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Old 01-17-2013, 05:50   #121
Cavalry Doc
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Syclone538 View Post
I can't be understanding you correctly here.

If the odds that cellular life would spontaneously occur are less then the odds of you winning the lottery next week, then the odds that it did not occur are the same as the odds that you will not win the lottery next week.

Is this what you mean to say?
Missed this, sorry.


Not exactly. A loose analogy about low percentages was all I was implying. I've bought one lottery ticket in the last several years, odds are almost certain I won't be buying one next week.

The possibility of the elements and pieces coming together to create a viable cell is remote enough, one capable of reproduction with internally distant dependent structures would be very rare. Then you add in other organisms, predatory and symbiotic relationships, adaptation, evolution, and in the end I think it's possible both ways. Just happened, or designed. And I just simply don't know which it is.

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Old 01-17-2013, 07:15   #122
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Originally Posted by Cavalry Doc View Post
....
The odds that cellular life would spontaneously occur, has to be less than the probability that I will win the lottery next week, If I bothered to buy a ticket.

....
Not if there are trillions of tries every second for a few billion years!

Quote:
Stem cell: Not banned. Federal funding was withheld for a few years, not for the last several.

Gay Marriage: Has not existed before, is a relatively new concept, likely a hail mary (pun intended) that would be best accomplished by going for "Civil Unions" with all the benefits now, then add "marriage" in 10 years when no one gives a crap.

Abortion on demand is the law of the land. Morning after pills are freely available.
The facts are simple. Stem cell research was banned and the only reason for that was religious.

Gay marriage, about which I care little either way, is resisted only because of religion.

Abortion, which has been legal in the USA for a few decades was illegal before that on religious grounds. A substantial minority now skews election results because of this single issue, again on religious grounds. A proportion of them consider it important enough to justify interfering with the independent decisions of pregnant women, murder of doctors performing abortions and bombing abortion clinics. How many abortion clinics remain functioning as a result?

It is virtually impossible to be elected to significant office without professing a strong religion.

There is no way to pretend that religious principles are not imposed on the people as a whole by the religious. This is greatly to the detriment of good government and the majority of the people.

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Old 01-17-2013, 07:47   #123
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When was stem cell research banned? It's always been legal at the federal level. It's an often repeated misconception though.

If life were so easy to happen, it would be found everywhere we look. It would be different and adapted to its own environment, but it should be everywhere if it was simply inevitable. The odds are still such that either spontaneous generation or intelligent design could be responsible. Ultimately, that's a question that remains unanswered.

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Old 01-17-2013, 08:09   #124
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Originally Posted by Gunhaver View Post
Maybe a math impediment is the reason for Cav PA never getting that MD.

I wonder if he understands what data is required to accurately make calculations on odds.


.....
Beliefs have a variety of bases. If it is a belief about God's existence there can be no data and therefore no calculation about probability. Probabilities are then used as a measure of the individual's opinion and do not fall into the same category as, for instance, the increased risk of early death as a result of smoking 20 cigarettes a day, where probability theory can be applied.

This is a very interesting tread but much of it is spoiled by unnecessary backbiting and a failure to use words like belief, knowledge, fact, theory, idea and so on clearly.

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Old 01-17-2013, 08:10   #125
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What are the odds?

http://www.space.com/19157-billions-...ts-aas221.html
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:25   #126
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Originally Posted by Cavalry Doc View Post
Missed this, sorry.


Not exactly. A loose analogy about low percentages was all I was implying. I've bought one lottery ticket in the last several years, odds are almost certain I won't be buying one next week.

The possibility of the elements and pieces coming together to create a viable cell is remote enough, one capable of reproduction with internally distant dependent structures would be very rare. Then you add in other organisms, predatory and symbiotic relationships, adaptation, evolution, and in the end I think it's possible both ways. Just happened, or designed. And I just simply don't know which it is.
The lottery analogy made it look to me like you were saying that there was a 99.9999% chance life did not occur on it's own vs a .0001% chance it did.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:32   #127
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Originally Posted by Cavalry Doc View Post
When was stem cell research banned? It's always been legal at the federal level. It's an often repeated misconception though.

If life were so easy to happen, it would be found everywhere we look. It would be different and adapted to its own environment, but it should be everywhere if it was simply inevitable. The odds are still such that either spontaneous generation or intelligent design could be responsible. Ultimately, that's a question that remains unanswered.
Stem cell research was not made illegal but it was denied government funding though such funding was available for far less promising research.

I don't know what you mean by everywhere we look! Life can exist in a wide range of environments but those environments are still limited relative to the totality of the universe. Do you mean that we would see it throughout the universe or across the world. If the latter, we see it as stains on arctic ice that survived the "snowball earth" era. We see it in subterranean thermal springs at temperatures we would once have thought made life impossible. We see it round ocean vents. We see it n deserts where we might naively think the environment would support no life.

In terms of the development of life, once it occurs it is able to gobble up most the food in its environment. It then evolves rapidly to gain a competitive advantage over other organisms in the competition for food. Within a short time, relative to the frequency with which life is created spontaneously, the adaptation of existing life forms becomes so good that any spontaneous new life is likely to be eaten by established life forms before it can spread. This fits entirely with the biological evidence.

The biological evidence gives innumerable examples of adaptation which support evolution and none which deny it. In contrast, the biological evidence provides numerous examples which deny creationism unless the creator is incredibly incompetent. If you are to believe that there is an approximate parity between the likelihood of a god or no god, then that god has to be quite ungodlike. No god that could make such a botch of biological design would have the power to be omnipotent or even to have the ability to listen to the prayers of billions.

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Old 01-17-2013, 08:32   #128
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Originally Posted by Cavalry Doc View Post
When was stem cell research banned? It's always been legal at the federal level. It's an often repeated misconception though.
...
It think there might be confusion on banned, and banned federal funding. There clearly are some statist authoritarians here that want fed gov to pay for stuff that's not in the Constitution.

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Originally Posted by Cavalry Doc View Post
...
If life were so easy to happen, it would be found everywhere we look. It would be different and adapted to its own environment, but it should be everywhere if it was simply inevitable. The odds are still such that either spontaneous generation or intelligent design could be responsible. Ultimately, that's a question that remains unanswered.
The universe is big and old. Something that is unlikely at a given place and time can happen somewhere eventually.
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The constitution is not, nor was it meant to be absolutely literal.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:44   #129
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In the last 6 months? Same number as theist. Zero. There was a guy about a year ago that PM'd saying he hoped that I would find god. He was polite about it. As best as I can recall at this moment, that's been it for a couple if years...
Nope, not in the last 6 months. Ever. How many people have EVER proselytized to you about unicorns, that you can recall?

How about folks that wanted to pass legislation based in the majority on the teachings of their unicorn gods?

It was an apples to oranges comparison from the get go, other than the lack of physical proof for both.

Make no mistake, I'm all for people having whatever faith pleases them, so long as they don't impose it on me. I will happily return that favor. If you ask me, I'll point out why I think belief in gods is silly, but I won't begrudge anyone their faith or try to "convert" them. Can the world's religions say the same thing?
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:45   #130
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Although mildly annoying, I don't have a problem with any of the above. As long as (in the last case) they don't return to my home when politely asked not to. That is all constitutionally protected free speech. They should be allowed to be publicly foolish if they want to be, they just shouldn't be allowed to enact foolish (sometimes dangerous and unjust) laws based on their religion.
Bingo!
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:47   #131
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The lottery analogy made it look to me like you were saying that there was a 99.9999% chance life did not occur on it's own vs a .0001% chance it did.
Yeah, that was his point and now he's just redirecting again because he got asked to expound. Go back and look at his comment and tell me it wasn't just another Hoyle's fallacy.

He's a PA and doesn't even understand enough about biology to know that evolution isn't a random chance sort of thing. It's basically a mathematical certainty.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:52   #132
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...Gay Marriage: Has not existed before, is a relatively new concept, likely a hail mary (pun intended) that would be best accomplished by going for "Civil Unions" with all the benefits now, then add "marriage" in 10 years when no one gives a crap...
Nope, not a new concept at all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_same-sex_unions

Unless you were speaking specifically to legal "marriage" in the US, then it is rather new.

With respect to Civil Unions, separate but equal isn't equal.

Where do the religious get the idea that they own the word marriage and get to dictate its definition?

Oh, and Appeal to Tradition is an obvious logical fallacy.

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Old 01-17-2013, 08:56   #133
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Didn't you say you clear about $61,000 a year? Trust me when I say math is not my problem.

Non Sequitur arguments are falling rather flat for me lately...

Pot, meet kettle. C'mon, Doc, you're better than the first bit above.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:03   #134
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Unless you were speaking specifically to legal "marriage" in the US, then it is rather new.

With respect to Civil Unions, separate but equal isn't equal.
Strange position for a self-described agnostic to take, is it not?
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:18   #135
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Bingo!
Doc claims he hasn't been proselytized to by a theist in at least two years. I find that doubtful as we both live and work in the same area of the country. I personally experience organized calls to prayer during work hours at official functions in one of the larger school districts in Texas at least several times a year. I don't complain, I just remain silent while they finish, but this is a huge red flag of legal liability that shocks me every time it occurs. To me, this is evidence that theists (specifically evangelical christians) will break the rules regarding separation of church and state in any and every instance where they think they can get away with it.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:30   #136
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Originally Posted by Cavalry Doc View Post
The odds that cellular life would spontaneously occur, has to be less than the probability that I will win the lottery next week, If I bothered to buy a ticket.
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Originally Posted by Gunhaver View Post
Good find. 17 billion earth sized planets in the Milky Way alone. Combine that with the 80-100 billion other galaxies that are within the observable universe (probably many more beyond the luminal horizon) and life arising somewhere becomes a statistical certainty. Those that throw out weak analogies to lotteries and junkyard tornadoes are simply unable or unwilling to grasp the vast size and age of the universe.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:38   #137
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Strange position for a self-described agnostic to take, is it not?
On its face, it would certainly seem to be. Perhaps I'm missing something, though.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:40   #138
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Good find. 17 billion earth sized planets in the Milky Way alone. Combine that with the 80-100 billion other galaxies that are within the observable universe (probably many more beyond the luminal horizon) and life arising somewhere becomes a statistical certainty. Those that throw out weak analogies to lotteries and junkyard tornadoes are simply unable or unwilling to grasp the vast size and age of the universe.

Yep. The "watchmaker" argument has been debunked over and over and over. For some reason, people still try to use it, though.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:47   #139
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Nope, not in the last 6 months. Ever. How many people have EVER proselytized to you about unicorns, that you can recall?

How about folks that wanted to pass legislation based in the majority on the teachings of their unicorn gods?

It was an apples to oranges comparison from the get go, other than the lack of physical proof for both.

Make no mistake, I'm all for people having whatever faith pleases them, so long as they don't impose it on me. I will happily return that favor. If you ask me, I'll point out why I think belief in gods is silly, but I won't begrudge anyone their faith or try to "convert" them. Can the world's religions say the same thing?

Maybe it's a location thing, but best I can tell, is the only blue law still on the books in Texas, is you can't buy alcohol before noon on Sunday. That's been an inconvenience twice in 20 years.

I just don't feel a lot of pressure IRL. GTRI? Well a lot of people actually demand that you must have the same opinion as them or you are a [insert ad hom here]. A lot of them are demanding to be left alone by theists at the same time, it's interesting to watch.

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Old 01-17-2013, 09:54   #140
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Looking back, I should have mentioned that accosted was not the right word, but other then that I was trying.

"It is very rare that they are pushy. Pressured is not the word I would use. "

"I'm not at all claiming to be an oppressed victim. "

"Yeah I absolutely believe all of them were trying to help. "




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OK. I assumed that theists proselytizing to you would be offensive. It wasn't intentional. I should have asked though. My bad. I should have gone about asking that question in a much different way.


In the experiences you described, how did that affect your feelings toward them?
I'm not trying to give you a hard time here, but, why did you assume it would be offensive?

I try very hard not to be offended, and think everyone else should too. Generally if someone is being honest, they would have a very hard time offending me.

Anyway, I think some atheists get offended when a theists tell them they are going to hell or that they can't be moral without religion. I don't get offended by this, but understand being offended by it. This has never happened to me though, except at church where it wasn't directed at me because everyone there assumed I was Christian too.
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