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Old 08-20-2012, 19:45   #1
jdavionic
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Israeli attack on Iran close...again. what if?

I cannot recall how many times we've seen reports that an Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran is going to happen in the near term. Now, it's being reported as likely before the election.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanya...ls-channel-10/

3 questions -
1. what do you think the probability is for a strike before the US election?

2. if there is such an attack, what do you believe is the near-term impact to the US?

3. have you made any changes to your preps based on the latest reports?
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Old 08-20-2012, 19:55   #2
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1. I have no basis for doing any probability analysis.

2. The near term impact will be a multitude of articles/website postings by people that THEY had the capability of reading tea leaves and said articles/website postings will find support for any cockamannie theory or position that was already held.

3. Absolutely no impact. If you gave me an absolute time when said attack would happen in the next two weeks, I would cease my current project of cycling the stored gasoline through the car and drive down and promptly fill up the empty cans that are piling up during the effort.
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Old 08-20-2012, 20:17   #3
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I suppose I should have offerred my answers as well..
1. Like you, I wouldn't (nor would any here) have the data to do an analysis. We can only speculate. With that said, I think Israel will act in the best interest of Israel. I don't think they care about Obama or any impact to the US elections. Can't say I blame them either. However I don't see why the next 3 months would be any different than waiting 6 months. Of course, they have intelligence data that we do not.

2. Near-term impact - panic at the pumps. I figure gas prices would soar. This will drive all sorts of other items to increase in cost as well.

3. No changes to my preps. I already have gas stored, food, water, etc.
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Old 08-21-2012, 03:51   #4
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1. what do you think the probability is for a strike before the US election?

2. if there is such an attack, what do you believe is the near-term impact to the US?

3. have you made any changes to your preps based on the latest reports?
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Answers to your questions:

1. Who knows, Israel does as it pleases when it pleases them, regardless of what the U.S. advises. So I say cut off the millions we send them. Let them have at it and stay out of it. We can afford another war...PERIOD!

2. Gas prices and other products will be off the wall putting our economy in even worse shape.

3. No! I'm not going into panic mode for something I have no control over. Besides it will mostly effect our economy not my personal safety.
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Old 08-21-2012, 05:02   #5
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Originally Posted by TangoFoxtrot View Post
3. No! I'm not going into panic mode for something I have no control over. Besides it will mostly effect our economy not my personal safety.
Well, that's the nice part about being prepared. You shouldn't have to panic for a potential situation that arises. At that point, it's already too late to effectively prepare because everyone else who sees the threat is also panicking.
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Old 08-21-2012, 05:04   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdavionic View Post
3 questions -
1. what do you think the probability is for a strike before the US election?
Not much.

Quote:
2. if there is such an attack, what do you believe is the near-term impact to the US?
The military budget and potential for deployment would go up and I'd be happier.

Quote:
3. have you made any changes to your preps based on the latest reports?
Nope.
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Old 08-21-2012, 11:48   #7
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Israel will clean Iran's clock, hopefully for good this time.

It is doubtful it will have any affect on me even if we decide to join in and wage war.
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Old 08-21-2012, 12:06   #8
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It would not surprise me to happen at any time.

I would presume AFTER the election since Zero won't help them but there is a point where Israel will have nothing to lose and go regardless.

It will not surprise me to hear a nuke has gone off in Iran, courtesy israel.
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Old 08-21-2012, 12:16   #9
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Consider the source of this article (WND). . but. . an interesting premise.

Is Israel planning EMP attack on Iran?

http://www.wnd.com/2012/08/is-israel...ttack-on-iran/
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Old 08-21-2012, 12:17   #10
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I suspect an attack before the election. If Obama wins Israel cannot count on US support of a post election attack. If they strike pre election Obama has to support Israel or lose the Jewish vote. I don't know the probability but I am expecting an Israeli attack on Iran prior to the election...it's the logical decision to make if you are Israel.

Outside of a short term rise in gas prices I don't think such an attack will have a material impact on me personally.

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Old 08-21-2012, 12:54   #11
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I'm about as prepped as I "think" I can possibly be with my financial, transportation, and real estate assets.

Shelter, water, food, water acquisition/production/processing, food and nutrition acquisition/production/processing/preparation are stored as well as I "think" possible.

Medical and first aid supplies should be reviewed and possibly increased at a few locations...as well as reevaluated for BOB and transportation.

BOB - it's been an off year in that I haven't been on as many wilderness trips. I've been traveling for various other "consulting" engagements and evaluating/acquiring/remodeling real estate. However, that has kept the BOB/GSEFB tested and stocked just the same....as well as the transportation.

Automated tools. Check.
Manual tools. Check.
Old school tools and methods. Check.

Building supplies and materials? Maybe I should review and obtain more.

TP. Check.
Hygiene, clothing, and sundries. Check.

Fuel. Top off all locations more regularly when and if an action becomes MORE likely.
------------------------------------------------------------------

As for Israel-Iran, I don't know what else to do about it. We've been hearing about it and seeing these "types" of headlines for years. I hope for the best for Israel. I hope Iran will completely change course in a positive way....or be thwarted in any endeavor they may undertake to do or help others do bad things.

News of the likelihood of an action will flood the mainstream media before it happens, but will still be a "secret" attack as to when....as if it hasn't flooded the media already...it just can't be noticed above the political noise of the November US elections.


Question 1?

Question 2? Fuel prices increase greatly and rapidly, causing prices for almost everything else to do so. Stock market problems. Commodities market increases. UN issues arise for US and Israel because noone will back Israel but US, and we are a big question mark on that.

Question 3? See first sections of this post.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Interesting article regarding Israel using HEMP on Iran. If HEMP happened anywhere else in the world, it would help us (US) understand its effects more, how to harden against it..........but also invigorate others to do it against US.....as if they don't want to destroy US already.

:tagged:

Last edited by BR549; 08-21-2012 at 13:45..
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Old 08-21-2012, 13:01   #12
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That "article" also mentions the possibility that they could EMP the whole area INCLUDING ISRAEL but power would be back on in a few days. WTH? I thought EMP was a crippling years-long recovery event?
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Old 08-21-2012, 13:26   #13
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double post


Israel "can" clean Iran's clock. However, I don't know if they "will" because I don't know "who" will do "what" to dissuade them from it or who "might" attempt to prevent it politically or militarily.

Last edited by BR549; 08-21-2012 at 13:40..
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Old 08-21-2012, 13:39   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jdavionic View Post
Well, that's the nice part about being prepared. You shouldn't have to panic for a potential situation that arises. At that point, it's already too late to effectively prepare because everyone else who sees the threat is also panicking.

+1


Topping off maybe..

..but the bulk should already be in place.
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Old 08-21-2012, 14:44   #15
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1 Coming up on 100%

2 Hizballah has sleeper cells in every major US city for a reason. 9.11 is going to look like summer picnic day.

3 No
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Old 08-21-2012, 20:03   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wjv View Post
Consider the source of this article (WND). . but. . an interesting premise.

Is Israel planning EMP attack on Iran?

http://www.wnd.com/2012/08/is-israel...ttack-on-iran/
I just don't see this as a possibility. Perhaps ignorance on my part, but I just think that even if it is possible to keep it localized, Israel would create an environment where nukes become a more acceptable method of warfare.
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Old 08-22-2012, 00:32   #17
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2 Hizballah has sleeper cells in every major US city for a reason. 9.11 is going to look like summer picnic day.
Hey, we took out Iraq and they didn't even attack us. If Hezbollah wants to bring war to the continental U.S. then they are signing their own death warrants and they know it.
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Old 08-22-2012, 04:15   #18
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Russia is the wild card,will they aid Iran.'08.
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Old 08-22-2012, 04:43   #19
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Israel will clean Iran's clock, hopefully for good this time.

It is doubtful it will have any affect on me even if we decide to join in and wage war.

Ahhhh I'm not so sure about that. Israel was getting its *** whacked pretty hard when they entered Lebanon in 2005. I don't think they have much steam without the U.S. backing them. Just my thought.
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Old 08-22-2012, 10:28   #20
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Hey, we took out Iraq and they didn't even attack us. If Hezbollah wants to bring war to the continental U.S. then they are signing their own death warrants and they know it.
You are talking about people who want to die so that they go to muslim bordello in the sky.
You do not understand that there is an entirely different mindset based on entirely different morals called islam and especially shia islam. They believe it is their duty to create as much chaos as possible to bring Mahdy back.

Hizballah is controlled by Iran. Why would they attack US for destroying Iraq, their main regional enemy?

US took out Saddam and gave control of the country to Shia and basically gave the Iraq to Iran.
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Old 08-22-2012, 11:27   #21
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different response

Y2K had a definite point in time. The subject matter of this thread doesn't have a definite point in time.

I have mentioned before, my dad was in the US Navy and visited Germany when the Nazis were in power. When I was a kid, I asked him if people didn't know war was coming and why didn't they make preparations. My dad's response was simple. No one knew when.

So if it were December 8, 1941, and shtf, what would you have done as a preper? Buy tires, fill up the gas tank, buy sugar, buy liquor or wine, buy ammo, buy guns. Rationing and governmental regulations came into play almost immediately.

Today, you live in a "just in time" supply line of living items. There is no way that you can buy all you would need for the next year and store it. If you don't have the money to put in a large propane tank, dig a permitted water well or buy that lifetime supply of tools, then you simply scale down and buy what you can afford - a 5 gallon propane tank, an additional 50 gallon water drum or the basic ka-bar knife that is on sale at Big 5 Sporting Goods - prep problem addressed.
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Old 08-23-2012, 03:34   #22
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Hey, we took out Iraq and they didn't even attack us. If Hezbollah wants to bring war to the continental U.S. then they are signing their own death warrants and they know it.
They do? Oh you mean we will attack them on their soil and spend billions of taxpayer dollars to rebuild their country after we desimate it.
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Old 08-23-2012, 03:56   #23
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Sooner or later, somebody will light off a nuke somewhere, and the middle east is as likely a candidate as there is.

The world didn't end when we nuked Japan and it won't end when they do it over there (or over here either).
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Old 08-23-2012, 06:41   #24
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different response

Quote:
Originally Posted by cowboy1964 View Post
Hey, we took out Iraq and they didn't even attack us. If Hezbollah wants to bring war to the continental U.S. then they are signing their own death warrants and they know it."

A response followed:

"They do? Oh you mean we will attack them on their soil and spend billions of taxpayer dollars to rebuild their country after we desimate it"

.Hezbollah is a suspect in the torture and murder of U.S. Colonel William Higgins. No response from the US government. No payback. No revenge. No lesson taught.

Conversely, when a Soviet diplomat was kidnapped, the Soviets kidnapped male relatives of the kidnappers and cut off genitals. The diplomat was promptly released.

No spies on the ground were put into Iraq between Iraqi War 1 and Iraqi War 2. None. Democrats/Republicans/political leaders chose not to spend the money in that direction. Yet, we are supposed to believe that some Shiite group of young males setting off bombs is supposedly going to sign their death warrants? Hardly. 10 years to catch one Sunni, Bin Laden!

I challenge someone to relate what steps were taken and what results in the investigation of the death of Lt. Col Higgins who was hung by the neck on a meat hook.

This is why discussions about revenge, nuking, turning a location into a radioactive parking lot for 1000 years are unproductive.

By the way, you are damn lucky. The Turks rejected an invasion from Turkey into Iraq. Your troops were on the ships off Turkey. They had to go through the Suez Canal to Kuwait. If Saddam had sunk a few ships in the Canal ala 1956, your fantastic, great, well lead military would have been defeated before a single shot was fired in anger.
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Old 08-23-2012, 09:05   #25
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Consider the source of this article (WND). . but. . an interesting premise.

Is Israel planning EMP attack on Iran?

http://www.wnd.com/2012/08/is-israel...ttack-on-iran/
Israel does have a tendency to take the gloves off. The ramifications would be huge from this, but it would do the job once and for all.
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