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Old 03-15-2013, 18:17   #1
PghJim
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Exactly How Many Rounds is 1.6 Billion?

With all of the big numbers concerning the debt, I think we sometimes do not realize how big numbers can be. First, I do not know what Homeland Security needs with 1.6 billion rounds of premium hollow point in combined 9mm and 40 S&W. If they were using it for practice, as they say, why would they not buy the cheaper practice rounds.

Here is my point. In 2000 Winchester won a contract with the Secret Service of 1.3 million rounds of 357 sig and that was thought to be news worthy. 1.6 Billion rounds would equal 3,200,000 cases of 500 rounds each, or 32,000,000 50 round boxes. I do not know what the production capacity is to make ammo from ATK, Winchester or Remington, but it seems to me that 1.6 billion would be a hell of a lot of production. Is this contributing to ammo shortage?

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Old 03-15-2013, 19:37   #2
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"Is this contributing to the ammo shortage?"

Of course it is. Why else do you think Obama placed that order?
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Old 03-15-2013, 20:12   #3
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Well I guess 1.6B rounds of ammo takes up less space than 2700 MRAP trucks. Something is in the wind and I do not like it.
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Old 03-15-2013, 22:56   #4
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There are a dozen or so threads in the GNC Forum dealing with the tin foil hatters and their whacko theories on this,

Search Function is your friend.
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Old 03-16-2013, 00:39   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiro Fijo View Post
There are a dozen or so threads in the GNC Forum dealing with the tin foil hatters and their whacko theories on this,

Search Function is your friend.
Thanks for the lesson, what makes you think I did not search the issue. Are you now putting me in the tin foil hatters, because I did not put forth a theory? I just wanted to share my take on 1.6B and how much that really is.

You kind of surprised me, I thought you were a cool guy.

These people may be tin foil, but I think it needs a discussion:

http://townhall.com/columnists/diana...llets-n1534513

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Old 03-16-2013, 00:47   #6
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Just out of curiosity has anyone actually seen documented proof of the 1.6 billion rounds. I am not putting anyone down and it very well might be true. I have done a few searches in the google machine and its mostly blog posts.

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Old 03-16-2013, 00:52   #7
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It's not really that much ammo when you think about it. Since 1/2012, more than 500, 000 new gun owners have come on line. There are an estimated 60-70M gun owners. If everyone buys 100rds a month on avg, you go thru 1.6B rounds pretty fast.
DO I think the govt is doing this on purpose, maybe, govt have done lots of so called crazy things to get & hold power. PBO really likes his power as do all the Liberals running things now. SO sure, maybe, why not?
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Old 03-16-2013, 00:56   #8
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Someone estimated the ammo purchased by HS recently would wage a 24 year all out domestic war. 24 years!
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Old 03-16-2013, 00:58   #9
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Originally Posted by Jakestir View Post
Just out of curiosity has anyone actually seen documented proof of the 1.6 billion rounds. I am not putting anyone down and it very well might be true. I have done a few searches in the google machine and its mostly blog posts.

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How is Forbes Magazine for a credible source?


http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphben...-conversation/
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Old 03-16-2013, 00:59   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fredj338 View Post
It's not really that much ammo when you think about it. Since 1/2012, more than 500, 000 new gun owners have come on line. There are an estimated 60-70M gun owners. If everyone buys 100rds a month on avg, you go thru 1.6B rounds pretty fast.
DO I think the govt is doing this on purpose, maybe, govt have done lots of so called crazy things to get & hold power. PBO really likes his power as do all the Liberals running things now. SO sure, maybe, why not?
Fred - The agency has a few thousand employees not the 70M of the general population, so it would represent a lot. Enough to shoot every American 5 times. I am not guessing, but I would like to find some media people that will ask hard questions and not eaccept the standard line. See my link above.
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Old 03-16-2013, 01:59   #11
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About 5 rounds for everyone living in the US today. Someone said it was enough to wage open war for ten years. Bull.

Compair that to 2,900 rounds for everyone living in the US and you have the estimated ammo used in WWII which lasted about 5 years.
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Old 03-16-2013, 03:13   #12
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It's certainly curious, but if they're buyin' all the 9MM and .40,
that doesn't account for the shortage in all other calibers.
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Old 03-16-2013, 05:49   #13
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To paraphrase J. Paul Getty..."If you can count your bullets, you don't have a billion of them."
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Old 03-16-2013, 06:10   #14
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It's certainly curious, but if they're buyin' all the 9MM and .40,
that doesn't account for the shortage in all other calibers.
It may if you consider companies transitioning from other calibers to ramp up 9/40 production.
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Old 03-16-2013, 06:16   #15
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I love math issues like this:

9mm overall length is 1.16 inches

1.16 times 1,600,000,000 equals

1,856,000,000 inches / divided by 12 equals

154,666,666.67 feet / divided by 5,280 feet in a mile equals

29,292.93 miles if laid end to end.

That's greater than the Earth's circumference.

That's a lot of ammo.


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Old 03-16-2013, 07:17   #16
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What is contributing to the ammunition shortage is simple.

Us. You, me and every other gunowner in this country.

Yes, government agencies buy hundreds of millions of rounds of ammunition.

However, they don't buy it from places like Luckygunner, sgammo, ******** or ammoman.

The last time one of these places got 7.62 in stock (maybe 600-700 cases if I recall) it was gone within an hour. This ammunition also had a 100% increase in price from the last time I bought it.

Shooters like me who normally buy at least 1,000 rounds a month of whatever are literally sitting on cash waiting for something...anything..to become available.

Ammunition sellers know this.

When this happened in 2008 the "shortage" lasted 3-6 months. A friend manages a local Walmart. During this "shortage" period they were lucky to get 6 cases of all types of ammunition a week.

then suddenly like magic...they were getting 6 pallets a week...along with a 30% increase in price across the board.

If I owned Winchester, Remington or federal you know damn well I have my bean counters estimating the cost/benefit ratio of spitting out a few hundred pallets here or there every week or sitting on it for a few months then shipping thousands or tens of thousands with a permanent price increase.
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Old 03-16-2013, 08:41   #17
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How is Forbes Magazine for a credible source?


http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphben...-conversation/
On some things yes. But this is an oped piece, it's opinion, not necessarily fact. He says his source is an AP story that ran in one Denver newspaper. So then how credible is the AP? Not very IMHO.

Did DHS let a contract for ammo? Probably. The question, is over how many years? 1.6B rounds tomorrow is different from the same amount over 20 years. Will it impact consumers? Only those who use .40. Doesn't explain the shortage in 22lr, 9mm, 10mm or 45acp. DHS didn't include that in the contract. Time to go get 45GAP!

Fred's probably closer to the truth, panic buying and new shooters caused the shortage. DHS certainly didn't help the situation IF the are taking deliveryASAP.
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Old 03-16-2013, 11:28   #18
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Thing that gets me is around here they are not even limiting people. They fill a freakin cart and walk out...whats up with that..

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Old 03-16-2013, 11:43   #19
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Thanks for the lesson, what makes you think I did not search the issue. Are you now putting me in the tin foil hatters, because I did not put forth a theory? I just wanted to share my take on 1.6B and how much that really is.

You kind of surprised me, I thought you were a cool guy.

These people may be tin foil, but I think it needs a discussion:

http://townhall.com/columnists/diana...llets-n1534513

A. It's a contract to potentially buy that quantity

B. the Feds shoot a lot of ammo

C. do you really think the Fed. Gov't, the same people who brought you the morons in the TSA, could orchestrate some grand plan (as well as implement it) to subjugate the American populace when we can't even placate small Third World countries with the entire Military in a decade? Think about it for a moment.
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Old 03-16-2013, 12:34   #20
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I started selling guns in September 2011. Since then I have seen alot of stock come and go. I have also learned alot about the gun industry. I have seen everything sell out recently. Demand went up when Barry got his 2nd term and things were selling out right after that happened. Then he announced his gun control crap and Feinstein crawled out from under her rock. All that did was dry up the last of what was out there. The manufacturers did not see that double punch coming and even if they did, they were already struggling to keep up.

I have accounts with 5 of the biggest distributors who supply everyone from the average Joe's like me to big box stores like Cabelas and Bass Pro.

The stock IS there. Yes, even ammo. The problem is the run on everything is out weighing what was already a very slim margin of supply. Yes the government is buying alot of ammo but the people are buying much more and dealers like me are buying it up and selling it because the demand is there. Until the demand slows up it will stay this way.

High cap mags and guns are still hard to come by but they are becoming more frequent in the distributors online catalogs. If you watch, you can catch them. I watch their sites most of the day (tapping F5 to refresh every 2-3 seconds) and when something comes up you have about 2 seconds to commit to buy it and that is by no means an exaggeration.

Demand IS scaling back right now, albeit very little. More and more hot items are coming available and lasting longer before they are all bought up. This has been going for so long that people are either getting what they need and are happy with it to the point where they either don't feel the need to "bum rush the open market" or they are waiting to see what happens next.

Another thing worth noting is that our costs (dealers and FFL's) has gone up but nowhere near what you guys see on the open market. The demand exceeded the supply and certain companies whose names I will not mention here (CHEAPER THAN DIRT) chose to jack their prices up to ridiculous amounts, and as you are probably aware, they pay a heavy price for it.

Dealers like me see a niche market here. I can raise my prices slightly to offset the slight increase that was passed on to me or I can just sell at the MSRP. Either way, my stock sells fast because I am not gouging. So, my bottom line increases and I can fund my hobby like crazy.

Since all of this started in November 2012 I have sold over 150 guns. That does not seem like alot until you figure from September 2011 to November 2012 I sold only 18 various handguns and rifles and 5 of those were to my family and friends.

This rush has done wonders for my business in more ways than one. It has also broken many half-hearted businesses and made some people rich. Less competition means more business for me. People like me just kinda ride the wave and sell what they can to fund their own addiction to shooting; which is why I got my FFL in the first place.

When I stared in September 2011 I had 3 guns (Glock 19,23, Winchester 1300 Defender) and I bought all my ammo from Wally World. For the first year all I gained was my Glock 21SF and my Colt LE6920 which I sold my 19 and 23 to get.

Since this rush started in November 2012 I have added:

Beretta M9
Glock 26 Gen 3
Glock 26 Gen 4
Glock 17
S&W 686 Plus
FN FNS-40
Remington R1 1911
Para P14
S&W M&P 22
S&W M&P 15-22
Mossberg 500 8-shot pistol grip
Mossberg 500 Combo w 18.5"/pistol grip
Double barrel 20 ga.

AND I bought a Dillon XL 650 full setup with all the bells and whistles for 5 calibers along with all the needed stuff to get into reloading, including bullets, primers, powders, and brass.

The point here is to demonstrate that their IS stock to be had, but the demand is so high right now that you can't see it. It does not mean the government is not up to something, just that its not just them causing the shortage.

Also worth noting is that since January I have sold 23 guns to people who were "buying their first gun", and that alone makes me proud.
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