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Old 09-04-2013, 11:19   #1
Hawkwood
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Sum of All Fears...and Syria

Does anyone remember the movie Sum of All Fears, and the plot device of a third party setting off chemical weapons in Chechnya so it looks like the Russian president did it...but he can't deny it because it would make him appear weak and not in control of his own stockpile?

I've thought about this for a few weeks now. Assad has chemical weapons but he hasn't outwardly denied or taken credit for using them in their civil war. The rebels have access to chemical weapons and it just makes a lot of Machiavellian sense for the rebels to orchestrate a false-flag attack to trigger an international response that would suck the U.S. into the conflict and provide a flashpoint for everyone in the region. If the U.S. goes in...you can be guaranteed that Israel will get attacked on principle.

I've studied Middle East politics for decades...professionally and as a personal interest. Assad isn't stupid. He is a brutal butcher, as was his father before him...but he is no dummy. He's killed over 100,000 in this civil war without chemical weapons and now he decides to risk everything to kill another 1000 with Sarin? That seems ridiculous and out of character.

So I'm curious what the GT Braintrust thinks about this. Oh, and not to mention that we are heading into the U.S. mid-term elections...and Syria does provide a nice distraction from all of the Obama scandals of late.
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Old 09-04-2013, 11:30   #2
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Oh boy, here it goes again.

The Dubya Administration did the 9/11 so that they can remain in power.

Now the Obama Administration used chemical weapon in Syria so that it can remain in power.

How many nut jobs are there in America that actually believe in these idiotic scenarios?


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Old 09-04-2013, 11:32   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkwood View Post
Does anyone remember the movie Sum of All Fears, and the plot device of a third party setting off chemical weapons in Chechnya so it looks like the Russian president did it...but he can't deny it because it would make him appear weak and not in control of his own stockpile?

I've thought about this for a few weeks now. Assad has chemical weapons but he hasn't outwardly denied or taken credit for using them in their civil war. The rebels have access to chemical weapons and it just makes a lot of Machiavellian sense for the rebels to orchestrate a false-flag attack to trigger an international response that would suck the U.S. into the conflict and provide a flashpoint for everyone in the region. If the U.S. goes in...you can be guaranteed that Israel will get attacked on principle.

I've studied Middle East politics for decades...professionally and as a personal interest. Assad isn't stupid. He is a brutal butcher, as was his father before him...but he is no dummy. He's killed over 100,000 in this civil war without chemical weapons and now he decides to risk everything to kill another 1000 with Sarin? That seems ridiculous and out of character.

So I'm curious what the GT Braintrust thinks about this. Oh, and not to mention that we are heading into the U.S. mid-term elections...and Syria does provide a nice distraction from all of the Obama scandals of late.
Ummm, I know Baltimore has seen better days - but I am pretty sure downtown Baltimore and Chechnya aren't quite the same.

Not really sure of the 'Sum of All Fears' angle though - it seems like either side of this Syria conflict sucks to side with, and I just don't know enough to offer an academic opinion on the matter.
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Old 09-04-2013, 11:36   #4
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Originally Posted by fnfalman View Post
Oh boy, here it goes again.

The Dubya Administration did the 9/11 so that they can remain in power.

Now the Obama Administration used chemical weapon in Syria so that it can remain in power.

How many nut jobs are there in America that actually believe in these idiotic scenarios?


Posted using Outdoor Hub Campfire
Did you read his post? He's suggesting that the REBELS used the chemical weapons in order to draw the US into the conflict based on Obama's 'red line', after pointing out that as brutal as Assad is, he's not STUPID, and that his using chemical weapons would be foolish on his part as it wold be more likely to draw the US into the conflict. He's not suggesting that Obama set it up.
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Old 09-04-2013, 11:41   #5
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The book would be a better reference. In the book Palestinians found an Israeli nuke and detonated it so that the Russians and U.S would go into WW3.

I think AQ in Syria used the chems to get the U.s to get rid of Assad. They take over and can start the caliphate.

If they can start WW3 it wouldn't bother them. The infidels can destroy each other and they can rise up and take over....In their minds.
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Old 09-04-2013, 12:39   #6
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It most certainly is a logical thought. A scary one too.
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Old 09-04-2013, 13:35   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fnfalman View Post
Oh boy, here it goes again.

The Dubya Administration did the 9/11 so that they can remain in power.

Now the Obama Administration used chemical weapon in Syria so that it can remain in power.

How many nut jobs are there in America that actually believe in these idiotic scenarios?


Posted using Outdoor Hub Campfire
Really? I'd hardly class myself as a nutjob...but thanks for making the assumption. It was covered previously, but let me reiterate for anyone NOT paying attention: I'm not suggesting that Obama used CW's to give him a reason to attack. I'm not saying that Obama will use CW's in Baltimore or the US (seriously...who read that was anywhere near where I was going with this??) I'm wondering if it is a plausible scenario that the REBELS LOOKING FOR THE US TO DO THEIR DIRTY WORK or PEOPLE LOOKING TO EMBROIL THE US DEEPER IN THE MIDDLE EAST might have used the CW's to blame Assad.

Sweet Gingerbread Jesus.
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Old 09-04-2013, 13:36   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fnfalman View Post
Oh boy, here it goes again.

The Dubya Administration did the 9/11 so that they can remain in power.

Now the Obama Administration used chemical weapon in Syria so that it can remain in power.

How many nut jobs are there in America that actually believe in these idiotic scenarios?


Posted using Outdoor Hub Campfire
You just had a massive reading comprehension lapse.......what he said is the rebels did it to pull the US into a more active role than just sending them guns and moral support.
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Old 09-04-2013, 14:10   #9
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What is Russia's "red line in the sand?"
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Old 09-04-2013, 16:30   #10
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That really is the problem with WMD. Carpet bomb Nowheristan enough to matter and everyone is going to know where the planes came from. Invade and it is pretty much impossible to conceal for long who you are. Pop a nuke in a cargo container in some city or a 55 gallon drum of puke&die gas, and it would be a long trail to find the perpetrators; and when you did, the majority of people could be convinced to doubt the evidence by half clever spin doctors.

I think that is half the reason that the major governments are hell bent on suppressing them. And failing of course. Only a matter of time.
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Old 09-04-2013, 16:45   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkwood View Post
Does anyone remember the movie Sum of All Fears, and the plot device of a third party setting off chemical weapons in Chechnya so it looks like the Russian president did it...but he can't deny it because it would make him appear weak and not in control of his own stockpile?

I've thought about this for a few weeks now. Assad has chemical weapons but he hasn't outwardly denied or taken credit for using them in their civil war. The rebels have access to chemical weapons and it just makes a lot of Machiavellian sense for the rebels to orchestrate a false-flag attack to trigger an international response that would suck the U.S. into the conflict and provide a flashpoint for everyone in the region. If the U.S. goes in...you can be guaranteed that Israel will get attacked on principle.

I've studied Middle East politics for decades...professionally and as a personal interest. Assad isn't stupid. He is a brutal butcher, as was his father before him...but he is no dummy. He's killed over 100,000 in this civil war without chemical weapons and now he decides to risk everything to kill another 1000 with Sarin? That seems ridiculous and out of character.

So I'm curious what the GT Braintrust thinks about this. Oh, and not to mention that we are heading into the U.S. mid-term elections...and Syria does provide a nice distraction from all of the Obama scandals of late.
I certainly wouldn't put it in the realm of impossible. However the basis for such a plan would be that Obama will do what he says. I think the perception in the ME and Russia is that this guy is weak. If you go with that, then it makes sense that Assad would have done it.
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Old 09-04-2013, 16:49   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubdriver View Post
Did you read his post? He's suggesting that the REBELS used the chemical weapons in order to draw the US into the conflict based on Obama's 'red line', after pointing out that as brutal as Assad is, he's not STUPID, and that his using chemical weapons would be foolish on his part as it wold be more likely to draw the US into the conflict. He's not suggesting that Obama set it up.
I'm sure he read the post. Please excuse his little problem.

Regards,
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Old 09-04-2013, 17:04   #13
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LOL fnfal misfire....
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Old 09-04-2013, 17:05   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkwood View Post
Does anyone remember the movie Sum of All Fears, and the plot device of a third party setting off chemical weapons in Chechnya so it looks like the Russian president did it...but he can't deny it because it would make him appear weak and not in control of his own stockpile?

I've thought about this for a few weeks now. Assad has chemical weapons but he hasn't outwardly denied or taken credit for using them in their civil war. The rebels have access to chemical weapons and it just makes a lot of Machiavellian sense for the rebels to orchestrate a false-flag attack to trigger an international response that would suck the U.S. into the conflict and provide a flashpoint for everyone in the region. If the U.S. goes in...you can be guaranteed that Israel will get attacked on principle.

I've studied Middle East politics for decades...professionally and as a personal interest. Assad isn't stupid. He is a brutal butcher, as was his father before him...but he is no dummy. He's killed over 100,000 in this civil war without chemical weapons and now he decides to risk everything to kill another 1000 with Sarin? That seems ridiculous and out of character.

So I'm curious what the GT Braintrust thinks about this. Oh, and not to mention that we are heading into the U.S. mid-term elections...and Syria does provide a nice distraction from all of the Obama scandals of late.
I think the scenario you've outlined is entirely within the realm of possibility. I'd imagine that people who eat the organs of fallen enemy troops on video would have no qualms whatsoever about employing such a tactic.
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Old 09-04-2013, 22:35   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkwood View Post
Does anyone remember the movie Sum of All Fears, and the plot device of a third party setting off chemical weapons in Chechnya so it looks like the Russian president did it...but he can't deny it because it would make him appear weak and not in control of his own stockpile?

I've thought about this for a few weeks now. Assad has chemical weapons but he hasn't outwardly denied or taken credit for using them in their civil war. The rebels have access to chemical weapons and it just makes a lot of Machiavellian sense for the rebels to orchestrate a false-flag attack to trigger an international response that would suck the U.S. into the conflict and provide a flashpoint for everyone in the region. If the U.S. goes in...you can be guaranteed that Israel will get attacked on principle.

I've studied Middle East politics for decades...professionally and as a personal interest. Assad isn't stupid. He is a brutal butcher, as was his father before him...but he is no dummy. He's killed over 100,000 in this civil war without chemical weapons and now he decides to risk everything to kill another 1000 with Sarin? That seems ridiculous and out of character.

So I'm curious what the GT Braintrust thinks about this. Oh, and not to mention that we are heading into the U.S. mid-term elections...and Syria does provide a nice distraction from all of the Obama scandals of late.
I just hope our brain trust in Washington has thought this one through as well.
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Old 09-05-2013, 02:42   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkwood View Post
... I've studied Middle East politics for decades...professionally and as a personal interest. Assad isn't stupid. He is a brutal butcher, as was his father before him...but he is no dummy. He's killed over 100,000 in this civil war without chemical weapons and now he decides to risk everything to kill another 1000 with Sarin? That seems ridiculous and out of character.

So I'm curious what the GT Braintrust thinks about this. Oh, and not to mention that we are heading into the U.S. mid-term elections...and Syria does provide a nice distraction from all of the Obama scandals of late.
Since you're so well versed concerning the region, you should already know the reason(s).

You do know that "we" are paying the majority of rebels roughly $100 a day to keep fighting against Assad correct?


The white house is unable to fix Detroit, how the heck is it going to fix Syria?
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Old 09-05-2013, 04:07   #17
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Since you're so well versed concerning the region, you should already know the reason(s).

You do know that "we" are paying the majority of rebels roughly $100 a day to keep fighting against Assad correct?


The white house is unable to fix Detroit, how the heck is it going to fix Syria?
I suppose that depends upon how you define "fix". Detroit is a problem that cannot be solved by military action. Providing military support via strikes to strengthen the "rebels" in their fight against Assad is something that can be addressed via the military.
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Old 09-05-2013, 08:21   #18
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I agree the comparison of Detroit to Syria does not work but I also suspect that we will be able to fix neither.
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Old 09-05-2013, 09:04   #19
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I just hope our brain trust in Washington has thought this one through as well.
OP: Your post makes sense to me, although the ADMINISTRATION now says they have PROOF the Assad regime are the ones that deployed the weapons. Of course the unwashed masses (us) will not be allowed to view that 'evidence'...and therefore the CONSIPIRACY!

Brain trust in Washington? Listening to Rand Paul I found his ideas make sense and we should NOT involve ourselves further. I mean geezuz, we're literally aligning ourselves with Al Qaida.

As I get older and watch the past repeat itself over and over I can't help but think...why can't we leave well enough alone and take care of our own back home? And worse of all, go it alone...oh that's right, not alone. The Israeli's and the Frenchies are with us on this one.

Oil? Really?

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Old 09-05-2013, 09:05   #20
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Occam's Razor suggests that it was the rebels who gassed those civilians, hoping we'd be their new Air Force. And by "rebels" I mean Al Qaeda. There are some non-AQ rebels fighting there, but if Assad is deposed those non-AQ rebels will last about 15 minutes. Lots of Muslim Brotherhood types there too, and a bunch of AQ-friendly Libyans armed with those surface to air missiles our ambassador in Benghazi was trying to get back when all hell broke lose there last year.

Fun times, fun times.
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Old 09-05-2013, 09:08   #21
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Detroit is a problem that cannot be solved by military action. .
Are we sure?
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Old 09-05-2013, 10:03   #22
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What is Russia's "red line in the sand?"
That is an excellent question
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