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Old 09-01-2013, 14:01   #151
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Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
It probably happens by 2020. Well within my lifetime.

But let's be honest. Are you really going to fork over $55,000 to a stranger on the internet? Heck no.
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Old 09-01-2013, 14:38   #152
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And if the quantity of paper is a significant multiple of the quantity of actual physical metal?
Then the BIS member banks (who ultimately back most of the world's exchanges) get their vaults cleared out of all physical gold that they hold in order to pay off paper gold holders who are the actual legal owners of that physical gold.

Even if there is a 1000X multiplier of paper gold over physical, it is the PAPER gold holders who ultimately own the physical. Once the rush on the exchanges is through, those paper gold holders are the ones who wind up getting paid in physical gold...even if it's at just .01 cent per dollar.

Either way, though, the BIS doesn't get to hang on to their physical gold because the actual legal owners are the paper holders.
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Old 09-01-2013, 14:40   #153
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Originally Posted by Geko45 View Post
It goes down pretty much as tsmo described where the big guys get liquidated to fufill the paper holders and if there isn't enough physical to fufill the paper holders then they get pennies on the dollar and lose too. BIS at best becomes irrelevant and at worst ceases to exist. Everybody loses, BIS knows this and that is why they would never make the move described in the article.

A Nash equilibrium exists when each player knows the best equilbrium strategy of every other player and no player can benefit from an unilateral change in strategy. That is what currently exists in the gold market. For BIS to do as described in the article would force all other market players to change their strategy which would eventually arrive at a new equlibrium that is not beneficial to BIS. BIS is not dumb, they've thought this through and therefore keep the more desirable status quo.

The entire scenario laid out in the article relies on the tinfoilish presumption that BIS can act unilaterally without consequences. This is not the case.



A level at which a Nash equilibrium exists. The exact dollar value is irrelevant.
This.
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Old 09-01-2013, 14:50   #154
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Ha ha ha.

And I bet you know how to get blood from a stone!

Physical trumps paper all day long.

How did all that paper silver work for the Hunts? It didn't. The Hunts cornered the market with paper and were told to pound sand.

Sorry, but you do not know that of which you speak regarding paper gold and physical gold.
Um...NO. The Hunts were the largest physical silver holders in the US and, along with some Arab partners, they attempted to use that physical position to manipulate the paper market in exactly the same was your article claims the BIS would (ie. start dictating new price levels). It didn't end any better for them than it would for the BIS...

http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/educ...hunt_bros.html

In 1979 the sons of patriarch H.L. Hunt, Nelson Bunker and William Herbert, together with some wealthy Arabs, formed a silver pool. In a short period of time they had amassed more than 200 million ounces of silver, equivalent to half the world's deliverable supply.

When the Hunt's had begun accumulating silver back in 1973 the price was in the $1.95 / ounce range. Early in '79, the price was about $5. Late '79 / early '80 the price was in the $50's, peaking at $54.

Once the silver market was cornered, outsiders joined the chase but a combination of changed trading rules on the New York Metals Market (COMEX) and the intervention of the Federal Reserve put an end to the game. The price began to slide, culminating in a 50% one-day decline on March 27, 1980 as the price plummeted from $21.62 to $10.80.

The collapse of the silver market meant countless losses for speculators. The Hunt brothers declared bankruptcy. By 1987 their liabilities had grown to nearly $2.5 billion against assets of $1.5 billion. In August of 1988 the Hunts were convicted of conspiring to manipulate the market.
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Old 09-01-2013, 15:03   #155
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Originally Posted by tsmo1066 View Post
Then the BIS member banks (who ultimately back most of the world's exchanges) get their vaults cleared out of all physical gold that they hold in order to pay off paper gold holders who are the actual legal owners of that physical gold.

Even if there is a 1000X multiplier of paper gold over physical, it is the PAPER gold holders who ultimately own the physical. Once the rush on the exchanges is through, those paper gold holders are the ones who wind up getting paid in physical gold...even if it's at just .01 cent per dollar.

Either way, though, the BIS doesn't get to hang on to their physical gold because the actual legal owners are the paper holders.


Paper holders hold paper. Are you kidding me? Everyone holding paper is going to get Corzined. Or did you not follow the MF Global debacle whereby the paper holders were told to pound sand.

You live in a fantasy world. You really do. You have no clue how the LBMA and COMEX operate, nor do you understand how the bullion banks run a fractional reserve game with gold.

When 1,000 paper claims show up for 1 ounce, it is game over for bullion banks and no sovereign or Central Bank will bail them out. Paper gets paper for pennies on the dollar and gold will be $55,000 and those holding paper will be shocked!
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Old 09-01-2013, 15:07   #156
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Paper holders hold paper. Are you kidding me?
Paper holders hold legally binding paper, and that legally binding paper gives them ownership of the BIS's physical gold.

Unless the BIS is looking to hire a mercenary army to fight off the police around their member bank's physical gold holding areas, the "paper gold" guys WILL get that physical gold.
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Old 09-01-2013, 15:10   #157
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You live in a fantasy world. You really do. You have no clue how the LBMA and COMEX operate...
This from the man who thought the Hunt's tried to use paper silver to corner the physical market when in fact it was the exact opposite. The reality is that the Hunt's destroyed themselves trying to play exactly the same game your article says the BIS could pull off.

Paper trumps physical. If you don't get that, you are living in an alternate reality.
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Old 09-01-2013, 15:13   #158
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Paper holders hold paper. Are you kidding me? Everyone holding paper is going to get Corzined. Or did you not follow the MF Global debacle whereby the paper holders were told to pound sand.

You live in a fantasy world. You really do. You have no clue how the LBMA and COMEX operate, nor do you understand how the bullion banks run a fractional reserve game with gold.

When 1,000 paper claims show up for 1 ounce, it is game over for bullion banks and no sovereign or Central Bank will bail them out. Paper gets paper for pennies on the dollar and gold will be $55,000 and those holding paper will be shocked!
Um...NO. When the paper gets payed out, the gold is SEIZED. The central banks don't get to hang onto that gold after defaulting on their reserve obligations.

Hello?
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Old 09-01-2013, 15:28   #159
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Old 09-01-2013, 15:52   #160
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Originally Posted by tsmo1066 View Post
Then the BIS member banks (who ultimately back most of the world's exchanges) get their vaults cleared out of all physical gold that they hold in order to pay off paper gold holders who are the actual legal owners of that physical gold.

Even if there is a 1000X multiplier of paper gold over physical, it is the PAPER gold holders who ultimately own the physical. Once the rush on the exchanges is through, those paper gold holders are the ones who wind up getting paid in physical gold...even if it's at just .01 cent per dollar.

Either way, though, the BIS doesn't get to hang on to their physical gold because the actual legal owners are the paper holders.
A 100:1 paper to gold ratio is more realistic at the present. Is getting .01 on the dollar good?

These margins are troubling.

Paper gold is the worst of both worlds; a non-income producing asset with counterparty risk.
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Old 09-01-2013, 16:01   #161
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What happens to these big players and the world as a whole after this golden armageddon is implemented? Think it all the way through to its logical end and then work backwards from that. These big players have to live in the world that their decisions create and they are not stupid. They can be counted on to act in their own best rational self interest.

It's no different than why the US and the USSR never went to war. Not losing as bad as the other guy is a far different thing than truly winning. Your proposed scenario would result in an economic "scorched earth" result and they know that.

MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction. Just the kind of market I want to invest in. So this game of chicken is all that is keeping it stable.

So are you saying there is no chance of a disconnect between paper and physical gold?
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Old 09-01-2013, 16:51   #162
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Sorry, I missed this post earlier, but you obviously don't understand his principle at all.
So how exactly does the Nash equilibrium and game theory explain FDR and Nixon and how they changed the rules of the gold game?

If they can do it in one direction, it can be done in the other direction, yes?
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Old 09-01-2013, 16:54   #163
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Um...NO. When the paper gets payed out, the gold is SEIZED. The central banks don't get to hang onto that gold after defaulting on their reserve obligations.

Hello?
You could not be more wrong. All gold contracts have force majeure clauses that allow for default and payment in dollars rather than gold, and the price that gets paid in dollars will be a fraction of what the gold is really worth.

If you think otherwise, you are more than naive. Just a little due diligence would show you the truth of that.
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Old 09-01-2013, 17:06   #164
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You could not be more wrong. All gold contracts have force majeure clauses that allow for default and payment in dollars rather than gold, and the price that gets paid in dollars will be a fraction of what the gold is really worth.

If you think otherwise, you are more than naive. Just a little due diligence would show you the truth of that.
You obviously don't know the meaning of force majeure. It's not an option that can be invoked on a whim. They can't just keep the gold and ignore their contractual obligations.

In reference to your point on simply declaring a new set of "rules", that's the kind of thing that starts wars. I'm not saying it can't happen, but what you are talking about would cause an unpredictable global power shift. That's not the kind of thing you want if you are the guy on top.
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Old 09-01-2013, 17:07   #165
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A 100:1 paper to gold ratio is more realistic at the present. Is getting .01 on the dollar good?

These margins are troubling.

Paper gold is the worst of both worlds; a non-income producing asset with counterparty risk.
Those returns are horrible, and as Gecko45 noted, everyone loses in that scenario. The point, however, is that the BIS, whose member banks ultimately hold (note the word "HOLD" as opposed to "OWN") most of the physical gold backing those futures certificates do not get to simply keep that gold after defaulting on their reserve obligations.

That gold would be confiscated in order to provide the paper gold holders the .01/dollar return that they would get.

So the BIS declares that gold is worth 55k/ounce...there would be a run on gold...the exchanges would go belly up...the central banks with whom the exchanges contract to provide physical gold storage and reserves would have to honor their legal commitments to back whatever they can from those reserves...those reserves would in turn get depleted/confiscated/liquidated...EVERYONE LOSES. The BIS would have nothing left but some empty vaults and a worthless "decree" stating that the gold (which they no longer hold) is worth 55K/ounce.

The BIS knows this. It's a catastrophic "no win" situation and they would be idiots to try to trigger such a cataclysm. There would be no gain to them in the end and it would most likely ruin them in the process.
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Old 09-01-2013, 17:12   #166
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You could not be more wrong. All gold contracts have force majeure clauses that allow for default and payment in dollars rather than gold, and the price that gets paid in dollars will be a fraction of what the gold is really worth.

If you think otherwise, you are more than naive. Just a little due diligence would show you the truth of that.
Wrong again. "Force majeure" literally means "act of God" and it is a term most often applicable to pipeline explosions, hurricanes and other events that forcibly disrupt physical delivery of a commodity. "Force Majeure" cannot be legally called upon in an event that YOU YOURSELF willingly created (such as the BIS declaring gold to be worth 55k/ounce and then trying to call for "Force Majeure" protections in order to avoid having to honor claims against their own gold that result from their own decree.

Force Majeure is not a get-out-of-jail-free card that they can play to protect themselves from their own idiotic business decisions. The courts would demand payment from them in physical gold, as per the futures contracts, and when they fail to pony up, the courts will order that gold confiscated.
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Old 09-01-2013, 17:41   #167
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Um...NO. When the paper gets payed out, the gold is SEIZED. The central banks don't get to hang onto that gold after defaulting on their reserve obligations.

Hello?
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Wrong again. "Force majeure" literally means "act of God" and it is a term most often applicable to pipeline explosions, hurricanes and other events that forcibly disrupt physical delivery of a commodity. "Force Majeure" cannot be legally called upon in an event that YOU YOURSELF willingly created (such as the BIS declaring gold to be worth 55k/ounce and then trying to call for "Force Majeure" protections in order to avoid having to honor claims against their own gold that result from their own decree.

Force Majeure is not a get-out-of-jail-free card that they can play to protect themselves from their own idiotic business decisions. The courts would demand payment from them in physical gold, as per the futures contracts, and when they fail to pony up, the courts will order that gold confiscated.
Just watch and wait and your ignorance will be revealed. And I mean that in the kindest way. You simply don't understand how the paper longs will get hammered and force majeure will be enforced.

It is a get out of jail card for the precious metals scam. Just like Wall Street gets bailed out when they make bad decisions, so will the exchanges. They will not be forced to give up gold! Real simple.
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Old 09-01-2013, 17:51   #168
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Just watch and wait and your ignorance will be revealed. And I mean that in the kindest way. You simply don't understand how the paper longs will get hammered and force majeure will be enforced.

It is a get out of jail card for the precious metals scam. Just like Wall Street gets bailed out when they make bad decisions, so will the exchanges. They will not be forced to give up gold! Real simple.
And here is where the conspiracy theory comes into play.
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Old 09-01-2013, 17:56   #169
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Old 09-01-2013, 18:07   #170
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The banks may be forced to give up their gold - rather than pay in dollars. But, what if they don't actually have the gold. What if they have a paper claim themselves?

Central banks lease gold to bullion banks who sell it on the market. It's a form of 'carry' trade. They gold is sold in order to buy something with higher returns (National bonds?).

The question becomes - who's doing the buying? Will they be willing to part with that gold if the Central bank demands it back from the bullion bank? Think China, India, Turkey... These nations/people have 'strong' hands.

Yes, the banks can be forced to cough up gold instead of dollars - unless... Unless they don't have the gold.

There have been recent examples of entities paying off (gold) investors in dollars. I think there will be more (examples).
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Old 09-01-2013, 18:15   #171
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Just watch and wait and your ignorance will be revealed. And I mean that in the kindest way. You simply don't understand how the paper longs will get hammered and force majeure will be enforced.

It is a get out of jail card for the precious metals scam. Just like Wall Street gets bailed out when they make bad decisions, so will the exchanges. They will not be forced to give up gold! Real simple.
Again, you don't seem to even understand what "force majeur" is.

FYI...Wall Street didn't get bailed out due to a "force majeur" clause. They got bailed out through an act of Congress, and even then the companies that got bailed out had to repay the bailout money.

If you think that the US Congress would bail out the BIS for making an idiotic declaration regarding gold value and then defaulting on their physical delivery obligations following such an act of idiocy, so be it. Hell, maybe in some perverse situation they actually might make such a bailout. But if you think Congress would bail them out and also LET THEM KEEP THE GOLD THEY DEFAULTED ON, you're smoking dope.

There is no situation under which the BIS could make a play like the article describes and somehow still get to hang onto those gold reserves, and the BIS knows this. All they would wind up with is a ruined organization, a bunch of empty vaults, and a worthless post-it note declaring that the gold they no longer have is worth 55k/ounce.
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Old 09-01-2013, 18:19   #172
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and a worthless post-it note
They wouldn't even be able to afford 3M, they'd have to buy generic.
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Old 09-01-2013, 18:22   #173
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The banks may be forced to give up their gold - rather than pay in dollars. But, what if they don't actually have the gold. What if they have a paper claim themselves?

Central banks lease gold to bullion banks who sell it on the market. It's a form of 'carry' trade. They gold is sold in order to buy something with higher returns (National bonds?).

The question becomes - who's doing the buying? Will they be willing to part with that gold if the Central bank demands it back from the bullion bank? Think China, India, Turkey... These nations/people have 'strong' hands.

Yes, the banks can be forced to cough up gold instead of dollars - unless... Unless they don't have the gold.

There have been recent examples of entities paying off (gold) investors in dollars. I think there will be more (examples).
Fair point, but bear in mind that any other entity that leases reserve gold from the BIS or a member state bank also carries as part of that lease a legally binding contractual clause that they must return said gold if the state banks reserves are called upon sufficiently/

Now if the 'bullion bank' is, in fact, a national entity like Turkey or China, then you are absolutely correct that they may say "go to hell" to the BIS, and since they have an army to back their refusal up, things could get nasty. I believe that's what Gecko45 was touching on when he said that's how wars get started.

In any case, we're still back to the fact that the BIS's vaults are empty, their organization is ruined, and they have nothing to show for their little game but some worthless post-it notes "declaring" that gold is worth 55k/ounce.

Why would they want to ruin themselves like that when there is no upside for them?
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Old 09-01-2013, 18:23   #174
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They wouldn't even be able to afford 3M, they'd have to buy generic.
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Old 09-01-2013, 18:42   #175
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And here is where the conspiracy theory comes into play.
No conspiracy. It happens or it doesn't.

I say it will, you say it won't. Most say it won't.

So I am either the fool or the guy that was prophetic and had the vision and courage to see that the current system was no longer working and a big change in the game was coming.

Most people suffer from Col. Jepson syndrome. They can't handle the truth. The truth is, the world is going to abandon the petro-dollar and gold will replace it and that only works if gold is re-priced to about $55,000 or so.

In five years, we will know who was correct.
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