How to tell a Good Prepper From a Bad Prepper & Fantasy Preppers

Discussion in 'Survival/Preparedness Forum' started by PaulMason, Jan 25, 2013.

  1. nikerret

    nikerret Mr. Awesome

    I'd be willing to bet more people knew how to process the wildlife they killed in 1930 than today. The urban centers are full of people, many more than what were making cities thier home, back then.

    Yes, the outskirts of every large city will be desolate, in terms of wildlife, soon after ShasHTF. I doubt most people will make it 30 miles from where they were when the big bang happens. Draw a circle 30 miles from the suburban city limits, all around the metro; you don't want to be there. Outside of that circle, make 50 mile circles around medium sized cities, say populations under 100K; you don't want to be there. Cities with populations less than 20K people get 100 mile circles. This area isn't as bad as the others unless it touches (especially bad if it overlaps) a circle from a large city. Towns of less than 2,500 don't get a circle, but do get included in any other circle they are tied into.

    Now, how many people are included outside any circles? Not many. How much land in the continental United States is included? My guess is tens of thousands of square miles.

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  2. kirgi08

    kirgi08 Southern Rogue.
    Silver Member

    Some of us do have the luxury of not ever needing ta hunt or fish.Rabbits/chickens will provide fresh meat if so desired.Our collective preps will cover years for my family at up ta 3000cal a day.'08. :eat:

  3. Bingo!

    My County is larger than Rhode Island and has a population of almost exactly 22,000 Or largest city is 48 miles away and has a pop of 6,000 that is three times the pop of the next largest city and 6 times that of the only other "city".

    A good portion of out inhabitants are retirees and folks in nursing home and care facilities, our biggest industry since they shut down logging. Those folks don't hunt much.

    The other counties around us are almost exactly the same.
  4. Just a thought. Preservation. During the depression many people had iceboxes and root cellars. Many also still had power or were more well versed in preservation tactics that don't require electricity.

    A lot of folks in the average shtf scenario will not have the ability to create power or adequately preserve meat. That being said, a single large mammal could feed a family for a few weeks, but not if it goes bad. In some areas, you might have a lot of critters but some folks will be shooting one every few days. It could definitely dampen a population.

    A possible deer equation, which I know could be supplemented with other animals. 12K people with an average family size of 4. So 3000 families in a give narea. 1 deer every other week per family. That's 3000x 26. Thats 78,000 deer a year per 12k people.

    Now there are some areas with low enough population densities and enough animal diversity to sustain the folks that live there ( like Country's area). But a lot of places can't. I live in the midwest. The only large mammal that is widespread in my state is whitetail deer and at numbers any where close to what I mentioned, those deer aren't going to last. Guess where we are headed next? And it would be folly to assume that everyone in the "populated" states are weak city folk.

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  5. Donn57

    Donn57 Just me

    I live in Florida. White tail deer and wild boar are Florida's big critters. There are an estimated 700,000 white tail deer and 500,000 wild boar in Florida. Florida has a population of about 19M people. You don't even have to do any actual math to see that it won't take long for the deer and boar population to be wiped out.
  6. I wasn't writting about the Great Depression in the post you are quoting.

    I'm guessing you are just being argumentative or it is more important to get to 10,000 posts then making sense.
    #106 PaulMason, Feb 2, 2013
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2013
  7. Stevekozak

    Stevekozak Returning video

    If you eliminate the sensless pissing contests, and immature egos, this has been a pretty good thread!
  8. 10-4 I've added country gun to my ignore list
  9. Guess ignoring everyone that disagrees with you is one to be always be
  10. nikerret

    nikerret Mr. Awesome

    That would mean that all 12K people would have to survive the whole year. Not likely. If it's gone bad, people will start dying within days, weeks. A lot of people die every day, presently.

    It also assumes a near-100% success rate for hunters.

    Here's some other numbers from the 2011 KS Deer Hunting Season

    ..."reports that about 98,000 deer were killed in Kansas last year by all deer hunters, resident (82,500) and non-resident (15,300)." This does not inlcude poached deer, or deer hit by vehicles, both categories carry thier own large numbers.

    ..."there are about 116,000 total deer hunters. This shows that around 84% of deer hunters took the deer they bought permits for. Some of these hunters in the 16% that didn't fill their tags could be acconted for for a variety of reasons: poached instead of filling tags, first year (and/or inadequate skill), got too busy, couldn't find a place to legally hunt, etc. However, of those 16%, many were skilled hunters who hunt year round, and have, for years.

    Here's another article on the same issues:

    "With a healthy statewide herd of over 500,000 animals, and hunters harvesting only 92,000 during 2010, 2011 is shaping up nicely. There was a drought in 2011 that hurt population, but 2012 was a good year, for them.

    Here's an interesting chart showing the success rates of hunters in more than one area, from the same article:

    The average is nowhere near 100% with mostly skilled hunters in the best deer hunting places in the US. I doubt many preppers will do better than the average hunter who lives in these areas.

    Then, you have to factor in those who will get a kill, but starve anyway or kill themselves with improper food prep or not be able to identify when the game killed was not healthy and eat something they should have left or taint their meat by improper field dressing/cleaning/processing.

    I never assumed, or said that. However, the people in the populated areas will have to get out of them. Many won't survive this. Once the roads out of town are blocked off, most people don't have means to get out of the city on foot.

    For example, if you're in downtown Kansas City when it goes bad, and there is no power anywhere in the metro area, your chances of getting out in a vehicle, after the event, are next to none. Find an airport and steal a plane, or you're on foot, bicycle, or moped. It's more than 30 miles of densely populated urban areas full of 2 million panicking people. No matter how badass you are, you need some luck, too.

    Then, after you get out of the city, you are behind the tens of thousands who were closer to getting out when the big bad went down. That's why I said draw circles around those sized cities.

    I doubt most make it out, alive, during the first wave. Those who will do best, will stay home. That works, if you're close to home. In the middle of the day on a non-holiday Tuesday, most people, from larger cities, aren't home, or realitively close.

    Therefore, I maintain that it is a fantasy for most of the urban (and urban minded in the country), but not so much for those who won't be effected by mass population. How many people is that? Not enough to lump "living of the land" as automatically a "fantasy prepper". At most, those who make such a claim shoud cue a small red flag that can be put down with simple, honest explanation of that person's current skills.
  11. nikerret

    nikerret Mr. Awesome

    I don't understand the prevalant use of "ignore". I didn't see anything in the discussion, other than two hard-heads sitting onopposite ends of the table, to warrant not wanting to see the other's posts. Both have brought up some good points and it spurred discussion; the whole point of internet forums.
  12. Not the whole point for some people.

    Look at it this way. I lived in the biggest city in my State for 1/2 my life. I was born and raised in the country, got my education t big college and made my money in the city all with the intention of returning to the country. I grow, hunt, fish for and can food. I am a good carpenter and can use hand tools to do it. I have my own blacksmithing gear, I make and collect knives, I collect way too many guns and reload. I can and have made everything from sausage to soap. I used to teach primitive life skills. I chose to share that knowledge and continue learning as well. I found out a long time ago that attitude and knowledge are two of the most basic sills one must have to survive and that the exchange of knowledge was critical.

    I make any and knowledge and experience I have available to anyone who asks. If SHTF I want the people who were smart enough to see it coming, and to prepare by expanding their knowledge, to be the ones who survive. I don't want the ones who turn cannibal to be the next step in human adaptation :supergrin:

    I even went so far in this thread to say,

    "I won't tell you that you and your neighbors CAN get by hunting because I am smart enough to realize that I don't know your area, but don't tell me that in my area we CAN'T..."

    I think that was a pretty fair-minded and realistic assessment of the facts. I really have no compelling interest in helping anyone who is so close-minded that they can't grasp that.
  13. You are using the wrong information for your analysis. Statistically speaking, you are only using a subset of the total statistical population i.e. legal hunters with a tag in peaceful times, with a hunting season and with a bag limit.

    Your analysis has to be changed for the much larger statistical population, SHTF enviorment, full year hunding season and no bag limit.

    But, that there won't be much game to hunt is just a small part of the fantasy prepper's fantasy They think they will take their gun go into the woods to hunt, trap, and fish for food. Of course in this fantasy no one else thinks of this, so game is plentiful. Also, none of the bad guys or unsafe hunters go do this so a person is safer in the woods then at home. Somehow this fantasy prepper will get (drive?) to the woods, hunt and then carry out what they kill back home. Of course the weather is great - no cold or rain to deal with.
    #113 PaulMason, Feb 2, 2013
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2013
  14. Agreed Paulmason, showing a states current deer harvest goes out the window. There would be no one to enforce game laws. Everybody who could would effectively be using poaching methods. Hunter success rate would temporarily go way up. All you have to do is look what happened in the 1800s. Americans did a heck of job of knocking down the US game population. And there was considerably more habit and less effective techniques and technology.

    I do agree that I wouldn't want to be anywhere close to a big city. Heck I don't want to be near one now, which is why I'm not.

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  15. You are talking about game population studies done I high traffic/population areas. Take a look at this and tell me,


    do you see any roads? We have thousands of acres of just nothing but that. we are over 360 miles from the largest city in our State. Do you really think the folks are going to tool down here to hunt in that for deer that may weigh 100 pounds, on the hoof, if they are big ones?

    How in the world would the experts, who did your studies, go out there and count deer? You really think that country will get drained of game?

    Some of you make me think about a guy, sitting in Minnesota looking out his window and saying "Well, I know I can't grow citrus fruit around here so I don't think citrus fruit can be grown anywhere in America"
  16. concretefuzzynuts

    concretefuzzynuts Brew Crew

    Now it's three more to 10,000.

    Congrats CG.
  17. Aw shucks I am humbled to think that somebody spends so much time thinking of me.

    Sorry, but I just had to send the candy and flowers back, my wife was jealous.

    Anything worthwhile to add for the benefit of the thread?
  18. concretefuzzynuts

    concretefuzzynuts Brew Crew

    I could have said eff you but I thought the GT brotherhood was more appropriate.

    No, I honestly didn't mean anything other than congrats.

    Anyway congrats, whether you wish to accept it or not.
  19. I can attribute 46% of my number to the fact that it was an election year, but there are fifteen subforums here that touch on brands or types of guns I own, knives, outdoors etc. And a bit left over for day-to-day politics.
  20. You need a road to hunt?
    #120 Dexters, Feb 3, 2013
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2013

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