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Old 08-30-2013, 16:10   #101
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Which happens first -

Houston Astros win the world series or gold goes above $50K? Its a toss up!
Gold to $50K.That's a no brainer.
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Old 08-30-2013, 17:13   #102
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Why $50k? Why not 2k, 25k, 100k, 1 mill?

And the second question.. When?

I have hard numbers to back up my investments and valuations, do you?

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Old 08-30-2013, 17:20   #103
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Why $50k? Why not 2k, 25k, 100k, 1 mill?

And the second question.. When?

I have hard numbers to back up my investments and valuations, do you?
2K in the next decade or so is a possibility(I didn't say it will happen, just that it is possible), the others not so much.
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Old 08-30-2013, 17:20   #104
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2 lbs. about 32 ounces, and at $55K an ounce, that is close to $1.7 million. Not quite Bill Gates, but not a bad return on a $50K investment (insurance policy).

Keep up the mocking!! It only makes the final end game more enjoyable. I can laugh and laugh at your expense, literally.
In order for gold to reach $55K/ounce, economic TEOTWAWKI would need to take place. That is happening in Greece and Crete. Are people abandoning paper currencies in those countries?

Hyperinflation - Bread would become $500 a loaf and gas $1500 a gallon.

You read too many blogs/gold sale sites that make money from gold fever/snakeoil sales.

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I know, hard to believe, but then again, when history has shown time and time again that gold is king...

You have to understand that the oil producing nations love gold. Asians love gold. And these blocs are net producers. Net producers want to put their wealth into something other than paper. Oil producers and Asians love to save in gold. So, when they get sick of holding dollars, they will want to hold gold. But there are so many dollars out there, that they could buy all the gold with pocket change at these prices. So, if you can't print gold, you need the price to sky rocket to balance the world's books, so to speak.

Time will prove me correct. Get on the gold train! It is leaving the station soon.
That had already been factored in the today's price of gold. Your posts regarding gold read like Gunkid's masterbatorial apocalyptic Mississippi river mercenary escapades. Do you have a Tactical Wheelbarrow to move your precious commodities?
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Old 08-30-2013, 17:36   #105
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So if game theory and the Nash equilibrium are so important and set in stone, why would FDR close the gold window for Americans and Nixon close the gold window for foreign holders of U.S. dollars?

This is no different than those actions, just in the opposite direction.

Of course there will be economic upsets, but to not do so would cause even more problems. Remember when liquidity froze in 2008 in financial markets? Well, that is just the tip of the iceberg when it come to gold liquidity freezing. This solves the biggest money problem of all, the flow of gold.
This was done to force people into using the dollar as an exclusive means of payment of goods and services. Monopolistic control over state run currencies.
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Old 08-30-2013, 17:42   #106
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2K in the next decade or so is a possibility(I didn't say it will happen, just that it is possible), the others not so much.
Why 2K?
What defines that limit at 2K?
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Old 08-30-2013, 17:50   #107
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That is exactly my point. Savers get killed by inflation. And they get killed because the store of value function and medium of exchange functions are both US dollar based.

Under a Freegold system, they are bifurcated. Paper gold is eliminated and when currencies inflate, gold rises in value to keep up with inflation. That is the beauty of that system. It actually rewards savers. Investors still get to invest, banks still get to lend, debtors still get to borrow, but savers are rewarded rather than punished for saving. That is a fair system. Any system that punishes savers is not fair.

So it is you that don't know what you are talking about. Our current system forces everyone to become a speculator to keep up with inflation and Wall Street is the Casino. Risk is mis-priced and capital is mis-allocated and you end up with the mess we now. And if you don't think we have a mess, you are clueless.
All modern systems punish savers in the context you are describing.

Most investing is not speculating.

ETA - for your system that helps savers to work all important economies on Earth would have to adopt similar plans. If not the saving countries would be totally dominated by the investing countries within a few years.
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Old 08-30-2013, 17:51   #108
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Why 2K?
What defines that limit at 2K?
You could do a one/multivariate regression analysis based off historical data and use your output equation to predict the future value... (Im not a fan of such techniques but people use it everyday) Is that how 50k came about? I obviously do not know how he got to that number and would like to learn, show me as I'm just guessing.


A bid/ask of 55k-56k is just so precise, there's no way that the blog writer Just guessed that right?

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Old 08-30-2013, 18:07   #109
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You could do a one/multivariate regression analysis based off historical data and use your output equation to predict the future value... (Im not a fan of such techniques but people use it everyday)...
Fair enough but...
How would you factor in
The Okie Corral


And how would you factor for the vast portion of the international market in gold that is almost totally opaque?
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Old 08-30-2013, 18:09   #110
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With this I can easily agree.
I suggest though that you give some thought to the reason that this is the exact literal truth.

I think this discussion is centered on the intentions and goals of those same banks and international financial entities.

You are assuming to understand their priorities and goals within the context of an international fiscal crises created by the ongoing devaluation of those same entities' paper.

[...]

On what do you base this, within the global gold market?

I suggest that a study of the LBMA and the Comex is essential to any real understanding of the international gold markets.
Are you aware of what I am referring to when I discuss "Nash equilibrium"? Are you aware of his work (beyond the movie with Russell Crowe) and how it it relates to markets such as these? I feel like I'm trying to talk to you about the forest and you keep wanting to exam the trees.

Yes, I know how commodities markets work. They really aren't that difficult to understand. Learning to read market signals well for success as a trader can take years, but their basic operation is quite simple. I have professional experience with equity markets and academic experience in energy markets, so I don't feel completely unqualified to discuss traditional commodities.

Going back to a Nash equilibrium, the beauty of the theory is that you don't really have to understand the individual motives of each player in order to come up with a pretty good idea of how the "game" will play out. I know that this seems counterintuitive, but you can pretty much rely on any person or entity doing what is in their best interests given the situation at the time they have to make the decision.

I would suggest you study game theory and its implications for what initially appear to be complex markets. It is an insightful way of cutting through the noise and arriving at the most likely outcome. There is a reason why he won the Nobel Prize for it.
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Old 08-30-2013, 18:25   #111
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Are you aware of what I am referring to when I discuss "Nash equilibrium"? Are you aware of his work (beyond the movie with Russell Crowe) and how it it relates to markets such as these? I feel like I'm trying to talk to you about the forest and you keep wanting to exam the trees.

Yes, I know how commodities markets work. They really aren't that difficult to understand. Learning to read market signals well for success as a trader can take years, but their basic operation is quite simple. I have professional experience with equity markets and academic experience in energy markets, so I don't feel completely unqualified to discuss traditional commodities.

Going back to a Nash equilibrium, the beauty of the theory is that you don't really have to understand the individual motives of each player in order to come up with a pretty good idea of how the "game" will play out. I know that this seems counterintuitive, but you can pretty much rely on any person or entity doing what is in their best interests given the situation at the time they have to make the decision.

I would suggest you study game theory and its implications for what initially appear to be complex markets. It is an insightful way of cutting through the noise and arriving at the most likely outcome. There is a reason why he won the Nobel Prize for it.
Yes I understand Nash's principal...
Almost certainly not at your level, but I am familiar with it.


That forest is made up of trees though.

All the best education specific to such study may be applied only with sufficient information.

"Commodities markets", OK.
Not all commodities markets are the same are they?
Yes, within specific trading realms the same principals apply, and when/where the laws are close then the same legalities and regulations apply.

Before you can accurately generalize about any particular market (gold in this case) you will need to know how it may differ from others.


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...
... you can pretty much rely on any person or entity doing what is in their best interests given the situation at the time they have to make the decision.
Your assumption here is that
a) you have a knowledge of who "any person or entity" may be in this context
b) You know which "given situation" applies.
c) You have some understanding of what defines the "time they have to make the decision" with regard to the gold market.

I would contend that without some study specific to the gold market internationally, you do not and cannot.
If that be the case, then you are unable to apply Nash's principals.
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Old 08-30-2013, 18:43   #112
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Yes, I know how commodities markets work. They really aren't that difficult to understand. Learning to read market signals well for success as a trader can take years, but their basic operation is quite simple. I have professional experience with equity markets and academic experience in energy markets, so I don't feel completely unqualified to discuss traditional commodities.

Going back to a Nash equilibrium, the beauty of the theory is that you don't really have to understand the individual motives of each player in order to come up with a pretty good idea of how the "game" will play out. I know that this seems counterintuitive, but you can pretty much rely on any person or entity doing what is in their best interests given the situation at the time they have to make the decision.

I would suggest you study game theory and its implications for what initially appear to be complex markets. It is an insightful way of cutting through the noise and arriving at the most likely outcome. There is a reason why he won the Nobel Prize for it.
The fact that I understand game theory and the Nash equilibrium only supports the thesis of $55,000 gold.

The big players are sick of holding U.S. dollars and allowing the United States to benefit from Triffinn's dilemma at their expense. Net producers don't want to hold U.S. dollars that become less valuable every year. They want tangible wealth, not paper wealth and will demand a change to gold at a higher price.

You just have no clue how the gold game is played behind closed doors, and that is where all the real action is at. If you think the LBMA and COMEX are the real games in town, you are kidding yourself. They are but the tip of the ice berg that gives the illusion of a real gold market.

You will see soon enough.
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Old 08-30-2013, 18:45   #113
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All valid points, but you're failing to take into account several pertinent facts:

1. Because the supply of gold is limited, and the demand is virtually unlimited, then gold could be characterized as hyperdeflationary by nature. Counter-intuitive, I know, but it's Economics 101.

2. All of the big players are protected from the "Gold Armageddon" with default currency swaps through certain banks in Zurich, which shall go unnamed.

3. There are certain groups of extremely powerful people that have a vested interest in the price of gold having a ceiling. Let's just say that if the price starts to skyrocket, as posited here, then they would take whatever action is necessary to prevent a meltdown. Their ability to control markets is beyond your wildest dreams.

4. And all of that is without considering the ever-growing effect of Bitcoin and other non-fiat, crypto-currencies.

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Old 08-30-2013, 18:48   #114
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Most investing is not speculating.
Anytime there is counter party risk, it is speculation.

See Enron for an example.

Nobody got hurt when housing bubble burst, right?

Never any fraud on Wall Street?

Gotcha!
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Old 08-30-2013, 18:53   #115
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Anytime there is counter party risk, it is speculation.

See Enron for an example.

Nobody got hurt when housing bubble burst, right?

Never any fraud on Wall Street?

Gotcha!

Dude you live on a different planet.
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Old 08-30-2013, 18:55   #116
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Do a little research into the LBMA and come back to tell me the extent to which studies of market principals may be applied to the gold markets.
Sorry, I have enough homework assigned by my professors in graduate school.

Quote:
Your assumption here is that
a) you have a knowledge of who "any person or entity" may be in this context
b) You know which "given situation" applies.
c) What defines the "time they have to make the decision".
All I can say is that you seem stuck in traditionalist thinking here. As was pointed out earlier, there are only a handful of large institutional players and the given situation is a hypothesized revaluation of gold to plus $50k per ounce. The timing is now given current market conditions. The predictable outcome given those factors is a "lose" for the player that would have to make the choice (BIS) so this entire branch of the game tree can be safely ignored.
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Old 08-30-2013, 19:04   #117
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... there are only a handful of large institutional players ...
Really?
And we know this.... how?

Who would those few players be?
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Old 08-30-2013, 19:14   #118
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Really?
And we know this.... how?

Who would those few players be?
The OP's article doesn't name them, but it is very insistent that a small number of very large players keep the lower markets supplied. Are you suggesting that the article is incorrect in this regard? How many entities do you imagine could afford to amass large caches of gold?
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Old 08-30-2013, 19:18   #119
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Geko...

I apologize if I'm being stubborn.

Think of it this way..
The "allure" of gold, the affinity of humans to gold, has spanned cultures and continents since before recorded history.
For all the assertions that gold is today no more than a "barbarous relic", it's held by governments, central banks, corporations, and even major universities.

Given that, how could you believe that the market would NOT be subject to endless manipulation and a thousand layers of intrigue?

Think of the single fundamental difference between gold and almost every other commodity on earth: Most gold is held, not consumed.
People here have argued at length about whether gold is (or is not) "an investment", or "only speculation", or "a store of value".

My response to all that debate is that gold is.. simply what it is.
The question I've posed in the past here is "of all substances on earth, what is more definitive than gold?".


I post in these threads because so many want to contribute opinions but when you ask, most will reveal that they know no more about the reality of gold in the modern world than they know of politics on the 4th moon of Saturn.
It really is an extremely complex, multi-faceted market around the globe.
I've spent some time in learning something about it, for years.
Even so, what I've learned is that most of us will never be able to know much..


I don't personally predict what the dollar price of gold may be tomorrow or next year.
I have no idea at all, none. Nor do I really care. More so than anything else I know, "it is what it is".



.
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Old 08-30-2013, 19:32   #120
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Given that, how could you believe that the market would NOT be subject to endless manipulation and a thousand layers of intrigue?
I don't believe that at all. I'm watching "Gold Rush" on Discovery right now. This program is all one needs to see to know the impact that "gold fever" has on the human psyche. It's the reason people risk life and limb to extract a metal with limited practical uses from the ground. It's the reason why people pay four figures to own an ounce of a metal they have no direct use for. It's also why many daydream of it soaring to five figures per ounce. Isn't that more than enough concession for the psychological aspects of the quest for gold?

However, it is important to remember that all of these factors are what pushes the market towards the Nash equilibrium, not away from it. They are "built in" to the market and no further allowance needs to be made for them.
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Old 08-30-2013, 19:36   #121
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I don't believe that at all. I'm watching "Gold Rush" on Discovery right now. This program is all one needs to see to know the impact that "gold fever" has on the human psyche. It's the reason people risk life and limb to extract a metal with limited practical uses from the ground. It's the reason why people pay four figures to own an ounce of a metal they have no direct use for. It's also why many daydream of it soaring to five figures per ounce. Isn't that more than enough concession for the psychological aspect of the quest for gold?

However, that all these aspects are what pushes the market toward the Nash equilibrium, not away from it.

Please explain.
I fail to see how all that denies a market manipulated in almost every possible way conceivable.
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Old 08-30-2013, 19:45   #122
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However, it is important to remember that all of these factors are what pushes the market towards the Nash equilibrium, not away from it. They are "built in" to the market and no further allowance needs to be made for them.
Derivatives distort markets. Paper gold distorts the price of gold and its true value.

If all the longs took delivery, the Comex and LBMA would go under. You do know that, yes?

If the Comex and LBMA were strickly a cash exchange, you would see the value and price of gold much closer together than they are now. But as it stands, paper gold gives the illusion that gold is available at this price. But it is not. It is only available at the paper price in small quantities.

Freegold gets rid of paper gold. That is the huge difference between what we have now and what will be.

A paper claim on gold is not gold. Gold is gold.
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Old 08-30-2013, 19:52   #123
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Please explain.
I fail to see how all that denies a market manipulated in almost every possible way conceivable.
This is becoming exhausting, but the short version is that a major player on the top of the heap isn't going to gamble that position to be even further on top. They are much more likely to realize that the status quo is working for them and it is in their best interests to maintain it. It's typically the smaller players that are willing to risk it all for the chance to catapult into the top tier, but they rarely have the opportunity to influence the market on a grand scale.
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Old 08-30-2013, 20:01   #124
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Geko, the goldbugs stand their ground, no matter what. It's useless.
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Old 08-30-2013, 20:06   #125
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Geko, the goldbugs stand their ground, no matter what. It's useless.
*sigh*

Indeed.
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Nov 11, 2013 at 11:42