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Old 08-30-2013, 20:13   #126
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Originally Posted by Restless28 View Post
Geko, the goldbugs stand their ground, no matter what. It's useless.
Oh, it's you again...

Lets see, what was the sum total of your contribution to this discussion?

Oh yeah, here it is:

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Originally Posted by Restless28 View Post
.
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Old 08-30-2013, 20:16   #127
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This is becoming exhausting, ..

If the discussion is more than you were prepared for, that's ok.
Have a good night.
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Old 08-30-2013, 20:27   #128
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Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
The fact that I understand game theory and the Nash equilibrium only supports the thesis of $55,000 gold.
Sorry, I missed this post earlier, but you obviously don't understand his principle at all.

Quote:
The big players are sick of holding U.S. dollars and allowing the United States to benefit from Triffinn's dilemma at their expense. Net producers don't want to hold U.S. dollars that become less valuable every year. They want tangible wealth, not paper wealth and will demand a change to gold at a higher price.
What happens to these big players and the world as a whole after this golden armageddon is implemented? Think it all the way through to its logical end and then work backwards from that. These big players have to live in the world that their decisions create and they are not stupid. They can be counted on to act in their own best rational self interest.

It's no different than why the US and the USSR never went to war. Not losing as bad as the other guy is a far different thing than truly winning. Your proposed scenario would result in an economic "scorched earth" result and they know that.

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You just have no clue how the gold game is played behind closed doors, and that is where all the real action is at.
And you do? Please tell us about the closed door meetings that only you and the other elect have been privy too.

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If you think the LBMA and COMEX are the real games in town, you are kidding yourself. They are but the tip of the ice berg that gives the illusion of a real gold market.
Actually, that was Atlas that implied that and not me. I mentioned that I was thinking bigger than that several posts back, but you must have missed it. But then again, you aren't actually reading my posts, are you?
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Old 08-30-2013, 20:33   #129
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If the discussion is more than you were prepared for, that's ok.
Really? Is a back-handed comment really warranted here? I've put forth a lot more effort in explaining my position than either you or Glocksanity. Most of your posts are phrased as open ended and slightly accusatory questions. Lots of implied meaning, but little fact.
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Old 08-30-2013, 23:13   #130
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Sorry, I missed this post earlier, but you obviously don't understand his principle at all.



What happens to these big players and the world as a whole after this golden armageddon is implemented? Think it all the way through to its logical end and then work backwards from that. These big players have to live in the world that their decisions create and they are not stupid. They can be counted on to act in their own best rational self interest.

It's no different than why the US and the USSR never went to war. Not losing as bad as the other guy is a far different thing than truly winning. Your proposed scenario would result in an economic "scorched earth" result and they know that.



And you do? Please tell us about the closed door meetings that only you and the other elect have been privy too.



Actually, that was Atlas that implied that and not me. I mentioned that I was thinking bigger than that several posts back, but you must have missed it. But then again, you aren't actually reading my posts, are you?
Tell me why gold at $55,000 an ounce and floating against all currencies with no gold paper derivatives is a bad thing?

Why is it bad to replace the US dollar's function as both the medium of exchange and store of value function for our world reserve currency and replace it with fiat for medium of exchange and gold for store of value?

You think my suggestion is somehow bad when it is actually a solution to a huge problem.

That is why you are clueless.
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Old 08-31-2013, 02:37   #131
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Really? Is a back-handed comment really warranted here? I've put forth a lot more effort in explaining my position than either you or Glocksanity. Most of your posts are phrased as open ended and slightly accusatory questions. Lots of implied meaning, but little fact.
Sorry, I'm guilty of posting too late into the night, sipping whiskey, and letting Restless' snide drive-by remarks enter into my notice, as well as your comment that "this is becoming exhausting" which was a little backhanded as well (first).

My apologies.

Your posts have been a continual insistence that Nash's game theory covers the entire topic, regardless of all other aspects.

You replied to my suggestion to do a little research into the specifics with the response that you're too busy and you're not really interested.

In short, the essence of your argument was "look, I'm educated and you're not, so pay attention and don't interrupt with anything you think you may know and I'll explain to you how the world works.. it's covered here in my textbook in chapter 23"


I did not say or imply that the LBMA + COMEX are the entire global gold market, far from it. I suggested that you should do some research specific to this market (as opposed to assuming that market theory in general necessarily explains all, Nash's brilliance notwithstanding) and that the LBMA (and its intrigues especially) would seem a logical starting-point. To which you replied "no, I've too much homework" (meaning: "no, don't bother me with specifics, I'm not really interested").


Your textbook theory given as explanation that:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Geko45 View Post
This is becoming exhausting, but the short version is that a major player on the top of the heap isn't going to gamble that position to be even further on top. They are much more likely to realize that the status quo is working for them and it is in their best interests to maintain it. It's typically the smaller players that are willing to risk it all for the chance to catapult into the top tier, but they rarely have the opportunity to influence the market on a grand scale.
As sound as it may be does not begin to address the topic at hand.
Keep in mind, I'm not espousing the article in cited in the OP.


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Old 08-31-2013, 03:47   #132
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Oh, it's you again...

Lets see, what was the sum total of your contribution to this discussion?

Oh yeah, here it is:



Which is pretty much the equivalent of goldbug ranting.
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Old 08-31-2013, 06:20   #133
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Thar’s gold in them hills….of circuit boards.

If gold resets to $55K per ounce while other commodity prices remain unchanged, I’ll be picking through junk electronics for the gold electroplate.
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Old 08-31-2013, 06:27   #134
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The paper gold market reminds me of the mortgage backed securities derivative market a few years back. Everything is fine until it isn’t, then the implosion all seems so crystal clear.

The paper gold market is so much bigger than the actual amount of physical gold it is like a fractional banking system with the risk of a bank run, or in this case a gold run resulting in a price reset.

Yet so far there is no gold backwardation in the futures market indicating no physical shortage.

And new gold eagle bullion sales are way down for August (7K ounces) compared to the 1st 7 months (97K ounces/month average) of this year as people liquidate existing bullion; another recession?
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Old 08-31-2013, 07:39   #135
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The goldbugs on here have been continuously saying (some implying, some rudely stating) that people that don't agree with them either need to do further study or flat out don't know what they are talking about. I mentioned my professional experience in equity markets (at TD Ameritrade) and academic experience in energy markets and gave a rational explanation (supported by economic theory) why dramatic shifts as suggested in the original article rarely happen and why those extreme conditions don't last long when they do. I did so in direct rebuttal to their statements.

All I've heard in response is the typical rambling about returning to a gold standard and the failings of a fiat monetary system. Well, they've got to do better than that. Why should we accept their analysis over anyone else's? Why should I accept their analysis over mine? To what extent have they studied this topic academically and to what extent have they worked in financial markets professionally? Why should I believe that they can see they Black Swan event before it happens when no one else can?

Gold has had its best bull run in a generation because we encountered the worst recession since the Great Depression. It was a flight to safety, that's all. Every indication is that we are recovering (albeit slowly) and that recovery can be inversely seen in the more recent decline in gold. It was a great time for commodities, but that doesn't seem to be enough for the goldbugs. We have to endure fairy tails of $50k+ gold that are never going to happen. And we don't have to guess at that, all we have to do is watch the market. It ain't gonna happen, I assure you.
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Old 08-31-2013, 07:51   #136
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I read the article.

The biggest problem with it is that there is this assumption that gold will go this high because gold has to have "flow". This is similar to a velocity of money argument, but it is being argued from the point of gold coin collectors not being able to get their coins.

The problem with this argument is, there is no requirement for gold to "flow". And where gold needs to "flow" is in industrial uses and there is no shortage of gold for industrial uses.

The rest of the uses are jewelery.

All the rest is just having gold. But there is no requirement for any type of flow out of the big depositories. Therefore, the entire argument is based upon an assumption that is not true.
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Old 08-31-2013, 10:51   #137
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Which is pretty much the equivalent of goldbug ranting.
Golman Sachs issues a 'sell' on gold in April, and at the same time buys more GLD than anyone. ha ha ha. Goldman Sachs is a closet gold bug!!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-amount-gld-q2
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Old 08-31-2013, 10:58   #138
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The goldbugs on here have been continuously saying (some implying, some rudely stating) that people that don't agree with them either need to do further study or flat out don't know what they are talking about. I mentioned my professional experience in equity markets (at TD Ameritrade) and academic experience in energy markets and gave a rational explanation (supported by economic theory) why dramatic shifts as suggested in the original article rarely happen and why those extreme conditions don't last long when they do. I did so in direct rebuttal to their statements.
Are you saying you are the only one professional enough to handle the gold issue? We all know how that ends up.

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All I've heard in response is the typical rambling about returning to a gold standard and the failings of a fiat monetary system. Well, they've got to do better than that. Why should we accept their analysis over anyone else's? Why should I accept their analysis over mine? To what extent have they studied this topic academically and to what extent have they worked in financial markets professionally? Why should I believe that they can see they Black Swan event before it happens when no one else can?
You don't have to accept anything. Like I stated before, I posted this so I can laugh at all those that laughed, ridiculed, rejected, and got all high and mighty about how stupid this sounds. So keep up your rebuttals. You are just digging a bigger hole for your crow eating session when gold explodes.

And there are lots of people who do see this black swan. I am one. Too bad you cannot.

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Gold has had its best bull run in a generation because we encountered the worst recession since the Great Depression. It was a flight to safety, that's all. Every indication is that we are recovering (albeit slowly) and that recovery can be inversely seen in the more recent decline in gold. It was a great time for commodities, but that doesn't seem to be enough for the goldbugs. We have to endure fairy tails of $50k+ gold that are never going to happen. And we don't have to guess at that, all we have to do is watch the market. It ain't gonna happen, I assure you.
It will and when it does, how do you like your crow?
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Old 08-31-2013, 11:02   #139
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I read the article.

The biggest problem with it is that there is this assumption that gold will go this high because gold has to have "flow". This is similar to a velocity of money argument, but it is being argued from the point of gold coin collectors not being able to get their coins.
Just the opposite. It is not about the little guy having gold flow, it is about the net producers and oil nations having gold flow.

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The problem with this argument is, there is no requirement for gold to "flow". And where gold needs to "flow" is in industrial uses and there is no shortage of gold for industrial uses.
But there is a requirement for gold to flow among net producers and oil states. That is what most don't understand. And that flow is drying up. Just because you don't read about it in the WSJ, doesn't mean it is not happening.


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All the rest is just having gold. But there is no requirement for any type of flow out of the big depositories. Therefore, the entire argument is based upon an assumption that is not true.
So why are Central banks buying and hoarding gold hand over fist right now?
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Old 08-31-2013, 11:12   #140
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And you do? Please tell us about the closed door meetings that only you and the other elect have been privy too.
First Tuesday night of every month following the first Monday. You didn't get the memo?
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Old 08-31-2013, 11:57   #141
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You guys still typing? I guess it's time to ask your court appointed psychiatrists to not use the old generics for your prescription. Time for the good stuff.

Simply, if gold is going to $50,000 per oz then why are all these gold companies shilling gold sales? wouldn't they want to hang on to it?

Secondly, why aren't the the mutibilliobillionares buying gold mines and moving out of the market? I'd think they may have better info than one can pull up on google or get from Alex Jones.

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Old 08-31-2013, 18:53   #142
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But there is a requirement for gold to flow among net producers and oil states. That is what most don't understand. And that flow is drying up. Just because you don't read about it in the WSJ, doesn't mean it is not happening.
What requirement is there for gold to flow. You are claiming there is a requirement.

Lets say we make this argument not about gold, but about highly collectable cars. Think like $30M ferarris and bugattis. Is there a requirement for these to flow for them to have value?

So what requirement is there for "flow" between banks? Please explain why they need to trade gold between them and have it physically move.
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Old 08-31-2013, 19:13   #143
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You guys still typing? I guess it's time to ask your court appointed psychiatrists to not use the old generics for your prescription. Time for the good stuff.

Simply, if gold is going to $50,000 per oz then why are all these gold companies shilling gold sales? wouldn't they want to hang on to it?

Secondly, why aren't the the mutibilliobillionares buying gold mines and moving out of the market? I'd think they may have better info than one can pull up on google or get from Alex Jones.
Game. Set. Match.

Goldbugs lose.
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Old 08-31-2013, 22:38   #144
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Game. Set. Match.

Goldbugs lose.
There is going to be a shortage of crow when all you bashers start eating!!
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Old 08-31-2013, 23:48   #145
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There is going to be a shortage of crow when all you bashers start eating!!
So name the places and prices you are buying your gold.
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Old 09-01-2013, 05:44   #146
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There is going to be a shortage of crow when all you bashers start eating!!
Have you given a timetable? If gold goes to $50,000 in 2375, it's not going to do you any good. If you do have a timetable, care to make a wager?
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Old 09-01-2013, 09:18   #147
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Please observe that I make no predictions regarding the future price of gold or of any other market. Not for tomorrow nor next year, nor 100 years into the future.


Your point about the U.S. reserves of energy is significant.. the modern industrial economy is based on energy + brainpower, not gold or the "dollar".


"Dollar" in quotation-marks because the Fed Reserve NOTE is not a dollar, but rather is a bank-note denominated in dollars, as you know. I'm confident though that many here do not realize this and it is central to this discussion..

It's true, and significantly so that the future looks brighter because of our domestic energy reserves (combined with the U.S.' demonstrated ability to apply brainpower to the task of utilizing energy to create industrial productivity.

Can we assume though that the destabilizing force of ever-accelerating deficit spending which manifests as currency devaluation can be overcome by increased productivity, even in consideration of our apparently brighter energy future? I'm not certain that anyone here can safely make that assumption.

That term "normalcy bias" I think has a real place in this discussion..

The price of gold? The survival of the "dollar" as a reserve currency? The probability of the dollar's survival in event of loss of that status as reserve?

As the man said "making predictions is tough... especially about the future".
When making predictions, we're forced to meld what we know (as empirical knowledge) with our expectations and assumptions based on the past.

We're now in many significant ways standing in a place which has no precedence.
This is a great analysis of the situation.
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Old 09-01-2013, 11:48   #148
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There is going to be a shortage of crow when all you bashers start eating!!
You've been spewing this BS for 18 months already. When will it happen? A year? 5?

What are you willing to wager? $100? An ounce of gold? I will bet you an ounce of gold that in 5 years, gold will not have undergone a repricing. Care to take me up on it?


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Old 09-01-2013, 13:53   #149
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You've been spewing this BS for 18 months already. When will it happen? A year? 5?

What are you willing to wager? $100? An ounce of gold? I will bet you an ounce of gold that in 5 years, gold will not have undergone a repricing. Care to take me up on it?


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It probably happens by 2020. Well within my lifetime.

But let's be honest. Are you really going to fork over $55,000 to a stranger on the internet? Heck no.
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Old 09-01-2013, 13:55   #150
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So name the places and prices you are buying your gold.
APMEX and CNI are good places to buy.

As to what prices I paid? Doesn't matter. Just stack!
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