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Old 10-11-2012, 16:51   #1
Eurodriver
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In 2 weeks 916,000 Florida voters went from Obama to Romney

...

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news...oll_romne.html

11 point swing in 2 weeks. Using 11% of 2008's numbers that amounts to just shy of a million votes going the other way.

These polls are absolutely insane or the American public can be swayed like sheep.

Thoughts?
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Old 10-11-2012, 17:12   #2
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All polls are fixed by manipulating not only the sample size, but the demographics. It's simple really. The only poll that will matter will be the one in Nov.
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Old 10-11-2012, 18:52   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eurodriver View Post
...

These polls are absolutely insane or the American public can be swayed like sheep.

Thoughts?
Yes Sir, You are correct. The American public can be swayed like sheep. How do you think the current POTUS was elected.
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Old 10-11-2012, 19:10   #4
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Both. The polls are inaccurate AND the public opinion is easy to sway.

We could probably abandon the whole election circus and toss a coin instead, with the same (or better) results.
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Old 10-11-2012, 19:14   #5
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sorry, I put no faith at all in polls
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Old 10-11-2012, 20:45   #6
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I've been voting since 1964 and I have never been polled. I don't know anyone who has.

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Old 10-11-2012, 20:53   #7
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go to youtube.

Look up penn and teller on polling, they have Frank Luntz from fox news on it, and that pretty much explains polling.
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Old 10-11-2012, 21:17   #8
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I don't place any stock into polls. They can be manipulated the way the media wants.
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Old 10-12-2012, 08:31   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Never Nervous View Post
I've been voting since 1964 and I have never been polled. I don't know anyone who has.

NN
Be careful... I used to say the same thing.

Then about 2 years ago I landed on some list somewhere and I get called by pollsters monthly, with increasing frequency as election day gets closer.

I used to tell them to pound sand, but lately I just give creative answers. If they are very persistent or have the tone like they are reading a script I ask them when they are going to mail me my check and who I am supposed to vote for...
The more they deny that they will buy my vote the more persistent I get. If they last long enough I finish them off by telling them "you paid me $100 last election and I was told I would get more this election!!!" and demanding to speak to their supervisor.

It's the best 10 minutes of my day
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Old 10-12-2012, 08:38   #10
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The proliferation of the internet means some people and the media heavily talk about elections for months and months, but traditionally many people don't start really paying attention until the debates a month beforehand and then do a bulk of their research, however much that may or may not be. Seeing a shift in polls now isn't at all surprising.
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Old 10-12-2012, 08:52   #11
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If you look objectively at the polls for the last few months you will notice there has been a significant overpolling of democrats relative to the 2010 turnout. But perhaps reflective of the 2008 turnout. Republicans have been killing Democrats for new voter registration this cycle and the polls are beginning to reflect the shift.

One can certainly make the case that the polls aren't designed to reflect the real sentiment of voters but are designed to influence that sentiment. Usually what happens is the closer we get to election day the more accurate the polls become because at the end of the day no news organization wants to be off by a large margin from the actual vote--it makes them look bad.

From having worked on several political campaigns I promise the internal polling numbers the candidates see are VERY different from the early polls and they know the real deal. But like I said, the closer we get to the election my experience has been the public polls become more accurate.

Romney is going to trounce Obama from all the internal polls I've seen.
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Old 10-12-2012, 09:42   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
If you look objectively at the polls for the last few months you will notice there has been a significant overpolling of democrats relative to the 2010 turnout. But perhaps reflective of the 2008 turnout.
They are justifying the oversampling based on 2008 turnout, which I think will be significantly off. Liberals aren't nearly as energized as they were in '08 and the opposite is true for conservatives.
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Old 10-12-2012, 09:52   #13
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~"These polls are absolutely insane or the American public can be swayed like sheep"~
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People are not that stupid....People do make mistakes and people learn from those mistakes...This is the most watched election...folks are on it *and had 4 years to digest/analyze...which is very obvious now....Most All can see the the Ignorance coming from the present admin and where our country is...time after time....situation after every situation.....People change course quickly when they see FIRE.
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Old 10-12-2012, 10:03   #14
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The closer to the election, the more accurate the polls become. Pollsters (and the media that employs them) know that their future credibility will be measured against the final results, not the weekly nonsense.

I hate early voting, I wish everyone had to vote on election day or provide a very good and compelling reason to send in an absentee ballot. Fighting a war is a good reason. Going on vacation is not. Early voting locks in decisions before the debates, before the facts are presented. You can't take a vote back.

I wasn't polled for decades, but now I'm in a battleground state and I get polled a lot, but only on my landline so far.

I have my fun getting revenge against the lying media, mostly pretending to be a younger female with assorted demographics (if it's a robo-poll) who voted for Obama in '08 but either undecided or leaning Romney today. It amuses me.
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Old 10-12-2012, 10:24   #15
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I get called dally some times twice in the same day, don't do polls though.

Last edited by ca survivor; 10-12-2012 at 10:25..
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Old 10-12-2012, 10:46   #16
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They are justifying the oversampling based on 2008 turnout, which I think will be significantly off. Liberals aren't nearly as energized as they were in '08 and the opposite is true for conservatives.
Not only that but early voting patterns from several states show Republican voters showing up in significantly greater numbers than the libs. Also, data from several of the so called "swing states" show that requests for absentee ballots from Republicans significantly outnumber requests from Dims.

The polling organizations have already pulled out of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and several other "swing" states where Romney has a significant lead. Politico today, said Obama only had 7 states locked up...and changed the forecast in PA, MI and several other states from leaning Obama to leaning Romney.

I'm telling you...Jimmy Carter II is going bye bye next January. People don't want four more years of this... Its that simple.
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Old 10-12-2012, 11:33   #17
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I think one reason is that the media has been filtering Romney's message and been portraying him as a right-wing, knuckle-dragging, woman-hating, minority-hating capitalist pig. .

During the debate people were actually able to see/hear Romney without the "benefit" of the media's filters, and actually discovered that he is personable, presidential and has some good ideas. .
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Old 10-12-2012, 11:43   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eurodriver View Post
...

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news...oll_romne.html

11 point swing in 2 weeks. Using 11% of 2008's numbers that amounts to just shy of a million votes going the other way.

These polls are absolutely insane or the American public can be swayed like sheep.

Thoughts?
Florida will vote Romney. We're not a swing state this election, nor were we for the mid-terms. All of the crap you hear about this and that is just crap. We're voting R. Guaranteed.
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Old 10-12-2012, 13:46   #19
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Florida will vote Romney. We're not a swing state this election, nor were we for the mid-terms. All of the crap you hear about this and that is just crap. We're voting R. Guaranteed.

NC is not a swing state either. We've been back in the "R" column since about one month after the inauguration. A bunch of our voters must have been given a roofie or something back in 2008.
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Old 10-12-2012, 14:32   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
If you look objectively at the polls for the last few months you will notice there has been a significant overpolling of democrats relative to the 2010 turnout. But perhaps reflective of the 2008 turnout. Republicans have been killing Democrats for new voter registration this cycle and the polls are beginning to reflect the shift.

One can certainly make the case that the polls aren't designed to reflect the real sentiment of voters but are designed to influence that sentiment. Usually what happens is the closer we get to election day the more accurate the polls become because at the end of the day no news organization wants to be off by a large margin from the actual vote--it makes them look bad.

From having worked on several political campaigns I promise the internal polling numbers the candidates see are VERY different from the early polls and they know the real deal. But like I said, the closer we get to the election my experience has been the public polls become more accurate.

Romney is going to trounce Obama from all the internal polls I've seen.
Many folks don't realize the money spent on THESE polls.....the pollsters like to be right here.

I agree....some of the numbers I have heard on internals scare me (on the good side)....major difference in the 'public' polls.




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Old 10-12-2012, 14:59   #21
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Are these new polls coming out still using the D+(8-11) sampling schemes? Or are pollsters starting to adjust to more realistic models in order to save face after the election?
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Old 10-12-2012, 15:00   #22
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Originally Posted by HarlDane View Post
Are these new polls coming out still using the D+(8-11) sampling schemes? Or are pollsters starting to adjust to more realistic models in order to save face after the election?
IMHO....saving face....making adjustments now.



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Old 10-12-2012, 15:23   #23
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Yes Sir, You are correct. The American public can be swayed like sheep. How do you think the current POTUS was elected.
Yes indeed, Obama's election was the most fantastical thing I think I'll ever see in my lifetime. A total incompetent was made, "The Most Powerful Man in the World!". There hopefully will be some books written to explain exactly what happened. Exactly how "ignorant" is the average resident of the planet?
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Old 10-12-2012, 15:57   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eurodriver View Post
These polls are absolutely insane or the American public can be swayed like sheep.

Thoughts?
Thoughts? The American public make sheep look independent and decisive.
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