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Old 07-11-2013, 23:12   #1
vulcan71
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Solving The Ammunition Shortage and Price Increase 2013

The only way to correct a shortage on a product or product class is for supply to meet demand but this will only correct the shortage not a price increase that will take time. The only way for prices to return to normal levels is for supply meeting demand over a period of time or for supply to be greater than demand. Everyone knows why there is a shortage and increased prices so the question is do you want to give your hard earned money to people selling over-priced ammunition?

The fastest way to correct the market is to allow the supply to meet demand by not purchasing ammunition for 30 days and for the next 2-4 months purchase only what you will use during this period and for people to pass this on for mass participation. Some will not be able to do this due to employment, competition or purchasing a new firearm but most of the consumers will be able to do this. There are other ways such as purchasing only what you need for your current needs, not purchasing at all until the market returns to normal or if you are sitting on a large supply put it back on the market.

I am writing this with the hope people will pass this on and participate, September 2013 would be an idea month to begin this as it will have enough time to get around to enough people to make an impact. Let us work together so we can enjoy our firearms and more money in our pockets.
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Last edited by vulcan71; 07-12-2013 at 15:04.. Reason: Deleted a statement not related to topic.
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Old 07-11-2013, 23:29   #2
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The diff is people need gas on a daily basis, the oil companies do gouge. Ammo is an option for pretty much everyone. If you carry a gun as a pro, your ammo is probably supplied. THis will not do much of anything for ammo prices. As soon as the month is over, the demand goes back up. If shooters don't like the situation, they should look to become more self reliant.
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Old 07-11-2013, 23:34   #3
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This will have the same effect as asking heroin addicts to "just say no".
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Old 07-12-2013, 00:08   #4
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Prices are coming down. Just give it time.
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Old 07-12-2013, 01:15   #5
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The problem is how much time...? The market will always find an equilibrium and adjust but the question is how long will it take. The gasoline reference was just that a reference that has no correlation to ammunition but is a similar idea (poorly conceived). As I stated the one month and 2-4 months of lowered purchases would be ideal for fastest recovery of supply and lowered prices for ammunition but there is more than one way to achieve this.

“If shooters don't like the situation, they should look to become more self reliant.” My response to this statement is this; that is what contributed to the shortage (hoarding or larger than normal inventory (purchases). This was not the only factor in the shortage.

I have enough ammunition and I can reload if need be but my friends do not and since they are my friends I will help them but I am not an ammo dealer. I also purchased a new pistol in a caliber I did not previously have so it took 2 months to find 250 rounds and I have yet to shoot the pistol.

The bottom line is why pay more for a product than you need to. Additionally, gasoline has nothing to do with ammunition and I do not want to bring the oil industry into this thread.
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Old 07-12-2013, 01:37   #6
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I haven't bought a box of ammo in well over a year and don't plan on purchasing any in the near future either. I won't pay gouging cuthroat prices. I practice dry firing and presentations almost daily however.

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Old 07-12-2013, 07:50   #7
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People have seen firearms quickly return to market and prices have fallen to close to the point before the panic but ammunition is different as you need a larger supply of it in order to use a firearm so it will take longer for supply and prices to recover. The question is why are people willing to over-pay for ammunition but fight for gun rights? Why not do both? In closing ask yourself who benefits from the lack of supply and increased prices to firearms that keep firearms and ammunition from the public
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Old 07-12-2013, 08:15   #8
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Go to the range about half as often as you might go and only buy what you shoot. If everyone did this, things would be pretty much back to normal by Fall. Then when the weather gets cold, people will frequent outdoor ranges less and things will really come back.
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Old 07-12-2013, 12:35   #9
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I only pick up boxes of .22lr as they come available at normal prices. All duty caliber self-defense and range ammo is gathering dust in a cool, dry secure place, and has been for at least the last ten months.
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Old 07-12-2013, 13:37   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vulcan71 View Post
The bottom line is why pay more for a product than you need to. Additionally, gasoline has nothing to do with ammunition and I do not want to bring the oil industry into this thread.
But you already brought the oil companies into the discussion. Ammo prices will stabilize when demand catches up, but it's going to take a lot longer than a month of not buying, manuf are about 6m behind right now by most observations. So maybe if no one bought ammo for 6m, but that isn't going to happen. Even then, ammo will be more expensive than before the shortage. You don't print $80B a month & not have it affect prices. Not unlike gas, there is no going back to the cheap good old days.
I expect things to stay about as they are thru the year. Then it will either get a little better next year or a lot worse as the 14 elections take place. Rep lose the house, liberals have free rein to enact any antigun crap they want, prices go up & shortages again. We win, things should start to settle down as Obama becomes a true lame duck & just plays golf for the next two years. It's gonna be bumpy so get what you can when you can, only you can decide what it is worth.
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Old 07-12-2013, 15:56   #11
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Fredj338, I did not state one month, I stated “The fastest way to correct the market is to allow the supply to meet demand by not purchasing ammunition for 30 days and for the next 2-4 months purchase only what you will use during this period and for people to pass this on for mass participation.” This would be for a total of 3 to 5 months with lower than normal consumption that would allow supply to get a “head start” to adjust to normal inventory and would be close to 6 months.

I also stated “There are other ways such as purchasing only what you need for your current needs, not purchasing at all until the market returns to normal or if you are sitting on a large supply put it back on the market.”

I agree with most of what you said and some of the items I stated you restated so we are in agreement. Bottom line it can be done laissez-faire with everyone fending for themselves or a tea-party grass roots movement to change things proactively.

What motivated me to write this; I am getting married (7 months) and one of the bachelor events will take place at my gun club and not all my guests can bring a firearm or ammunition (most of my family live in Sweden and California and my friends live in other states) so I have to provide firearms and the range will need to sell ammunition. My gun club has not been able to meet the needs of the membership for ammunition so on the up-side I get the range to myself today but the down-side is if a friend can’t find ammunition they are sitting on the sidelines. Another factor was how many people have asked how long the shortage will last when we should ask what can be done about it.
There is a possibility ammunition market will be corrected in 7 months but the ammunition price will not be the same as 2012 and there will most likely not be the same sales prices of November 2012, December 2012 and January 2013.
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Old 07-12-2013, 16:46   #12
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Originally Posted by vulcan71 View Post
...I am getting married (7 months) and one of the bachelor events will take place at my gun club and not all my guests can bring a firearm or ammunition...

1. Don't get married

2. use the money saved on wedding for ammo


Someday you'll thank me.
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Old 07-12-2013, 17:36   #13
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My LGS had 9mm PMC for $13.95 per box, and they had lots of it. I'd say things are looking up.
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Old 07-12-2013, 18:30   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiro Fijo View Post
1. Don't get married

2. use the money saved on wedding for ammo


Someday you'll thank me.
Problem solved.

Next question.
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Old 07-12-2013, 21:10   #15
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Our 10 year anniversary is a month before our wedding so we are more or less married. For my wedding gift she purchased a $1400.00 tactical pistol and gave it to me early because she wanted to make me happy and she knew I wanted it for some time. The only problem is she shoots too much ammo; one time I gave her 250 rounds to shoot and added 150 for myself and while I was working on my rifle on another range she shot all 400 rounds in 40-50 minutes. She is like a female Rambo with a pistol.

Today was a good day I walked into a nation chain gun store and found no 9x19 mm or 5.56 ammo in the store (I walked through the entire floor) so I decided to chat-up a salesman. While speaking with him and two customers he was trying to close I struck up a conversation with the 2 customers who shoot at my club but are not members while one purchased a rifle the other was on the fence so I helped the salesman close the deal. I asked him a few questions and on a whim I asked where the ammo I was looking for went as it arrived on Wednesday. The store policy states 2 boxes per customer I walked out with 12 boxes of 9x19 mm and 5.56 ammo that was no where to be found on the store floor at 2012 prices, I guess good things can happen. I may meet the 2 customers at the range this weekend and I will give them my member discount for range time.
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Old 07-12-2013, 23:36   #16
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Temporary boycotts during supply shortages result in a false sense of demand, further exacerbating the shortage. What you don't buy, someone else will. The demand won't change. If you can only buy 2 boxes but you don't because of the price, someone else will buy the 2 boxes you could have.

Study what happened in the industry 4 years ago. The only ones to blame when prices are raised is the consumers.
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Old 07-13-2013, 01:31   #17
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Freakshow10mm, as to your statement “Temporary boycotts during supply shortages result in a false sense of demand, further exacerbating the shortage.” Boycotts increase supply as people who would have consumed a product during a period of stable demand and supply will increase supply. If there is a supply problem by lowering demand will help increase supply putting pressure on price point thus lowering prices.

As to your statement “Study what happened in the industry 4 years ago. The only ones to blame when prices are raised are the consumers.” I agree consumers cause the supply problem and they are the solution. The past is only a guide as the past does not guarantee the future.

As to your statement “What you don't buy, someone else will. The demand won't change. If you can only buy 2 boxes but you don't because of the price, someone else will buy the 2 boxes you could have.” Yes the can happen and will happen but the question is when will that purchase take place. Demand, supply and time are key factors as well as many others. If the person who purchases the 2 boxes of ammunition chooses to purchase them later in the future supply has increased as the ammunition manufactures will produce to meet demand once supply reaches demand then manufacturing will slow down to meet supply.

Some retailers restrict the amount of ammunition a person can purchase and no one is asking why. The answer is it is affecting sales thus reducing profit for that business; businesses that do not restrict are not affected sales wise. In my previous post I stated I purchased 12 boxes of 9x19 mm and 5.56 ammunition; the 9x19mm purchase was 7 boxes for a friend I shoot with and the reason I made the purchase is because he could not come to the store to purchase it himself and the ammunition would be gone before he could go to the store as it is far from where we live.

The amount of his purchase will only maintain a reduced shooting schedule as our gun club has no 9x19 mm available for sale and our demand is thus lowered and has been for 2013. Before the shortage a group of us purchased in bulk so we purchased at discounted pricing but had to hold more ammunition then we needed but the supply supported this demand but in the current market this is no longer possible.
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Old 07-13-2013, 06:18   #18
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I only buy and replace what I use. I will not buy from over the top price gougers on the internet. A local gun shop in town sells blazer brass for $12.95 a box and I am good with that price. I am ok with .25 cents a round or so, but not a buck a round for ball ammo. It's a two box limit at a time but I just keep going in and picking up two when I get the chance. Some of these places are out of their minds what they are asking for training ammo. To me they can keep it at $50.00 a box and that's not just cheaper than dirt either.
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Old 07-13-2013, 07:17   #19
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You are going to have to think more long term than a couple of months. We are set up for a second major shortage this year when the Lib Tards start pushing their agenda again.
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Old 07-13-2013, 07:56   #20
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You can not control the free market without legislating it. If you think this is the way to do it, go ahead and start without me. :-)
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