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Old 07-06-2013, 11:00   #1
Kozel
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Do we have a missile defense system?

Do we have a missile defense system?

Most Americans probably think that we do yet it keeps failing tests.

http://www.latimes.com/business/mone...,4740544.story
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Old 07-06-2013, 11:02   #2
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Skunk can fix it.
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Old 07-06-2013, 11:31   #3
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We have active hit-to-kill tech with a pretty good track record. Not perfect.

Northrop Grumman is running a radio ad in the DC area about the re-fit of an Aegis cruiser named the Lake Erie, still on active duty. Destroyed an inbound satellite while still in outer space, 100-some miles up at 17,000 mph.

If it ain't perfect, perfect is within reach. Because of Korea we are placing launchers in the Pacific and AK. By the time they get something useable we'll be a lot farther along.

To be fair though, only one needs to get thru if its a nuke.
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Old 07-06-2013, 11:36   #4
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We've had and used a missile defense system for a few years. While effective at saving lives to some extent, it has the unintended consequence of preventing the country that uses it from doing what it should: going to the enemy's launch sites and killing the people who launch rockets and missiles there.
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Old 07-06-2013, 11:43   #5
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I was on a Russina defense industry site a couple of weeks ago. The Russians believe the hit-to-kill is an improbable task. A 50% success rate in not much to brag about, especially after spend $40 billion and deploying the to Alaska.

They expect that all of our interceptor missiles will eventually be refitted with lower medium-yield nuke warheads.
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Old 07-06-2013, 11:48   #6
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So the system they are talking about has been 100% successful in completely destroying incoming ballistic missile targets in 8 tests. In 8 other tests, they are still working on accuracy improvements.

Sounds different worded that way, doesn't it?

No "defense system", - zero, zip, nada - will be 100% effective. I'm just happy they are working on the system, as I remember decades ago during the MAD era people didn't want to spend any money on defending ourselves - which really confused me as a young kid.

I am hoping (and assuming) they are continuing work on space-based anti-missile systems, warhead interceptor missiles, and other defense systems.
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Old 07-06-2013, 15:27   #7
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Skunk can fix it.
I agree.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/sku...error_advisor/
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Old 07-07-2013, 16:13   #8
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Interesting. In “successful” tests target missiles had beacon attached? I sure hope them Russians, Chinese and North Koreans will not forget to install one on every one of their missiles.

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/200...issile-defense
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Old 07-07-2013, 17:33   #9
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From the article Kozel posted:

"Reportedly, the EKV successfully identified and ignored an accompanying decoy before homing in on the warhead to destroy it."

I didn't realize the test had been that successful - and that was 12 years ago.
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Old 07-07-2013, 18:03   #10
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Israel is dealing with the cost issue just like we are in Afghanistan. It takes a $1,000,000 missile to knock down a $2,000 Katusha. You might as well be launching Lexus SUV's at your targets.
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Old 07-07-2013, 20:27   #11
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We have a missile defense system to protect the government.

Everyone else in the USA....you're out of luck
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Old 07-07-2013, 20:48   #12
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Do we have a missile defense system?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BobPistol View Post
We have a missile defense system to protect the government.

Everyone else in the USA....you're out of luck
That's why they let us buy 10mms. So we are not left helpless.
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Old 07-07-2013, 20:50   #13
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That's why they let us buy 10mms. So we are not left helpless.
This.
We got 10mm and 45GAP.

Thread over.
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Old 07-08-2013, 17:12   #14
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Originally Posted by Tvov View Post
I didn't realize the test had been that successful - and that was 12 years ago.
You missed this part?

"The flight tests conducted so far have incorporated homing beacons, unrealistic decoys and other techniques designed to create the appearance of success."
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Old 07-08-2013, 20:28   #15
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You missed this part?

"The flight tests conducted so far have incorporated homing beacons, unrealistic decoys and other techniques designed to create the appearance of success."
Did you read the whole article? My quote came from this part about the successful test done without those "techniques" (as far as I can tell) to slant the test... but the article still says the test was bad because the radar was blocked afterwards by the debris of the destroyed missile:

"The latest integrated flight test of a missile interceptor took place July 14 and was immediately trumpeted by the Bush administration as an unqualified success. According to initial news accounts, the target, an intercontinental ballistic missile warhead launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, was intercepted high over the Pacific Ocean and destroyed on impact by an Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle launched from Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands.

Reportedly, the EKV successfully identified and ignored an accompanying decoy before homing in on the warhead to destroy it. The evening television broadcasts showed cheering test personnel watching the "kill" unfold on their monitors.

Now the truth about the test, the fourth successive failure to conduct a valid test of current missile-defense technology, is coming out.

Less than a week after the test, it was revealed that the Raytheon X-band radar, the brains of the national missile-defense system, had properly detected the target warhead and provided data before the interception, but that its data-analysis capability was overwhelmed by the cloud of debris caused by the collision of target and interceptor. The radar would thus have been incapable of tracking any additional targets or discriminating between them and any decoys, an essential task in any real attack scenario."

I don't know enough about ground-based missile defense to get into a detailed argument about it, but I think it is a viable part of missile defense, which includes mobile launchers, space based platforms and kill satellites, and whatever else.

Using only one defense, yes, missiles will get through. The more you layer the defense with various systems, the better the chance for successful defense.

Most people that are anti-ballistic missile defense can never be satisfied -- they want 100% perfection guaranteed all the time forever for almost no cost, which is impossible - for anything, at any cost.

Does ground based missile defense work? Well, it has had successful tests, along more unsuccessful tests. Should we drop it completely? I don't think so. Is it too expensive? I don't know the details about that, but being a government program it probably is - but I hope they don't stop working on it completely.
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Old 07-08-2013, 21:32   #16
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Originally Posted by Tvov View Post
Did you read the whole article? My quote came from this part about the successful test done without those "techniques" (as far as I can tell)
Which article are you reading? After official version of the test that you quoted next line is “Now the truth came out” so you quoted a lie.
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Old 07-09-2013, 05:14   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G29Reload View Post
We have active hit-to-kill tech with a pretty good track record. Not perfect.

Northrop Grumman is running a radio ad in the DC area about the re-fit of an Aegis cruiser named the Lake Erie, still on active duty. Destroyed an inbound satellite while still in outer space, 100-some miles up at 17,000 mph.

If it ain't perfect, perfect is within reach. Because of Korea we are placing launchers in the Pacific and AK. By the time they get something useable we'll be a lot farther along.

To be fair though, only one needs to get thru if its a nuke.
We've actually had them for quite sometime now, but we should probably top off the mags.
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Old 07-09-2013, 06:29   #18
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Which article are you reading? After official version of the test that you quoted next line is “Now the truth came out” so you quoted a lie.
Okay, well this is getting twisted! I quoted the article that you posted. I even re-posted the part relevant to what I quoted, with before and after sections. I am not sure what else I can do here. Again, did you actually read the article? The article that you posted states that the test WAS successful, but afterwards the radar was unable to distinguish any additional targets due to the debris field.

Enough for me, I'm out of this thread.

Have a nice day!
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Old 07-09-2013, 08:39   #19
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Okay, well this is getting twisted! I quoted the article that you posted.
You quote a line, which is clearly declared to be a lie by the line below it.

Whatever. People like you just want to believe lies so much you make yourself blind to everything else. You can believe in Unicorn, Leprechaun, Santa Claus, missile defense system….knock yourself out!
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Old 07-09-2013, 18:36   #20
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Speaking of ABM systems, What is the status of the Sprint/Spartan ABM system out west?
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Old 07-09-2013, 19:48   #21
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Originally Posted by vikingsoftpaw View Post
Speaking of ABM systems, What is the status of the Sprint/Spartan ABM system out west?

I do not think they're operational anymore.
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Old 07-09-2013, 20:47   #22
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Here's the answers that are likely:

Yes, we have one and it's kept very tightly under wraps. There could be any number of reasons for this, not the least of which is avoiding the fight over the ABM treaty, but also because of national freakin' security. You don't show your hands to the other side. Letting slip stories about failed tests helps cover the successes.

No, we don't.


Now, you can pick whichever one helps you sleep better at night. Anything more is just speculation.
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Old 07-09-2013, 22:17   #23
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I was on a Russina defense industry site a couple of weeks ago. The Russians believe the hit-to-kill is an improbable task. A 50% success rate in not much to brag about, especially after spend $40 billion and deploying the to Alaska.

They expect that all of our interceptor missiles will eventually be refitted with lower medium-yield nuke warheads.
I don't get it why they don't do that now. Someone suggested that they could knock out a nuke with another nuke but an EMP could do a ****load of damage.

And I don't get how the radioactive fallout would work at high altitude.

I guess that's better than a nuke actually hitting a city though.
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Old 07-09-2013, 23:01   #24
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Missile defense system? Rational actor theory and the ABM treaty say you don't need one of them things. So too does the dense-pack theory and the strategic triad.
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Old 07-10-2013, 03:32   #25
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Ya our Missile Defense System is called the MAD Reaction System consisting of Ohio Class Boomers.

Each one carries 24 Trident II Missiles with up to 12 MIRV warheads of 450KT each, so each Boomer carries up to 288 warheads and we field 7 at a time split between 4 in the Atlantic and 3 in the Pacific on general patrols. So we have up to 2,016 warheads with a range of 6,500 miles at sea all the time.

So far it has worked very well.
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