy these properties at. Are these prices or values out of line?

    Last two homes sold in my development: 1) Listed at $350 sold at 240 2) Listed at $288 (the owners actual money in) sold at $215.

    My BIL has his home on the market...the guy right behind him bought their place at $168....accepted offer at $105.

    My sister's place after being for sale 3 years finally has an offer...she reasonably paid $168 5 years ago...offered price today $125

    The student loan balloon, unemployment rates over 8%, inflation, the weakening dollar....when I ask people to give me anything which is supposed to improve in the next five years...most can't think of a single thing.

    The experiment known as the United States of America is almost concluded. The signs of a collaspe are all over the this point what they need is an actual trigger.
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2012
  18. kirgi08

    kirgi08 Watcher. Silver Member

    Jun 4, 2007
    Acme proving grounds.
  19. pugman


    May 16, 2003
    Might as well add to my rant.

    I saw a good show last year about the U.S power grid.

    The average piece of equipment is 43 years old. All this equipment was designed for a 50 year life.

    A complete upgrade to the entire U.S power grid is estimated to cost somewhere around $2 trillion dollars. BTW, the Obama adminstration added $1.3 trillion to the U.S deficit in 2010 alone. This $2 trillion number is well within reach.

    Add to this the cost of replacing and upgrading all the bridges in the U.S at around $1.3 trillion....U.S dams is about $1 trillion...

    the entire infrastructure of the U.S is in a sad shape of affairs.
  20. cowboy1964


    Sep 4, 2009
    I don't think that's correct. They may have received entitlements of some sort (including Social Security) but half of this country is not on food stamps.