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Old 08-29-2013, 23:19   #51
Glocksanity
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So let me get this straight. My gas, bread and electric prices stay the same. Autos cost the same. Houses cost the same. Only the price of gold has increased?

Yeah...I can live in that world fine.

Relax..everything's going to be OK....
Bingo! We have a winner. Let me guess. about a 760 on the SAT's in English?

I know, hard to believe, but then again, when history has shown time and time again that gold is king...

You have to understand that the oil producing nations love gold. Asians love gold. And these blocs are net producers. Net producers want to put their wealth into something other than paper. Oil producers and Asians love to save in gold. So, when they get sick of holding dollars, they will want to hold gold. But there are so many dollars out there, that they could buy all the gold with pocket change at these prices. So, if you can't print gold, you need the price to sky rocket to balance the world's books, so to speak.

Again, this is a whole new concept for Western minds. Not so much in Middle and Far East.

Time will prove me correct. Get on the gold train! It is leaving the station soon.
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Old 08-30-2013, 03:05   #52
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Gold! Gold is the future!! You know that the dollar is in trouble!!! When the economy collapses only gold will have value!!!!

Right now we are selling gold to help you!!!!!

(You know the drill...)
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Old 08-30-2013, 03:41   #53
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Actually, I don't expect anyone to read it. I am just collecting names so I know who to laugh at when gold goes to $55,000.
And when will this be happening? A month from now? A year?

Put your money where your mouth is.
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Old 08-30-2013, 04:10   #54
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I read somewhere that to put us back on the gold standard gold would have to be $50,000+/ Oz. I think in that case, maybe the price of goods wouldn't move much.
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Old 08-30-2013, 06:39   #55
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I read somewhere that to put us back on the gold standard gold would have to be $50,000+/ Oz. I think in that case, maybe the price of goods wouldn't move much.
Will never happen.

But even if it did.

Think about it - if the price of everything stays about the same as now - but the price of gold is "set" to $50K - people would want to sell gold like crazy - but no one would want to (or could afford to) buy - price would drop like a rock.

Just look at how many people were selling scrap gold when the price hit $1,800+.
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Old 08-30-2013, 07:29   #56
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Bingo! We have a winner. Let me guess. about a 760 on the SAT's in English?

I know, hard to believe, but then again, when history has shown time and time again that gold is king...

You have to understand that the oil producing nations love gold. Asians love gold. And these blocs are net producers. Net producers want to put their wealth into something other than paper. Oil producers and Asians love to save in gold. So, when they get sick of holding dollars, they will want to hold gold. But there are so many dollars out there, that they could buy all the gold with pocket change at these prices. So, if you can't print gold, you need the price to sky rocket to balance the world's books, so to speak.

Again, this is a whole new concept for Western minds. Not so much in Middle and Far East.

Time will prove me correct. Get on the gold train! It is leaving the station soon.

Soooo. If Gold moves to $50k an ounce and everyone who didn't buy gold is left behind but nothing in their life changes...who is going to pay you $50k/oz for your gold?
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Old 08-30-2013, 07:49   #57
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Everyone asserts that there can be no radical (by today's market rate) upheaval in the price of precious metals, and yet the counterpoint is still:


what defines the limits of (the ongoing) devaluation of the dollar?



.
IMO the dollar could go to zero and gold, although normal world markets would be dead most likely, would not go to $55K per ounce.

But what if it did.
Industry would substitute where it could. At $55K per ounce we could pull gold out of sea water - better yet gold rich river waters. If it stayed at $55K we could mine gold from the moon. Reasonable reports exist claiming large quantities of gold in and around Antarctica and the Arctic.

Back to reality. Because The US has, almost without question, the greatest stores of BTU value (oil, gas, coal + sunshine and wind) of any country on earth our money can't go to zero and over the next few years - assuming the EPA does not pull the plug - our economy should begin to improve due to internalizing some of the monies (GDP share) previously sent away to the middle east.


IMO short term things look really crappy de-stabilized Middle East, 100% incompetent US foreign policy, specter of a bounce in interest rates etc. Longer term things look a lot better mainly due to energy.
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Old 08-30-2013, 07:50   #58
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Soooo. If Gold moves to $50k an ounce and everyone who didn't buy gold is left behind but nothing in their life changes...who is going to pay you $50k/oz for your gold?
LOL! Exactly.
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Old 08-30-2013, 07:52   #59
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Bingo! We have a winner. Let me guess. about a 760 on the SAT's in English?

I know, hard to believe, but then again, when history has shown time and time again that gold is king...

You have to understand that the oil producing nations love gold. Asians love gold. And these blocs are net producers. Net producers want to put their wealth into something other than paper. Oil producers and Asians love to save in gold. So, when they get sick of holding dollars, they will want to hold gold. But there are so many dollars out there, that they could buy all the gold with pocket change at these prices. So, if you can't print gold, you need the price to sky rocket to balance the world's books, so to speak.

Again, this is a whole new concept for Western minds. Not so much in Middle and Far East.

Time will prove me correct. Get on the gold train! It is leaving the station soon.

Pop quiz. When was the all time inflation adjusted price for gold set? Silver?
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Old 08-30-2013, 08:57   #60
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IMO the dollar could go to zero and gold, although normal world markets would be dead most likely, would not go to $55K per ounce.

But what if it did.
Industry would substitute where it could. At $55K per ounce we could pull gold out of sea water - better yet gold rich river waters. If it stayed at $55K we could mine gold from the moon. Reasonable reports exist claiming large quantities of gold in and around Antarctica and the Arctic.

Back to reality. Because The US has, almost without question, the greatest stores of BTU value (oil, gas, coal + sunshine and wind) of any country on earth our money can't go to zero and over the next few years - assuming the EPA does not pull the plug - our economy should begin to improve due to internalizing some of the monies (GDP share) previously sent away to the middle east.


IMO short term things look really crappy de-stabilized Middle East, 100% incompetent US foreign policy, specter of a bounce in interest rates etc. Longer term things look a lot better mainly due to energy.
Please observe that I make no predictions regarding the future price of gold or of any other market. Not for tomorrow nor next year, nor 100 years into the future.


Your point about the U.S. reserves of energy is significant.. the modern industrial economy is based on energy + brainpower, not gold or the "dollar".


"Dollar" in quotation-marks because the Fed Reserve NOTE is not a dollar, but rather is a bank-note denominated in dollars, as you know. I'm confident though that many here do not realize this and it is central to this discussion..

It's true, and significantly so that the future looks brighter because of our domestic energy reserves (combined with the U.S.' demonstrated ability to apply brainpower to the task of utilizing energy to create industrial productivity.

Can we assume though that the destabilizing force of ever-accelerating deficit spending which manifests as currency devaluation can be overcome by increased productivity, even in consideration of our apparently brighter energy future? I'm not certain that anyone here can safely make that assumption.

That term "normalcy bias" I think has a real place in this discussion..

The price of gold? The survival of the "dollar" as a reserve currency? The probability of the dollar's survival in event of loss of that status as reserve?

As the man said "making predictions is tough... especially about the future".
When making predictions, we're forced to meld what we know (as empirical knowledge) with our expectations and assumptions based on the past.

We're now in many significant ways standing in a place which has no precedence.
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Old 08-30-2013, 08:59   #61
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Originally Posted by Glocksanity View Post
FOFOA really does a good job of explaining how this happens.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2013/08/five.html

The BIS basically wakes up one day and says, 'Hey, we buy gold for $55,000 and we sell it for $56,000.

Boom. Paper markets for gold at $1,400 collapses and we have a new price for gold.

Bread is still $2 a loaf. Gas is still $4 a gallon. And everyone holding gold gets a nice bump in real wealth.

Why does the BIS do this? Read the article and find out!!

OK, but if gold is $55,000 I'm not buying any.
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Old 08-30-2013, 09:10   #62
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OK, but if gold is $55,000 I'm not buying any.
You wouldn't be alone. The average American household would have to work more than a year, not even thinking about paying taxes, forgo food, shelter, and everything else in order to buy an ounce of gold.

When in American history, before or after money printing has that been true?

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Old 08-30-2013, 09:22   #63
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You wouldn't be alone. The average American household would have to work more than a year, not even thinking about paying taxes, forgo food, shelter, and everything else in order to buy an ounce of gold.

When in American history, before or after money printing has that been true?

When in American history have we had so many years of accumulated IOU's circulated worldwide in your and my ("the average American household") name?
Never before today.
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Old 08-30-2013, 09:23   #64
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Please observe that I make no predictions regarding the future price of gold or of any other market. Not for tomorrow nor next year, nor 100 years into the future.


Your point about the U.S. reserves of energy is significant.. the modern industrial economy is based on energy + brainpower, not gold or the "dollar".


"Dollar" in quotation-marks because the Fed Reserve NOTE is not a dollar, but rather is a bank-note denominated in dollars, as you know. I'm confident though that many here do not realize this and it is central to this discussion..

It's true, and significantly so that the future looks brighter because of our domestic energy reserves (combined with the U.S.' demonstrated ability to apply brainpower to the task of utilizing energy to create industrial productivity.

Can we assume though that the destabilizing force of ever-accelerating deficit spending which manifests as currency devaluation can be overcome by increased productivity, even in consideration of our apparently brighter energy future? I'm not certain that anyone here can safely make that assumption.

That term "normalcy bias" I think has a real place in this discussion..

The price of gold? The survival of the "dollar" as a reserve currency? The probability of the dollar's survival in event of loss of that status as reserve?

As the man said "making predictions is tough... especially about the future".
When making predictions, we're forced to meld what we know (as empirical knowledge) with our expectations and assumptions based on the past.

We're now in many significant ways standing in a place which has no precedence.
Great post. Let me think about it.
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Old 08-30-2013, 09:28   #65
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When in American history have we had so many years of accumulated IOU's circulated worldwide in your and my ("the average American household") name?
Never before today.
That is true, you are right, no one is questioning or debating that fact.

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Old 08-30-2013, 09:59   #66
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Game theory plays a big part in evaluating markets like this. The author proposes a scenario where the big gold players would supposedly have every motivation to buy and hold, but no motivation to sell. That is unless a dramatic revaluation of gold takes place in order to provide that motivation and thereby "unlock" the market. But that is an oversimplification of the decision making process. One must consider the global ramifications of $50k+ gold per ounce and what that would do to economies around the world. Even the biggest of players still has to live in this world and they aren't stupid. They know that a dramatic revaluation and upheavel would cause unpredictable and high risk scenarios that could come back around and have severe negative impacts on them directly. Therefore, it is better to hold pat then to take that risk even though the potential pay-off is huge.

The gold market is at where it is at because that is where the Nash equilibrium for the market exists, plain and simple.
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Old 08-30-2013, 11:15   #67
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Soooo. If Gold moves to $50k an ounce and everyone who didn't buy gold is left behind but nothing in their life changes...who is going to pay you $50k/oz for your gold?
You obviously did not read the article. It plainly states who would buy it and why and how the new market would be created.
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Old 08-30-2013, 11:18   #68
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Game theory plays a big part in evaluating markets like this. The author proposes a scenario where the big gold players would supposedly have every motivation to buy and hold, but no motivation to sell. That is unless a dramatic revaluation of gold takes place in order to provide that motivation and thereby "unlock" the market. But that is an oversimplification of the decision making process. One must consider the global ramifications of $50k+ gold per ounce and what that would do to economies around the world. Even the biggest of players still has to live in this world and they aren't stupid. They know that a dramatic revaluation and upheavel would cause unpredictable and high risk scenarios that could come back around and have severe negative impacts on them directly. Therefore, it is better to hold pat then to take that risk even though the potential pay-off is huge.

The gold market is at where it is at because that is where the Nash equilibrium for the market exists, plain and simple.
So if game theory and the Nash equilibrium are so important and set in stone, why would FDR close the gold window for Americans and Nixon close the gold window for foreign holders of U.S. dollars?

This is no different than those actions, just in the opposite direction.

Of course there will be economic upsets, but to not do so would cause even more problems. Remember when liquidity froze in 2008 in financial markets? Well, that is just the tip of the iceberg when it come to gold liquidity freezing. This solves the biggest money problem of all, the flow of gold.
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Old 08-30-2013, 11:31   #69
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When in American history have we had so many years of accumulated IOU's circulated worldwide in your and my ("the average American household") name?
Never before today.
Seems like I have posted this before --

This information is not a secret - it is widely known.

You could just as easily say that the current price of gold already reflects all the money printing / debt created.

In other words why isn't this already all priced into the market?

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Old 08-30-2013, 11:44   #70
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...In other words why isn't this already all priced into the market?

A perfectly valid question...

And so too is "why is the gold market internationally not as transparent as the market for oil, for pork bellies, or for sunflowers?"
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Old 08-30-2013, 11:46   #71
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From the article:

"The first few moments after the BIS's proposal to buy gold at the very steep price of $55,000/oz, there would be roars of laughter. One fast thinker after another would think "Hey. I buy some gold from APMEX at $1,300/oz, sell it to the BIS for $55K. Net profit is $55,000-$1,300=$53,700. Easy money."

Everyone at once turns to the shrimp and paper gold markets to buy, markets which promptly shut down. Now no one is laughing. Because everyone realizes that gold is now worth $55,000 per ounce and no one is prepared for that revaluation. Whoever has gold now has 42.3 times the purchasing power in that stockpile. What appeared to be a stupid offer has now become a complete revaluation of all gold stockpiles worldwide vs all currencies worldwide."


It doesn't work that way. "Paper Gold" (ie. a gold futures certificate), is a legally binding document that obligates the seller to provide the listed amount of physical gold at the listed price. Should the seller forfeit, they will eventually be declared insolvent by the courts and their assets divided up to those whom they owe obligations to.

In the scenario discussed in the article, what would actually happen following a BIS declaration that gold is suddenly worth $55k/ounce would look something like this.

1) People already holding 'paper gold' long positions would immediately start cashing them in.
2) Since these "paper gold" positions represent legally binding obligations on the part of physical gold repositories or exchanges, those repositories would have to provide physical gold on demand to the futures holders at the listed futures price regardless of what BIS may have declared.
3) The resulting rush on physical gold would cause the obligated exchanges and repositories to quickly run out of physical gold reserves and go belly-up as they can no longer meet their legal obligations for payment.
4) The courts would dissolve those entities and distribute any remaining holdings they have to the folks to whom they were in debt (futures holders, creditors, etc.)
5) BIS would be left holding a worthless declaration stating that gold is worth $55k/ounce.

The article fails to understand that while "paper gold" prices may reflect current market assumptions, they are backed by legally binding obligations for delivery. Merely declaring a "new price" does not negate these legal obligations, nor does it allow the BIS or any exchange or repository to default on it's legal obligations to pay physical on demand to such futures "paper gold" holders.

And if they should try to default, a large number of uniformed, gun-toting police officers will come along in short order with a court-issued warrant to seize their property, including any physical gold reserves they may be hanging onto, for distribution to their debt-holders (ie. the 'paper gold' guys).

In short, paper trumps physical and the "paper gold" holders will get their pound of flesh regardless of what the BIS might declare, and they will get that flesh at the price listed on their futures certificate.
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Old 08-30-2013, 12:20   #72
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1) People already holding 'paper gold' long positions would immediately start cashing them in.
2) Since these "paper gold" positions represent legally binding obligations on the part of physical gold repositories or exchanges, those repositories would have to provide physical gold on demand to the futures holders at the listed futures price regardless of what BIS may have declared.
3) The resulting rush on physical gold would cause the obligated exchanges and repositories to quickly run out of physical gold reserves and go belly-up as they can no longer meet their legal obligations for payment.
4) The courts would dissolve those entities and distribute any remaining holdings they have to the folks to whom they were in debt (futures holders, creditors, etc.)
5) BIS would be left holding a worthless declaration stating that gold is worth $55k/ounce.
Exactly, they don't exist in a vaccum. They are well aware of how their decisions affect the decisions of others in the market and how that works out all the way down to the "end-game". So, while it might appear to the layman observer (goldbug) that they could simply revalue gold with impunity, the reality is that they can't without causing serious damage to their own organization (if not its outright demise). It's a losing move in the end, so they will not choose it.
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Old 08-30-2013, 12:24   #73
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And when will this be happening? A month from now? A year?

Put your money where your mouth is.
Putting my money where my mouth is means that I stack gold.

As to when? Well like FOFOA says, can you predict an earthquake? Nope. But we do know they come. And if big ones come every 70 years and it has been 90 years since the last one, we are due. Can't predict the exact date, but we are due.
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Old 08-30-2013, 12:28   #74
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In short, paper trumps physical and the "paper gold" holders will get their pound of flesh regardless of what the BIS might declare, and they will get that flesh at the price listed on their futures certificate.
Ha ha ha.

And I bet you know how to get blood from a stone!

Physical trumps paper all day long.

How did all that paper silver work for the Hunts? It didn't. The Hunts cornered the market with paper and were told to pound sand.

Sorry, but you do not know that of which you speak regarding paper gold and physical gold.
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Old 08-30-2013, 12:37   #75
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We should open a forum specifically for fantasies. That could be these gold threads, all the 9-11/Sandy Hook/Moon Landing stuff, those lusting for civil war, those lusting for WW3, ect. It would be entertaining.
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