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Old 07-07-2013, 16:18   #21
pugman
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5 Reasons you (as in the people on this board) have a chance better than most.

Situational Awareness: You watch the news, you read blogs and you can even lump GT S&P into this. Estimates range but I've read as many as half of Americans under the age of 30 now get their "news" from social media sites. I was at the gym earlier today talking to a few regulars...none of the 5 even knew about the situation in Egypt which they first became aware of as they saw it on the news feed on one of the club's big tvs. However, 5 of 5 knew the Eagles were playing at Summerfest tonight and 4 of the 5 said they would "hit" Kim Kardashian.

Gun Ownership: You probably own a gun...probably more than one. The U.S population in 2012 was estimated at 314 million. Again, numbers vary but most estimates I've read state less than 1 in 3 own a gun now a days and less than 1 in 20 have ever had any sort of defensive training with it.

Food: No you might not have ten years worth of food stocked away. You may never have broken out the canning set you bought five years ago but I bet 9 in 10 people on this board have at least two weeks of food in the house. This alone will help you in most "real world" collaspes. Again, numbers vary but from what I read the average family of four has less than 3 days worth of food in the house. Eating out, the fact less and less families have family meals and poor eating in general all led to this.

S&P interest: My personal pet peeve. The fact you read this board means the prepardness bug is still in you. The author doesn't get the fact if people are reading his article on a board called The Survivalist Blog there is at least in interest. My niece's BD party was yesterday. My entire family was on me about the fact I carried there, I went to see World War Z, the fact after the party I was going to finish my workout at the gym, etc. My siblings have quietly told my nieces and nephews Uncle Pugman is "crazy." Again, they were oblivious to Egypt. My older brother (who makes a very comfortable six figure living) told my SIL they needed to stop on the way home to get toliet paper. How does a family run out of toliet paper? I know for a fact my brother's family has less than a week's worth of food in the house, no gun, no supplies, etc. They barely have bandaids in the house-how does a family with kids not have even a basic FAK? I'm willing to bet most on this board have basics-this alone puts you ahead of 75% of the U.S (and probably more).

Buddies: It would be extremely unlikely a single person will survive a collaspe. You probably have one friend who shares your prepardness bug; you may be part of a network. Your entire family might be "into it." The point being even though you might not be persistant or you aren't efficient in your resources; your friends and network might balance you out. There is strength in numbers
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Old 07-07-2013, 16:28   #22
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5 Reasons you (as in the people on this board) have a chance better than most. ...
If I knew of a way to attach a "LIKE" to this post, as can be done on other forums, I'd do so with this post.
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Old 07-07-2013, 19:20   #23
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All this doom, gloom and despair isn't really going to matter if something like shtf ever happens. In that moment you can sit there and give up or you can get-on and live in whatever way you can. Maybe it will be 6 months maybe It will be 6 years, who knows. It doesn't matter what happened to the "cowboys" or some tribe in the congo. The only thing that will matter is what options I have [right now] and what decisions I need to make. I can contribute to my list of options and learn to mitigate some of the threats that would endanger me -or- I can throw my hands up and do nothing if a crisis occurs.
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Old 07-07-2013, 19:24   #24
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I guess that I wasn't clear

I assumed that shtf meant a breakdown in society.

Farming. I do remember agriculture in the south some 60 years ago and I am the managing member of a family farm llc.

If shtf, there won't be wide scale farming - probably a reversion to subsistence farming if people have skills. Most don't. I can tell you that you don't want to go back to the dirt floor, bathroomless shacks that I saw growing up. In fact I remember in-door plumbing coming in the 1960s to relatives with whom I was staying. People sure get slowed down when bathing is standing in a large pan and pouring cold water over yourself!

There is probably underlying assumption that a person would get ahold of a mule, a plow, and seed. Ok. Try finding a mule, plow, various seeds in bulk or a horse drawn wagon in your area.

My great grandfather had a hernia develop during the civil war. There weren't surgeries in the 19th century - so he wore a truss for the rest of his life. Most farmers ended up disabled by torn rotator cuffs. I have personally had both shoulders done by modern medicine and a number of other surgeries. So, if shtf and you go to subsidence farming, I doubt that you will find modern medical care.

So for most, the reality is dragging a stick in the ground to plant seeds, trying to find water, doing without fertilizer, doing without a work animal.

In today's society, speak to an older person. They try to locate near doctors, medical centers. A lot of young people think that they will retire to the country when they retire - and then the reality hits them. Even modern farming (home farming) is tough. There are mighty few people who have a family garden that supplies them with all the fruit and vegetables.

Understand, if you want to believe that you already have the skills of a 19th Century American Indian or farmer and will survive in 2013 US after shtf, go right ahead. I have a lot of those skills and doubt that I would with the population density of today.
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Old 07-08-2013, 09:58   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdcochran View Post

So, for those who fantasize, here are google citations:

http://www.pbs.org/weta/thewest/prog...ve/cowboys.htm
"The cowboys' average age was 24. They were paid so badly, and worked so hard, that two-thirds of them made only one trail drive before finding something better to do. They owned their saddle, but not the horse they rode -- and they rode it day and night.

For a man to be stove up at thirty may sound strange to some people, but many a cowboy has been so bunged up that he has to quit riding that early in life... My advice to any young man or boy is to stay at home and not be a rambler, as it won't buy you anything.
James Emmit McCauley"

Life Expectancy
http://www.customessaymeister.com/cu...abor/16056.htm

"In 1850 the life expectancy of a white male living in the U.S was thirty-eight years old. A Cowboys prime time in his life was about twenty-four. Many cowboys lasted well into there thirties but due to the hard work and many activities the men were tired and were owed a rest. "

Ok, next the fantasy that you will live off the land. Most farmers were permanently disabled by age 40 by industrial accidents. So, when you fantasize about it, I will not allow you to have a rota-tor cuff fixed, a hip replacement, a hernia repaired, antibiotics, a knee replacement, eye surgery, a tetanus shot (the author of Walden Pond's brother died of lockjaw). After all, the farmers who lived off the land did not have those things.

Go ahead and look at photographs of settlers in the late 1800s. The kids didn't wear shoes. Many lived in sod houses. That was the reality!
"
http://www.netplaces.com/american-ci...casualties.htm
The casualty statistics are staggering. According to an analysis of government records, slightly more than 350,000 Union soldiers died from various causes during the Civil War. The majority of deaths were from disease. Nearly 25,000 men died from causes such as suicide, execution, sunstroke, and accidents. The Union navy lost nearly 5,000 men to illness, accidents, and battle injuries.

Records of Confederate deaths aren't nearly as comprehensive as those of Union casualties; military and government files were destroyed during and after the war. However, a generally accepted estimate is 150,000 dead of disease and 95,000 killed or mortally wounded in combat."

The reality is that when you go primitive, your chances of dying of disease and accidents is going to be very high. So, this has been a reality check for the members of the forum - only to be disregarded by the next guy who thinks he can become an isolate like a cowboy, American Indian or a farmer and survive in comfort while everyone else succumbs.

______

Very interesting
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Old 07-08-2013, 10:23   #26
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When society breaks down. Luck and fate will control everything. Wrong place wrong time. Right place right time. Golden bb.
Remember reading a survival fiction about a guy who had prepped to the max, and when TSHTF, he looked up and saw a nuke warhead coming down from the sky, right towards his encampment. End of Story. . .
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Old 07-08-2013, 10:57   #27
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Old 07-08-2013, 11:20   #28
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your tent will be the one with the Gadsden Flag?
The question is "who runs the fema camp"

Somebody gotta keep 'em in line
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Old 07-08-2013, 11:59   #29
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I can survive nicely without Farcebook, that puts me ahead of the curve.
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Old 07-08-2013, 12:44   #30
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Cowboy's, Farmers and Soldier's...comparing 1800's to today is pretty far fetched...anyone can stock a decent amount of medication for an emergency, medications that were not available in 1800's.....A garden can be done and maintained with hand tools....and Soldier's even in our modern times die of many things, battlefield injuries, suicide, vehicle accidents and so on.....the technology has changed, but the deaths occur anyway....population compared now to 1800's is far different and percentage is probably not far off in a population comparison. Surviving takes many things....the un-prepared will suffer more injuries, sickness and death compared to those who do prepare....having the brain power to access risk and gains will keep the thinkers alive and the idiots dying....those who think it can never happen to them need to be aware that no one in New Orleans thought it would happen either, having a 30 day supply of food and water especially if you have a family is the only smart thing to do.....
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Old 07-08-2013, 16:06   #31
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OK, i read the link.

So..is he just trying to motivate people? Seems to me he has a pretty piss poor attitude/opinion of his ilk if he is being honest. Sure he points out some very common weaknesses that EVERYONE could see, yet offers no insight.
I'd expect something like THIS:

"OK- but you are one of MY readers, and you are not going out like that. Get a yellow note pad and a pen, and write down your four greatest weaknesess, come up with a 1 year plan to minimize them"

Fitness- Something physical EVERY day. STOP going to the gym to create show muscle- use your own body to build it. Cardio. Use skills training as cardio ( boxing). Incorperate sprints into firearms work. stop eating crap. Jesus-you are not a smoker, are you?

Food- Take and inventory of all food products that your family eats for the next 2 weeks, and include hygiene supplies. Make a good list, ELIMINATE crap foods, and DUPLICATE these two weeks intervals. Learn to garden, NOW.

WATER: locate a local supply, and find and buy the largest containers for potable H2) you can. Fill them. Invest in at least one Katydyne portable filter, and consider a larger non portable type as well. Scout, douse, or otherwise locate an additional source of water, and develop it. Say you have a small stream/trickle of water, clean and expand it into a catch pool lines with stone, with easy access, perhaps with gravity piping water closer to the house in the summer months.

Build and outhouse, and discontinue use of the toilet in your house.

Practice with firearms, dryfire, at least weekly.

if you are not in a location that allows all this MOVE. Don't tell me why you CANNOT- IF you TRULY think SWHTF, and you think you can survive, DO IT. "


Something along these lines would be more useful than telling everyone who is active in the community that they are dead, regardless of what they do. This just makes me think he is inclined to present himself as the solution guy.
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Old 07-08-2013, 16:35   #32
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stalingrad,bataan,etc

people have survived worse.... if all you did was store three years supply of white rice and three years supply of Crisco...you and your family would not starve...and if you stocked a supply of multi vitamins and had a good field book with color photos of edible plants in your AO and perhaps supplemented your subsistence rations with doping/trapping/snaring/pellet gun/slingshot. etc, you would do a bit better... everything after that is an improvement...including a garden, fruit trees, etc... there are free online lists of non perishable foods that easily last ten years or more, then there's canned goods, rotate....

Don't go gentle into that good night..patriots!
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Old 07-09-2013, 08:52   #33
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In order for those 6 things to be true one has to believe that there is actually going to be a "collapse" of society. One has to believe that for whatever reason, we revert back to the 19th century and everything built up to this point simply goes away; that manufacturing tops, that people no longer produce food, that transportation and distribution systems disappear. At worst we will live at a lower standard of living when the powers that be create the socialist utopia they are striving for.

I've been listening to that collapse of society/end of the world crap for 45 years and it ain't gonna happen.

Prepare for what is likely to happen, i.e, natural and man made disasters which are local or regional in scope. That is what is going to kill you, not some zombie, mutant biker hoard from outer space who rode to earth on a asteroid which crashed into the Yellowstone caldera.
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Old 07-09-2013, 10:52   #34
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If I knew of a way to attach a "LIKE" to this post, as can be done on other forums, I'd do so with this post.
100% agree with the post, and wishing that we had a "Like" button available!
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Old 07-09-2013, 10:54   #35
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In order for those 6 things to be true one has to believe that there is actually going to be a "collapse" of society. One has to believe that for whatever reason, we revert back to the 19th century and everything built up to this point simply goes away; that manufacturing tops, that people no longer produce food, that transportation and distribution systems disappear. At worst we will live at a lower standard of living when the powers that be create the socialist utopia they are striving for.

I've been listening to that collapse of society/end of the world crap for 45 years and it ain't gonna happen.

Prepare for what is likely to happen, i.e, natural and man made disasters which are local or regional in scope. That is what is going to kill you, not some zombie, mutant biker hoard from outer space who rode to earth on a asteroid which crashed into the Yellowstone caldera.
BUT.. if you ready for that.. the county water treatment plant going down is no big deal...
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Old 07-09-2013, 10:55   #36
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All this doom, gloom and despair isn't really going to matter if something like shtf ever happens. In that moment you can sit there and give up or you can get-on and live in whatever way you can. Maybe it will be 6 months maybe It will be 6 years, who knows. It doesn't matter what happened to the "cowboys" or some tribe in the congo. The only thing that will matter is what options I have [right now] and what decisions I need to make.
Yep! I have two kids (9 & 13) so you can bet I'll do whatever I can to help them survive, even if I don't. What other options are there?
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:07   #37
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people have survived worse.... if all you did was store three years supply of white rice and three years supply of Crisco...you and your family would not starve...and if you stocked a supply of multi vitamins and had a good field book with color photos of edible plants in your AO and perhaps supplemented your subsistence rations with doping/trapping/snaring/pellet gun/slingshot. etc, you would do a bit better... everything after that is an improvement...including a garden, fruit trees, etc... there are free online lists of non perishable foods that easily last ten years or more, then there's canned goods, rotate....

Don't go gentle into that good night..patriots!

Great post. I am a firm believer that the currency is going to inflate but I don't think that anything will happen that we can't live through... it's just about how well we each will live through it.
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Old 07-09-2013, 14:06   #38
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...believe that for whatever reason, we revert back to the 19th century and everything built up to this point simply goes away; that manufacturing tops, that people no longer produce food, that transportation and distribution systems disappear. At worst we will live at a lower standard of living when the powers that be create the socialist utopia they are striving for.

I've been listening to that collapse of society/end of the world crap for 45 years and it ain't gonna happen.

Prepare for what is likely to happen, i.e, natural and man made disasters which are local or regional in scope. That is what is going to kill you, not some zombie, mutant biker hoard from outer space who rode to earth on a asteroid which crashed into the Yellowstone caldera.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFCSMITH(RET) View Post
BUT.. if you ready for that.. the county water treatment plant going down is no big deal...
+1 to both of those, with the caveat that long-term (Argentina-esque, WW2-esque) situations play in my mind, and so because of that I do tend to 'want' more long-term non-dependent capability than a lot of people do.

After seeing a decade of privation in Argentina, listening to my father's stories of ww2 europe, seeing our national economic landscape go the direction it has, and seeing the economic issues of numerous other countries lately, I definitely want MUCH more than the 72-hours to 90-days often espoused. Do I think it's a given that someone will EMP us back to wild west days, or that we'll experience a continent-wide (or planet-wide) CME that will throw us into a feudal or commune-like society with no manufacturing or long-range communication? No, I don't think they're probable, I do have to admit they're not completely impossible.

And I confess that the cheapskate part of my brain does fantasize about "wouldn't it be nice to now be eating groceries that were bought at 1985 prices" and "wouldn't it be nice to be shooting .22 shells bought at 1985 prices", etc. Fact is, the 7.62x39 we're shooting now was bought at 1992 prices; $88 for 1280 rounds, iirc. Did any of us think that bulk packs of .22 shells from walmart that were $8.96 five years ago, would now be seen this year for $50-$100 at gun shows? I certainly didn't.

Makes me wonder (assuming I'm still alive) how good it might feel in 20 years to be shooting bulk ammo bought "at 2008 prices". And if I'm not alive, frankly makes me feel even better to think that my boys and their kids might be able to.

Sorry for the ramble - just my babbling way of saying that even though someone doesn't necessarily expect a throwback to stone-age or frontier times, a superficial glance at their approach to preps might lead to false assumptions about what they do expect.
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Old 07-09-2013, 15:58   #39
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All reasons mentioned there are secondary to, "Because your a fat, lazy lardass who couldn't do 10 pullups in a row to save his life." If that applies to you, THAT is why you wouldn't survive the coming collapse.

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Old 07-09-2013, 16:28   #40
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