[PaulMason]

Originally Posted by lawman800

No well thought out plan survives first engagement.

“He who fails to plan, plans to fail”

[kirgi08]

Originally Posted by Foxtrotx1

I understand being prepared for bad weather, but the complete downfall of society?

Insurance is just that,no matter what the cause or need.'08.

[beatcop]

Downfall? Probably not likely.

Some freak incident: EMP, swine flu, etc. Localized issues due to weather, civil issues (riot, summit meeting). The EMP scenario would be ugly...I wonder what the threat assessment from the 3 letter agencies is.

[mac66]

Originally Posted by beatcop

That "normalcy bias" pretty much nailed it down.

The USA may have a decent track record, however humanity doesn't...Serbs, Croats, Liberia, etc.

The old "thin veneer of society" saying comes into play. Sometimes the appearance of a good defense just keeps honest people honest....or at least from entertaining thoughts of shopping at your house.

-seatbelts, full tank of gas, full shelves, a gun, etc....it's called cheap insurance. I think it satisfies some primitive brain need...some people have been deprogrammed over thousands of years to even acknowledge "safety issues".

In the threat/risk assessment business they have a little thing they use called a risk/threat assessment matrix. This matrix helps one figure out what the threats are and what to spend your time, energy and money on to protect or mitigate those threats. The determining factors are "Probability, Vulnerability, Criticality and Mitigation." Probability is frequency/likleyhood of occurrence. Vulnerability is how susceptible you are to a specific threat/risk. Criticality is what impact it will have on you and Mitigation is what countermeasures or things are in place to lessen the impact should it occur.

One places numerical value on each from lowest to highest and then figures out a base value. Using the highest average value determines the priority one places on addressing the threat.

For example, one calls the police department and finds out the biggest threat in ones neighborhood is the theft of lawn mowers from unsecured garages. So the person does a matrix and determines they yes it is very likely to happen since he has a lawnmower in an area where they are being stolen. He is vulnerable because he has an unsecured garage and it is critical because he cuts grass for a living. He does not have homeowners insurance so has nothing to mitigate his loss.

So he goes on Glock Talk to find out what to do. Some people suggest a lawn mower rifle, while some suggest a shotgun. Others debate whether a 9mm or 45 is best for penetration. Eventually someone suggests that gangs of lawnmower thieves present a problem so you need a tier one AR with a mountain of ammo.

Hey, don't have normalcy bias, it could happen.

Some EMT guy suggests wearing soft body armor to bed with night vision goggles while mounting a flame thrower on a hot dog cart.

That completely off topic debate swirls around in the bowl for a week or two before someone calls for a reality check. "Hey, just lock your garage" says he. Reality check boy is angrily denounced as buzz kill and party pooper and sheepishly slips away to watch from the side lines from now on.

[beatcop]

^ lol I have a been issued a few risk matrix templates from the .mil
A 15 minute block of instruction would probably go a long way in helping folks make more sound decisions.

[PaulMason]

Originally Posted by mac66

In the threat/risk assessment business they have a little thing they use called a risk/threat assessment matrix. This matrix helps one figure out what the threats are and what to spend your time, energy and money on to protect or mitigate those threats. The determining factors are "Probability, Vulnerability, Criticality and Mitigation." Probability is frequency/likleyhood of occurrence. Vulnerability is how susceptible you are to a specific threat/risk. Criticality is what impact it will have on you and Mitigation is what countermeasures or things are in place to lessen the impact should it occur.

One places numerical value on each from lowest to highest and then figures out a base value. Using the highest average value determines the priority one places on addressing the threat.

For example, one calls the police department and finds out the biggest threat in ones neighborhood is the theft of lawn mowers from unsecured garages. So the person does a matrix and determines they yes it is very likely to happen since he has a lawnmower in an area where they are being stolen. He is vulnerable because he has an unsecured garage and it is critical because he cuts grass for a living. He does not have homeowners insurance so has nothing to mitigate his loss.

So he goes on Glock Talk to find out what to do. Some people suggest a lawn mower rifle, while some suggest a shotgun. Others debate whether a 9mm or 45 is best for penetration. Eventually someone suggests that gangs of lawnmower thieves present a problem so you need a tier one AR with a mountain of ammo.

Hey, don't have normalcy bias, it could happen.

Some EMT guy suggests wearing soft body armor to bed with night vision goggles while mounting a flame thrower on a hot dog cart.

That completely off topic debate swirls around in the bowl for a week or two before someone calls for a reality check. "Hey, just lock your garage" says he. Reality check boy is angrily denounced as buzz kill and party pooper and sheepishly slips away to watch from the side lines from now on.

That isn't a reality check - it is a straw man argument.

Just asking the question as you did in your first post is not a reality check either.

Watch the videos and then tell us why and how it couldn't happen.

That would be a reality check.

[Lt Scott 14]

My rural neighbor and I have cut back all foliage 200yds for a perimeter.

His 5th Spec Forces training had been teaching the "Yards" of RVN, he has not forgotten how. He has respect in his heart, but his eyes say something else. Just as a reminder, they( Special Forces and "Montagnards") lived together during the 60's. His grey hair and beard seem to emit a laid back lifestyle. He hates gangbangers and terrorists.

With tiger traps, punjii pits, tree snares, and other pyrotechnics, said to me: "Tell them to come and get some!"
I saw his Class A uniform once. He was a decorated warrior, now a farmer. He earned that Green Beret. The shrapnel he carries still, and the past keep him prepped for the future.

Should we preppers feel less confident with some You Tube Yo Yos?
I don't. My neighbor would have volunteered to hunt down Bin Laden, and probably find him. Maybe sooner than our forces did. He's in his 70's, he's slowing down a little bit.

[Tom Kanik]

Nice post Lt., and kudos to your friend!

Well, I finally watched the OP's videos, and I have to agree that there IS greater safety and strength in numbers. However, prepping your property is a good idea as well. Here in our rural area, the first "bad guys" to come calling will be the knothead or two who think they can get something for nothing, via theft, intimidation, or whatever.
There is a lot of land around here for "evidence disposal".

[mac66]

Originally Posted by PaulMason

That isn't a reality check - it is a straw man argument.

Just asking the question as you did in your first post is not a reality check either.

Watch the videos and then tell us why and how it couldn't happen.

That would be a reality check.

Low probability is the reality. Spending a lot of time, money and energy on a remote possibility is time, money and energy wasted.

I've been prepping since Jimmy Carter was elected but I have learned to put first things first. Basic needs over fantasy charged knee jerk reaction. Taking pro-active steps in building a sustainable lifestyle over a bunker or siege mentality.

So getting back to my point..and the videos (and reality) what can you do to mitigate the impact of gangs invading your space? Uh....don't live in a ghetto for one thing. If they do come your way, leave.

[PaulMason]

Originally Posted by mac66

Low probability is the reality.

Low probability of what, why and how?

[Unistat]

Originally Posted by mac66

Low probability is the reality. Spending a lot of time, money and energy on a remote possibility is time, money and energy wasted.

I've been prepping since Jimmy Carter was elected but I have learned to put first things first. Basic needs over fantasy charged knee jerk reaction. Taking pro-active steps in building a sustainable lifestyle over a bunker or siege mentality.

So getting back to my point..and the videos (and reality) what can you do to mitigate the impact of gangs invading your space? Uh....don't live in a ghetto for one thing. If they do come your way, leave.

So why didn't you just say this to begin with instead of being a trolling jerk?

[PaulMason]

Originally Posted by mac66

So getting back to my point..and the videos (and reality) what can you do to mitigate the impact of gangs invading your space? Uh....don't live in a ghetto for one thing. If they do come your way, leave.

FYI - the guy in the video lives in a rural area and has land. He also mentions that his 'gang' is his extended family and friends - not a ghetto 'gang'.

So not living in a ghetto doesn't deal with him.

[racerford]

His message and credibility are muted by his terminology.

[BR549]

mac66, thank you for your opinion from another perspective.

____________________________________________

There's no reason to start calling mac66 a "troll" or blast his opinion and reference as a "straw man" argument.

His points are worthy of consideration.

____________________________________________

"Let's get the gang together and have a cookout."

[Bilbo Bagins]

Originally Posted by mac66

Reality check time...

In the 20th and 21st century to date, name one catastrophic event in this country that precipitated the kind of scenarios you guys are talking about?....(cricket sounds )

What on God's green earth makes you think that the US will suddenly go Barbarian?

While not that catastrophic or barbaric, the Rodney King Riots and Katrina come to mind.

All that happened because of a court verdict, and some flooding. Worst things can happen here in the USA that could those events look like child's play. We have been very lucky.

I love the naivete of this thread.

Urban Street thugs are out of shape and lazy.
Umm no, I challenge you to pull up into a urban ghetto playground and gather up every kid between the ages of 14 to 18 and put them up against your best high school athlete from your town and I bet your kids WILL lose. Granted there are fat and out of shape kids in the ghetto, but the vast majority are lean and VERY mean.

When we shoot some of them, and torture a few, they will go away.

This makes me laugh. So Mr. prepper and his friends and family are going to out Badass urban thugs. You are going to outbadass a group where 1 in 4 were in prision at one time in there lives, where a larger percentage was physically abused as a kid, where both male and female have at least a dozen street fight under their belts. Pre SHTF they already live in a crap hole and probably already had a friend or family member die due to street violence or drugs. You and your "time out" , "hot sauce on the tounge for saying a bad word" spoiled, shelter ass is going to outviolence them??? Don't make me laugh.

I was born and raise in a rough area of Philly, and I currently live in a suburb, and I have lived in some rural areas. The difference is night and day. I have seen a 14 year old city boy POUND and BLOODY a 18 rural kid that was twice his size. I have seen a Teenage ghetto girl beat the snot out of an athletic suburan Teenage boy that same age. The numbers are also not in your favor, we are talking thousands of people. What is the average population of a small town, and how many police officers total. Maybe a 100 people and 6 or 7 cops. That against thousands, may moe. Even if you are well trained and organized how are you going to repel that without getting overrun.

[John Rambo]

Originally Posted by Bilbo Bagins

While not that catastrophic or barbaric, the Rodney King Riots and Katrina come to mind.

All that happened because of a court verdict, and some flooding. Worst things can happen here in the USA that could those events look like child's play. We have been very lucky.

I love the naivete of this thread.

Urban Street thugs are out of shape and lazy.
Umm no, I challenge you to pull up into a urban ghetto playground and gather up every kid between the ages of 14 to 18 and put them up against your best high school athlete from your town and I bet your kids WILL lose. Granted there are fat and out of shape kids in the ghetto, but the vast majority are lean and VERY mean.

When we shoot some of them, and torture a few, they will go away.

This makes me laugh. So Mr. prepper and his friends and family are going to out Badass urban thugs. You are going to outbadass a group where 1 in 4 were in prision at one time in there lives, where a larger percentage was physically abused as a kid, where both male and female have at least a dozen street fight under their belts. Pre SHTF they already live in a crap hole and probably already had a friend or family member die due to street violence or drugs. You and your "time out" , "hot sauce on the tounge for saying a bad word" spoiled, shelter ass is going to outviolence them??? Don't make me laugh.

I was born and raise in a rough area of Philly, and I currently live in a suburb, and I have lived in some rural areas. The difference is night and day. I have seen a 14 year old city boy POUND and BLOODY a 18 ready kid that was twice his size. I have seen a Teenage ghetto girl beat the snot out of an athletic suburan Teenage boy that same age. The numbers are also not in your favor, we are talking thousands of people. What is the average population of a small town, and how many police officers total. Maybe a 100 people and 6 or 7 cops. That against thousands, may moe. Even if you are well trained and organized how are you going to repel that without getting overrun.

I like that you brought up Katrina, because that is EXACTLY what happened in Katrina. Degenerate creoles slinked into nice, upscale neighborhoods which had mobilized a militia, degenerate creoles got holes blown in them.

Any more questions?

[racerford]

Originally Posted by Bilbo Bagins

While not that catastrophic or barbaric, the Rodney King Riots and Katrina come to mind.

All that happened because of a court verdict, and some flooding. Worst things can happen here in the USA that could those events look like child's play. We have been very lucky.

I love the naivete of this thread.

........What is the average population of a small town, and how many police officers total. Maybe a 100 people and 6 or 7 cops. That against thousands, may moe. Even if you are well trained and organized how are you going to repel that without getting overrun.

The Rodney King riots did not spread out into the suburbs, and certainly not to the rural areas. The shop keepers that sat on their roofs for days did not get burned out. The ones that left were looted. Strangely the thugs went to where there was no resistance. They avoided places where their buddies were getting shot at.

The Katrina problems did not spread out in to the rural areas. As I recall one sheriff stopped them at he bridge to his parish and those were not thugs coming out there it was just people trying to get out of the area. As noted above there were not roving gangs that overcame armed resistance. Again they came to avoid where there was armed resistance and went where there wasn't.

[PaulMason]

Originally Posted by racerford

The Rodney King riots did not spread out into the suburbs, and certainly not to the rural areas. The shop keepers that sat on their roofs for days did not get burned out. The ones that left were looted. Strangely the thugs went to where there was no resistance. They avoided places where their buddies were getting shot at.

The Katrina problems did not spread out in to the rural areas. As I recall one sheriff stopped them at he bridge to his parish and those were not thugs coming out there it was just people trying to get out of the area. As noted above there were not roving gangs that overcame armed resistance. Again they came to avoid where there was armed resistance and went where there wasn't.

All you are talking about is only phase one.

[scccdoc]

Originally Posted by PaulMason

All you are talking about is only phase one.

You have serious problems, dude.Get some help................... DOC

[PaulMason]

Originally Posted by scccdoc

You have serious problems,

Which are ...

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by mac66

So getting back to my point..and the videos (and reality) what can you do to mitigate the impact of gangs invading your space? Uh....don't live in a ghetto for one thing. If they do come your way, leave.

I think the best bet is to not be in a rival gang, and keep a low profile. A big problem with numbers is that they are very hard to hide. I can make a group of up to maybe 12 people reasonably hard to find in many different rural, suburban and urban settings. Even if someone notices evidence of them, or spot one or two, they're not going to as tempting targets compared to a large encampment.

Such large groups stand out, making them a more-appealing target to other groups vying for larger numbers of resources. Then, it becomes a war of attrition. I'd really rather avoid that. My own personal #1 rule of life is to not tempt trouble, and somewhere just behind that is to always have an exit strategy. Large groups aren't generally conducive to this.

With increased numbers, there also comes comes the point where the ranks grow larger than leadership and available resources can keep in order. Through my work, I've had to feed, shelter, and supply groups of workers of varying size... Logistics grows exponentially more complicated, as the numbers grow. After a certain point, the biggest threat comes from discord and dissent within the group. Toss that in some kind of emergency situation, and it sounds like a logistical nightmare. Undisciplined gangs of people don't have a great track record of maintaining harmony amongst it ranks, without bloodshed.

I am using really broad generalizations, and it's somewhat subjective, though... Given my own circumstances, I wouldn't consider having a large group. Where I live, most folks lose the will to live when their 4G cellular internet signal cuts out. Taking numbers from this pool, would be like hanging an anchor around my neck. Perhaps if I lived in a tighter-knit community, that was more self-sustained, I'd consider it. YMMV.

[kirgi08]

If it gets that bad we will ghost,we got plenty of preps and the ability ta grow more.'08.

[BR549]

tagged

as ta dat dare quartstian at hann bout dees, wee bees a gosen awl redd ee.

dubbel taggid

[PaulMason]

Originally Posted by BR549

tagged

as ta dat dare quartstian at hann bout dees, wee bees a gosen awl redd ee.

dubbel taggid

After 4 pages?

[G29Reload]

Originally Posted by Tom Kanik

Nice post Lt., and kudos to your friend!

Well, I finally watched the OP's videos, and I have to agree that there IS greater safety and strength in numbers. However, prepping your property is a good idea as well. Here in our rural area, the first "bad guys" to come calling will be the knothead or two who think they can get something for nothing, via theft, intimidation, or whatever.
There is a lot of land around here for "evidence disposal".

Yep. I think there is room for fantasy on both sides of this argument.

Gangs could clearly be problematic where ever you live. BUT:

If they think they're invincible, they've got another thing coming.

Even to an outnumbered homeowner in a rural area, I know this:

If a bunch of say, even 15-20 gang members come up the pike towards my place, I am at the top of a gentle well cleared slope well set back from the road. If they think a bunch of street punks holding Glocks sideways and waving an AK is any match for a well concealed, disciplined shooter with a scoped M1A with a full magazine and more beside him, well like any other self interested person they'll desire retreat or look for an easier target when their buddies are dead or screaming in agony on the lawn in front of them. Scum like that like easy targets, they lack discipline. Attaching a cost tends to change their outlook when there will be so many other easy sheep for prey.

And there's more than a few like me along the way they'll meet before they get here.

I think their discouragement factor will be….elevated somewhat.

Just sayin...