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Old 01-05-2013, 15:50   #1
PPinesRon
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Unemployment Data

Just didn't hit me before, but I was looking at the monthly new jobs numbers, then the new claims numbers for the week. A number that seems minimally ok with the talking heads for new jobs in a month is 150,000, then the same is 350,000 for new unemployment claims in a week. Doing quick math, then a new unemployment claim would have to last about 3 days to be taken up by a newly created job and I know that ain't happening.

What am I missing? Thanks in advance.
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Old 01-05-2013, 17:40   #2
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It's a lie. Don't believe it.
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Old 01-05-2013, 17:52   #3
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The feds numbers are always subject to, and are in fact nearly always adjusted to reflect higher than reported ....that 7.2 % un-employement rate is likely to jump to 9 % or more depending on the adjustments made, it's never what they first claim.

The un-employment #'s are usually tied to how many NEW claims are made, forgetting and ignoring the fact that over 4 million people have already given up on looking for work, and have burned through their benefits....

When they count ALL the actual un-employed, the percentage rises to double digits easily...What is the ACTUAL percent in say, Toledo or Detroit....33 % ?....more ...?

Stats lie, so do politicians...

I am out...no lie...
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Old 01-05-2013, 17:58   #4
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I've lived in Cleveland for over 35 years. I've seen my fair share of pimps and hustlers.

Obama's water boy media types are trying to do what BHO can't do himself: Inspire Confidence. This is done convincing people and businesses that it is worth taking chances again.

Although, one person at the top of the pyramid can't make much of a difference economically. I believe that Romney would have excelled at the task of encouraging expansion.

The 47%'ers have no actual skin in the game. It is the remaining number that individuals who see through BHO's hustle. They have made the conscientious decision that the financial risk isn't worth the reward.
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Old 01-05-2013, 19:12   #5
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Non-Farm payroll data stats show how many NEW jobs (i.e companies creating new job positions) were created in the market place (It does not include farm workers, private household employees, non-profit organization employees, or government employees). This number needs to be around 125,000 a month just to keep up with population growth. The initial jobless claims number accounts for people who have applied for the first time for unemployment benefits. That doesn't mean that everyone that has initially applied for benefits lost their job because their employer was cutting their current position and reducing staffing levels. Say "Company A" has 1000 employees and during the week they fired 25 people and hired 30 new people to replace those fired plus create 5 new job posts. The company now employs 1005 (Non-Farm increase of 5 jobs). The 25 people let go apply for benefits and become a stat in the weekly claims data, while the 30 that were just hired will come off the continuing claims data (Assuming they were previously unemployed and collecting benefits). Look at the continuing claims data, that shows the number of people currently collecting benefits, its been steady. Historically (off the top of my head) weekly claims avg around 365,000. Initial claims above 400,000 usually signal a recession while claims under 400,000 usually suggest the employers are likely to keep their current staff and look to hire if the economy continues to expand.
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Old 01-06-2013, 04:45   #6
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Thanks for the replies. I thought that somehow both figures were tied to one another, but I guess that just isn't so. Thanks again.
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:54   #7
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Golf course workers north of the Mason Dixon. The airhead that takes your order at McDs. Grass cutter. There are a LOT of people who apply for UE weekly. About 15mil are temp. displaced in a normal good year.

350,000 people is 7,000 per state. Doesn't seem unreasonable at all. The vastness of the workforce is what is hard to grasp.
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:58   #8
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when a person's unemployment runs out and they still down have a job they are no longer counted as unemployed.
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:59   #9
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That # is FIRST TIME CLAIMS.
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Old 01-07-2013, 00:46   #10
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http://detr.state.nv.us/Press/UI_Rat...ember_2012.pdf

Labor force dropped here in vegas...main reason for UE falling.
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