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Old 09-02-2013, 15:27   #201
devildog2067
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Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
If you can't see the changing architecture of the world financial system with all the new bi-lateral currency agreements as writing on the wall, then you are blind to the new reality.
What is the sum total of all non-US-dollar denominated trade? (Hint: it's tiny)
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Old 09-02-2013, 15:50   #202
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Posted on 4-30-2013:



In six months, your prediction has slid backwards two years.

http://www.glocktalk.com/forums/show...481711&page=10
When making a bet like this, you have to give yourself a little buffer.
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Old 09-02-2013, 16:00   #203
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Originally Posted by devildog2067 View Post
What is the sum total of all non-US-dollar denominated trade? (Hint: it's tiny)
A thousand mile journey starts with the first step.

The BRICS countries are setting up their own bank that will eventually use gold as a settlement vehicle rather than US dollars.

You do know there was a time when the US dollar was not the world's reserve currency, yes? And that changed, yes? So, why can't it change again? It will, it is just a matter of when.

I say sooner than most. And I say gold will replace it. Pretty simple.

Stop paying attention to US media sources and read what the Far East, Middle East, India, and Russia are doing with gold and their central banks. They are gobbling it up. And for a reason.
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Old 09-02-2013, 16:20   #204
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Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
A thousand mile journey starts with the first step.

The BRICS countries are setting up their own bank that will eventually use gold as a settlement vehicle rather than US dollars.
First you claim that the BIS (a settlements bank headquartered in Switzerland that that represents a collection of state banks) is going to declare gold to be 55k/ounce and thus topple "paper gold" globally. Now you are claiming that the BRICS nations (Brazil, India, China, etc.) are setting up THEIR OWN settlement bank system based exclusively on gold, which would effectively do away with the BIS altogether for the BRICS nations which are buying up much of the worlds gold.

You're getting your conspiracy theories tangled up.

But wait, folks...who wants to bet that now the claim will come forth that they're all working together, Illuminatti-style?

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Old 09-02-2013, 17:05   #205
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You do know there was a time when the US dollar was not the world's reserve currency, yes? And that changed, yes? So, why can't it change again? It will, it is just a matter of when.
And now you're talking about something else.

The US dollar is the world's reserve currency due to a combination of historical inertia and the fact that the US is still a huge economy. It's entirely possible that one day, something else will come along and supplant the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, and I never suggested otherwise. In fact I've said, right here at GT, a number of times that it's a possibility.

The end of the US dollar as the world's default reserve currency is not at all the same as gold being magically repriced. One can happen without the other.
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Old 09-02-2013, 17:42   #206
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And now you're talking about something else.

The US dollar is the world's reserve currency due to a combination of historical inertia and the fact that the US is still a huge economy. It's entirely possible that one day, something else will come along and supplant the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, and I never suggested otherwise. In fact I've said, right here at GT, a number of times that it's a possibility.

The end of the US dollar as the world's default reserve currency is not at all the same as gold being magically repriced. One can happen without the other.
They all fit together. Just because you can't see it, doesn't mean it won't happen.

You will see.
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Old 09-02-2013, 17:45   #207
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They all fit together. Just because you can't see it, doesn't mean it won't happen.

You will see.
Yes, we will. You've already claimed it will happen in 2018. If GT is still here and you haven't run off we will see you move the goalposts again.
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Old 09-02-2013, 17:46   #208
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They all fit together. Just because you can't see it, doesn't mean it won't happen.

You will see.
And yet, you still refuse to put your money where your mouth is.

Let's make the stakes smaller, since you seem unwilling to make a meaningful wager. I have a crisp $100 bill that says gold will not be "repriced" against the dollar. Time horizon on the bet is anything you like. Take the bet or admit you're full of it.
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Old 09-02-2013, 17:55   #209
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And yet, you still refuse to put your money where your mouth is.
Nah, his gold "investment" is probably comprised of the fillings in his teeth.
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Old 09-02-2013, 18:16   #210
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Putting aside all of the niceties, the BIS is subject to US law because it is not beyond the reach of the US military and the US Treasury, meaning it can be controlled (destroyed) by the US Government. The reason the USD became the reserve currency was fundamentally because the US was the only super power at the time. There was no other choice when the Bretton Woods system was created.

Historically, reserve currencies belong to governments with dominant military forces. Also gold was historically liked for international settlements because the value of a currency was relatively stable in gold value. That ended when President Nixon closed the gold window and ended the Bretton Woods system. Since the USD was considered gold until that time, the USD became the reserve currency. The next reserve currency might be the yuan if China can adapt and get its people all up to speed.

With the "printing" of money by the Fed's purchase of Treasuries, hard assets are a good investment. The question is which hard asset. Gold has a historical basis but so do real estate, weapons, and manufacturing equipment. Of those, gold is the only one that just sits and does nothing. Land can be used for crops or for housing, weapons can be used to project force, and manufacturing equipment can be used to make stuff. Gold has some industrial uses but much of it just sits in vaults to settle accounts or exists as jewelry. To me, that is the real reason gold is a barbarous relic; it is just a store of value and never a means to create.

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The Hunts were "brought down" under U.S. law.

What portion of the world gold market is under U.S. law?
What is the U.S. jurisdiction over the BIS?
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Old 09-02-2013, 18:39   #211
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Gold has had its best bull run in a generation because we encountered the worst recession since the Great Depression. It was a flight to safety, that's all. Every indication is that we are recovering (albeit slowly) and that recovery can be inversely seen in the more recent decline in gold. It was a great time for commodities, but that doesn't seem to be enough for the goldbugs. We have to endure fairy tails of $50k+ gold that are never going to happen. And we don't have to guess at that, all we have to do is watch the market. It ain't gonna happen, I assure you.
Gold haters said the same thing in the early 1970s when gold dropped from $195 to $100. In what way are we recovering? How is our debt going to be dealt with other than default or continuing to devalue the dollar. When interest rates return to their historical averages it will cost $1 trillion a year to service the debt.
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Old 09-02-2013, 18:43   #212
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It sounds to me like he has become emotionally invested in his own investment portfolio. He needs it to be true.
And that could never be true of holders of our QE-inflated stock market, could it?
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Old 09-02-2013, 18:47   #213
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Gold has some industrial uses but much of it just sits in vaults to settle accounts or exists as jewelry. To me, that is the real reason gold is a barbarous relic; it is just a store of value and never a means to create.

You are correct that most gold "just sits".
How is that really pertenant to the desirability of gold as an asset?

If I have 2,000 troy ounces of 24K gold, I can use that to create a small real-estate development, a boat factory, or a machine-shop.

If I offer to give that 2,000 oz to you, would that get your attention or would you turn up your nose and tell me "nah, it's only a barbarous relic, I'm really not interested" ?


No matter what else, gold is sought after, even today, just as it has been down through the ages because young desirable women will do incredible things for small trinkets of gold...

That will never change, and the percieved value of gold will always be underpinned by that simple immutable fact of life.
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Old 09-02-2013, 18:54   #214
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Originally Posted by devildog2067 View Post
And yet, you still refuse to put your money where your mouth is.

Let's make the stakes smaller, since you seem unwilling to make a meaningful wager. I have a crisp $100 bill that says gold will not be "repriced" against the dollar. Time horizon on the bet is anything you like. Take the bet or admit you're full of it.
Gold has been 'repriced' against the dollar - by 466% over the last 13 years. Silver by 600%.
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Old 09-02-2013, 21:50   #215
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Gold has been 'repriced' against the dollar - by 466% over the last 13 years. Silver by 600%.
Did you read the thread at all? The OP believes that gold will undergo a one-time repricing event where the prices of other goods remain the same in nominal dollars but gold will be magically worth $55k. It's very different from the price changing on the market.


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Old 09-02-2013, 21:53   #216
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Gold has been 'repriced' against the dollar - by 466% over the last 13 years. Silver by 600%.
All the more reason to not expect another repricing in the near future. Especially one on such a massive scale.
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Old 09-02-2013, 21:56   #217
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And that could never be true of holders of our QE-inflated stock market, could it?
Happens all the time, it's a mistake there just like it's a mistake here.
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Old 09-02-2013, 23:57   #218
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All the more reason to not expect another repricing in the near future. Especially one on such a massive scale.
Or, it is a warning of what is to come.
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Old 09-03-2013, 04:01   #219
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Or, it is a warning of what is to come.
You're committed, that's for sure.
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Old 09-03-2013, 05:09   #220
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Try it. Take 2000 ozt or even just 2 ozt and offer it to someone in exchange for products and services. See how long it takes to find someone to accept it at/near spot or how long for a trade to be settled. Do the same with USD and the settlement time will be much shorter and no one will debate the value of your legal tender.

In my experience, only one dealer (Hannes Tulving) will even touch 2000 ozt at once. Scott Thomas at APMEX may also handle that amount. In full disclosure, I have never sold more than 250 ozt at any one time. Tulving's average turnaround time is one week. His process is as follows:

1) Use his UPS account to ship the gold to him UPS Next Day Air.
2) After UPS accepts the shipment, call him with the amount incoming to lock in the price. That is how he knows you have committed to the deal.
3) He issues you a check three days after the metal arrives and ships it to you via UPS Next Day Air. That is the only way he pays.
4) Bank sits on the check for five business days.

The big problem with gold is that most Americans will not accept it because "cold, hard cash" now means "green pieces of paper with dollar signs". The real scary (ludicrous) thing is that cold, hard cash now means paper instead of metal. Paper is fungible, and the metal, unfortunately, is not. That is why people pay premiums for GAE and Englehard bars while ignoring Sunshine rounds.
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You are correct that most gold "just sits".
How is that really pertenant to the desirability of gold as an asset?

If I have 2,000 troy ounces of 24K gold, I can use that to create a small real-estate development, a boat factory, or a machine-shop.

If I offer to give that 2,000 oz to you, would that get your attention or would you turn up your nose and tell me "nah, it's only a barbarous relic, I'm really not interested" ?


No matter what else, gold is sought after, even today, just as it has been down through the ages because young desirable women will do incredible things for small trinkets of gold...

That will never change, and the percieved value of gold will always be underpinned by that simple immutable fact of life.
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Old 09-03-2013, 05:27   #221
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Did you read the thread at all? The OP believes that gold will undergo a one-time repricing event where the prices of other goods remain the same in nominal dollars but gold will be magically worth $55k. It's very different from the price changing on the market.


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Yep - I read the thread. You posted that you're willing to bet that gold will not be repriced against the dollar. I posted that it already has (repriced).

And guess what - other prices haven't risen as much as gold.

Will it go to $55k - I don't know. Probably, some day, it will. As for "money where my mouth is" - I rode that train all the way to the top - from $4Ag and <$300Au. I listened to all the insults of the posters who were either too stupid or too timid to participate - sour grapes. History, does indeed, repeat itself.
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Old 09-03-2013, 06:37   #222
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Yep - I read the thread. You posted that you're willing to bet that gold will not be repriced against the dollar. I posted that it already has (repriced).
So, you clearly weren't paying attention. The thread was about this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Glocksanity
The BIS basically wakes up one day and says, 'Hey, we buy gold for $55,000 and we sell it for $56,000.

Boom. Paper markets for gold at $1,400 collapses and we have a new price for gold.

Bread is still $2 a loaf. Gas is still $4 a gallon. And everyone holding gold gets a nice bump in real wealth.
When I say "repricing" this is what I mean, since this is what the thread is about, and your repeated attempts to move the goalposts don't make it so.

Quote:
And guess what - other prices haven't risen as much as gold.

Will it go to $55k - I don't know. Probably, some day, it will. As for "money where my mouth is" - I rode that train all the way to the top - from $4Ag and <$300Au. I listened to all the insults of the posters who were either too stupid or too timid to participate - sour grapes. History, does indeed, repeat itself.
The last time gold (call it the price averaged over a year) was under $300 was ~2001-2002. If you invested in gold then, you made quite a bit of money ("nominal dollars" money, at any rate). You beat the hell out of the stock market. Good for you.

But if you had invested in gold the last time it was under $300 before that... that was 1979. Since then, the S&P 500 has delivered a 43x return (dividend-reinvested) in nominal dollars. If you haven't sold your gold yet, you've already missed the peak of the market. At no time between 1979 and 2007 could you have sold your gold for more than a 2x return... and 2007 was just before a huge stock market crash and recession.
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Old 09-03-2013, 17:53   #223
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I just read an interesting article. It is titled "Why Warren Buffett Hates Gold".
Buffett is the third richest man in the world. Acknowledged by virtually all to be the greatest investor in modern times and possibly ever.

Here is his take on gold, and an excerpt:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-wa...120228611.html

"Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce -- gold's price as I write this -- its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
"Let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world's most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
"A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops -- and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond."

"Our country's businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial "cows" will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of "milk" to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well).

"I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner… More important, it will be by far the safest."

I'm sure Glocksanity and the other gold bugs will explain why Mr. Buffett is in error, but I am siding with the guy that that has earned billions understanding business and movements within the free market economy.

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Old 09-03-2013, 18:01   #224
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Okay... In very simple term, if your gold all of a sudden had a price of 55k oz, would you not exchange some if your gold for something else? If not you, wouldn't the other who own gold?

What do you think would happen when the supply of gold for sale skyrockets?

When gold somehow rockets up to that number, I would not be able to afford as much of it, and there are many other assets I could purchase which are relatively cheaper. There would be much less demand for gold. What do you think would happen then?

What a lot of people don't realize is that gold is a wealth insulator. Sure, it can make you money, just like any other bubble, but gold allows you to always have something that is worth something. Look at is this way, back in the 1920's, a $20 gold piece could buy you a cow or a really nice suit. Today, a $20 gold piece can still buy you a cow or a really nice suit.

It's been worth something since the beginning of recorded time pretty much.

Having some precious metals is not a bad idea at all. But, like anything else, you should diversify a bit.
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Old 09-03-2013, 18:07   #225
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I just read an interesting article. It is titled "Why Warren Buffett Hates Gold".
Buffett is the third richest man in the world. Acknowledged by virtually all to be the greatest investor in modern times and possibly ever.

Here is his take on gold, and an excerpt:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-wa...120228611.html

"Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce -- gold's price as I write this -- its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
"Let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world's most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
"A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops -- and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond."

"Our country's businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial "cows" will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of "milk" to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well).

"I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner… More important, it will be by far the safest."

I'm sure Glocksanity and the other gold bugs will explain why Mr. Buffett is in error, but I am siding with the guy that that has earned billions understanding business and movements within the free market economy.

Yeah, you could listen with a guy who might have an agenda, but you might also listen to China, India, Germany, Russia (and others) who are slowly distancing themselves from the dollar and taking physical delivery of Gold.

Oh, and you might be interested to know China wanted theirs tested and it turned out to be fake.
http://www.viewzone.com/fakegold.html
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