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Old 09-09-2012, 12:59   #1
PaulMason
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Why most Doomsday preppers will die

There are a lot of videos out there about
Why most Doomsday preppers will die

Listen to the first one and see if you want to watch the others. Don't dismiss him too much. The first video he is a bit wack but calms down in the second one and gives some good ideas.










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Old 09-09-2012, 13:50   #2
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Can you boil down what's said?
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Old 09-09-2012, 14:13   #3
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One is silly, He keeps saying we "gangs". maybe he really means cohesive prepper communities for mutual defense. Gangs are not the answer as they function on fear and lack a solid moral compass. When your moral compass says that theft and murder are OK, it is tough to think it will last as they steal then murder each other.
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Old 09-09-2012, 15:05   #4
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Can you boil down what's said?
Video 1 and 2’s The quick and dirty version

The video author clearly says “he isn’t ready.”

While protrayed in a very poor manner he is encouraging people to form their own “ good gangs” or get “numbers” which is a valid point. My house might be stocked with 5 years of food, 50 guns, 100,000 rounds of ammo etc but unless my wife and I are going to stand guard 24 hours a day eventually a “bad gang” might come a knockin.

Quote “If your not rollin’ with a klan of at least thirty people you don’t have anything...five peoples is not going to cut it when doomsday comes...”

He also makes a valid second point. There isn’t a show on TV which shows how a group of people are preparing – probably because a group would never expose themselves to this type of media attention if they are serious.

However, some of the quotes are priceless

”yes, I would go out and buy some dry canned goods whatever you call that stuff from them what do you call them Muslim people...Quakers..or whatever you call them people”

His over reaching points are valid: Networking, Secrecy in your preps and the fact if the SHTF roaming gangs will form...and they will come lookin for stuff

However, I’m not sure if his point is you should be forming these gangs or he is subvertly saying he could form a gang “arm 60 people” and then come knockin?

Another Quote ” you may have a six month supply of food but you have nutin’ when my posse come for you...its our supply”

”Don’t think people aren’t noticing you stockpiling stuff in your garage.”

”Assemble baby...even though I ain’t ready I have guns and I have family”

Objectively, this guy is giving good advice and at the very same time strikes me as the type of person I should be afraid of.
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Old 09-09-2012, 15:33   #5
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t
Objectively, this guy is giving good advice and at the very same time strikes me as the type of person I should be afraid of.
Odd, I was thinking I hope he doesnt fall on those Oakleys when his clan came calling. I do like my Oakleys.
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Old 09-09-2012, 15:38   #6
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Odd, I was thinking I hope he doesnt fall on those Oakleys when his clan came calling. I do like my Oakleys.

Agree...I like mines too!
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Old 09-09-2012, 16:05   #7
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Objectively, this guy is giving good advice and at the very same time strikes me as the type of person I should be afraid of.
You got it. I posted them so I could come back later today to watch them. My gut tells me he is a good guy living in the south with a large family in a rural area.

He makes good points about how few are prepared at all and when desperate they will do desperate things. And there are a lot of them.

Other things:
You need a lot of people or your own gang to survive. Going it alone won't work for too long.

It won't be safe anywhere - people will flee the cities.

No matter how many guns or bullets you have, it you have to use them it is too late for you.

People will find you as you as you go about your business on your farm.

Better to have an underground shelter then a home. People will check out a home.

He would send peaceable people to your area to find out your resources.

He would not go quietly away when he and his gang was hungry with their ribs showing and they saw you with your beans and other food.

I think what was good about it was what a non prepper saw other people. It also should give others pause for how they see thing happening and how others would act. I think he was recommending the 'gray man concept' but didn't know it.
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Old 09-09-2012, 18:10   #8
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In an obnoxious way, he makes some good points. However the key point about considering gangs is a given to most serious "preppers". Going beyond that, his remedy is flawed.

Gangs of predators often turn on each other in normal times, let alone desperate times. I know a person who is our local "gang expert", now heads up the gang task force in our county. This guy talks like someone that has no idea what a gang is really like.

He does raise a good point that folks should consider. If you plan on making it with just you and your family & close friends, how will you evade or defend against roaming gangs. If you are part of a larger group, do you have a plan for dealing with a larger-scale group attack.
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Old 09-09-2012, 18:12   #9
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Why most preppers will die

Ok. I don't need three videos to say:

1. most preppers will die because they fail to see the world from the other guy's perspective. This is why in the martial arts that you learn to take blows as much as you learn to give them.

2. most preppers fail to understand that the opposition will go up the learning curve as fast as the preppers do after shtf. The implicit assumption in "my rural situation is best" or "bugging out is best" is that everyone else in the world will be unable to change and adapt. Oh, no, the hordes will be the real world equivalent of Pacmen. Don't count on it.

3. most preppers fail to understand that their "victories" will come at night or through stealth. Very few people will learn how to shoot at night, fight at night, track animals or track people now. Oh, no. They will wait until it is forced upon them after shtf.

4. most preppers already understand that the most difficult challenge will be to get together in a group for survival. The problem is that when things are good, people just don't exchange ideas, learn skills together or practice. There is no way around it. However, they also understand that you ambush your opposition and take out the head and things become more even in dealing with a gang.
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Old 09-09-2012, 19:00   #10
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The whole "gang" mentality is a very realistic threat as people who have not will gang up on the people who have.

This is why I am so glad that I do not live in an urban area.
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Old 09-09-2012, 19:23   #11
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He does raise a good point that folks should consider. If you plan on making it with just you and your family & close friends, how will you evade or defend against roaming gangs. If you are part of a larger group, do you have a plan for dealing with a larger-scale group attack.
This thread sort of puts the prepper between a rock and a hard place...well IMO at least.

I mean the first rule of prep-club is we don't talk about prep-club in our everyday lives. Then at the same time, according to the replies here, if you don't have a "gang/group/big family/etc." ready to roll in an organized and efficient fashion before/when the SHTF you are screwed against the other thugs/scum of society when they and their large pack come a knockin.

The "gang" has long been my biggest fear...well that and kidnapping. Both in good times and bad.

However, after working with the true gang members/leaders, at least in my area, day in and day out for years....I do not fear the smaller block/corner gangs that love to hold up students, rob old ladies and shoot each other. They are quite stupid and have very poor planning skills even on a street smart level.

But larger and more organized gangs pose a very real threat in cities as well as more remote areas when the SHTF. I've tried bringing this up before over the years in different forums on GT and EVERY time it either turns into a "no matter what you are dead" thread or a "you are paranoid and have nothing to fear" thread. Neither stance is really helpful unless it serves to force us to acknowledge reality. If that is really the case shouldn't we all take a few notes from suicide bomber maybe as a last ditch effort to protect the loved ones we will be leaving behind?

Anyone willing to discuss actual tactics? Maybe a wife and kid or two can be trained and utilized effectively? Where does technology come into play (i.e. solar powered game cams and such)?

It would be refreshing if, for once, a valid discussion can take place on how to specifically combat, defeat and survive against the roving pack of thugs that are organized and only seeking to rob, rape, and kill anyone they can.

-Emt1581
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Old 09-09-2012, 19:27   #12
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Anyone willing to discuss actual tactics? Maybe a wife and kid or two can be trained and utilized effectively? Where does technology come into play (i.e. solar powered game cams and such)?

It would be refreshing if, for once, a valid discussion can take place on how to specifically combat, defeat and survive against the roving pack of thugs that are organized and only seeking to rob, rape, and kill anyone they can.

-Emt1581
The problem is that the approach you take may differ significantly depending upon the situation. A short-term situation where you can hunker down and ride out the situation at home is one thing - e.g., natural disaster that cuts power for a week. However a long-term situation (e.g., pandemic) that includes a complete breakdown of the infrastructure that has no end in sight...that's something quite different.
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Old 09-09-2012, 19:34   #13
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The problem is that the approach you take may differ significantly depending upon the situation. A short-term situation where you can hunker down and ride out the situation at home is one thing - e.g., natural disaster that cuts power for a week. However a long-term situation (e.g., pandemic) that includes a complete breakdown of the infrastructure that has no end in sight...that's something quite different.
But that is ok...the first wouldn't really need to be discussed because it is a typical (if you can call it that) home defense, taking shifts, being ready until things return to normal...situation.

Whereas the latter is the real concern here...long term. This gives the moronic thugs that are currently not a serious threat, time to either die/be killed or learn....learning is dangerous as they ARE teachable. So let's discuss that longer term, smarter, and organized "gang"./defense...

-Emt1581
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Old 09-09-2012, 19:35   #14
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The problem is that the approach you take may differ significantly depending upon the situation. A short-term situation where you can hunker down and ride out the situation at home is one thing - e.g., natural disaster that cuts power for a week. However a long-term situation (e.g., pandemic) that includes a complete breakdown of the infrastructure that has no end in sight...that's something quite different.
The title of this thread did have the word 'Doomsday' in it and that is what the guy in the video talks about. We could go with that.

But, there could be scenarios where even short term disasters could be similar. Say for example there wasn't enough warning for Katrina and no evacuation. Then after the hurricane passes the population tries to leave.
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Old 09-09-2012, 21:27   #15
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This is one of the nice things about being part of the LDS community and having a big family. Historically, we have banded together in times of adversity. Entire congregations (wards) will band together to ensure security for each other and we tend to be much more prepared than the avg person.

It's a network we already have built in. Other religious types might have a similar resource.

It's not perfect, but it is better than what most people have.
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Old 09-09-2012, 22:25   #16
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While not very eloquent, or well spoken, he did have several good points.



You need numbers, and you need a plan. Because people are watching.


Otherwise, you're just a warehouse custodian for someone else cache
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Old 09-09-2012, 22:38   #17
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It would be refreshing if, for once, a valid discussion can take place on how to specifically combat, defeat and survive against the roving pack of thugs that are organized and only seeking to rob, rape, and kill anyone they can.

-Emt1581
First thing I would do is build a hot dog cart on a trailer that could withstand small arms fire and blasts from underneath such as mines.

Then, I would disguise it with hand painted signs and take it to a Sams, Costco, Best Buy, or a Target to blend in with the surroundings......
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Old 09-09-2012, 22:48   #18
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For EMT

1. Do you have a plan with your wife and child(ren) of what they do when they are away from the home when shtf?

I was widowed. I had my kid licensed as a ham radio operator. He kept his bugout pack locked in the principal's office. So, EMT what plan do you have for your child.
I warned my kid that if we had a riot when he was at school not to trust the school administrators and to do what seemed prudent. So when we had a riot in Los Angeles, he took off from school and had his plan.

2. If your "plan" is simply for everyone to run home no matter what, then you have no plan. 99% of your community will have the same plan - and the streets, school areas and freeways will be overwhelmed by people driving crazy.

3. You start with a simple plan. That puts you up the food chain and distinguishes you from the rest of the herd.

4. This is how you deal with the gang problem. I am 8 blocks from one gang and 1 mile from another. I have already figured out the routes of attack and defense. Have you done so for your neighborhood?

5. I liked the comment by one member that he was rural. My observations are: 1. there are highways and freeways to most rural areas (hint - the road from your front door to the city is also the road from the city to your front door). 2. Yep, there will always be people thinking that the locals will block the roads and that will stop people. No, it doesn't stop motorcyclists, flankers, and hungry people. 3. If the Soviets could isolate the Ukraine and kill 6,000,000 people by taking their food in the 1930s, it is a hell of a lot easier to take on and attack people with the use of cell phones, radios, off road vehicles, and motorcycles (hint - there are some gangs that are motorcycle gangs).

Oh, I will concede that being rural gives you a few days. I am urban with 13,000 souls to the square mile. No one else on the block has been in the military. The guy behind me was a Captain in the Korean Army in South Vietnam. Of course, he has been retired for a few years.
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Old 09-09-2012, 22:52   #19
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It would be refreshing if, for once, a valid discussion can take place on how to specifically combat, defeat and survive against the roving pack of thugs that are organized and only seeking to rob, rape, and kill anyone they can.


Unless you have a good number of friends, equipped, and on hand, if a large group shows up to do any of that, your dead.



and thats why your repeated questions, always get answered the same. Because the answer hasn't changed.


Do you know why the maginot line fell?

Thats the exact same reason you can't win this scenario.




Unlike the stories/books I'm sure you read, based upon your posts. In real life, you simply don't go against 10-15-20 armed guys looking to cause bad will, and live unless you have a similarly sized group, or are equipped with some sort of force multipliers to even the odds.
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Old 09-10-2012, 00:34   #20
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Ugh, I had a huge post typed, but I lost it due to an errant click.

To sum up:

1. Yes, you need a group you can trust. Lone Wolf just doesn't cut it. See Selco's account of his experience in the Balkans War. If you don't have a group, get on that. I can not stress it enough, don't forget it as you read my critique below. You need a group, not only for raiders, but because no man is an island. Diversity of skills is highly desired, many hands make light the work, and iron sharpens iron, and all that.

2. Nope, most will not die. Preppers are more organized into groups than he thinks. There are more of us than, I think, we realize. Then there are the people who don't call themselves "survivalists" or "preppers" that have training and resources I envy. They have the mindset to use them too.

3. Urban thug gangs aren't that good. He overestimates their ability to attack a fortified position while under fire. Preppers do discus raiders from time to time you know. Most of these thugs won't make it more than a few miles out of the city. Unfortunately, that is the zone I live and work in.

4. In a real Fall, by the time they realize the Gov isn't going to truck food into the city, they will be thinned out and weakened. Then before they get to the outer suburbs, we in the danger zone will have had our shot. They don't have it together enough to get out early. The Japanese were afraid to invade for a reason. I doubt some thug insurrectionists are going to make it that far.

5. He's unorganized so he expects us to be unorganized. Really it's typical of criminal thought. Boy, crooks sure are surprised when their robbery "victim" pulls a gun and fights back.

6. I'm more worried about real organised groups. There is a reason the Los Zetas are so successful. They are ex-military and know what they are doing. I'm concerned about OMCs and rogue/raider preppers. Yes, I view Lone Wolfers with a wary eye.

7. I don't currently prep for TEOTWAWKI. I prep for smaller stuff like natural disasters, riots, and Great Depressions. Eventually I'll get there, but for now I prep for what I can as I can. That said, in the event of a "Fall of Rome" situation, I believe that preppers are the ones that will hold the community and culture together long enough to climb out of it. If enough people prep, it can mitigate the depth and duration of a fall.
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Old 09-10-2012, 00:44   #21
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Quote:
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3. Urban thug gangs aren't that good. He overestimates their ability to attack a fortified position while under fire. Preppers do discus raiders from time to time you know.


You know what a fortified position really is?


The place you die during a deliberate attack.



I mean, just look at the stunning success that was the maginot line.



While fortifying your house/property has some value against raiders who have given little though to it, and mostly are striking solely on a whim, if they take even a small amount of time to plan it out, and have a modicum of common sense, your chances are virtually nil to live through the engagement.



Unless you've got a good network of people, and I'm talking 8-15 able bodied shooters, you're not really going to hold off much of anything. And by shooters, I don't mean your wife and kids who you gave a gun to in a pinch. I mean people who know how to fight a weapon.

If the SHTF, you're not handing your kid/wife a PSL/Nagant/whatever rifle you want, and honestly going to see them be an effective shooter. What you're handing them is a death sentence.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:17   #22
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:19   #23
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You know what a fortified position really is?


The place you die during a deliberate attack.



I mean, just look at the stunning success that was the maginot line.



While fortifying your house/property has some value against raiders who have given little though to it, and mostly are striking solely on a whim, if they take even a small amount of time to plan it out, and have a modicum of common sense, your chances are virtually nil to live through the engagement.



Unless you've got a good network of people, and I'm talking 8-15 able bodied shooters, you're not really going to hold off much of anything. And by shooters, I don't mean your wife and kids who you gave a gun to in a pinch. I mean people who know how to fight a weapon.

If the SHTF, you're not handing your kid/wife a PSL/Nagant/whatever rifle you want, and honestly going to see them be an effective shooter. What you're handing them is a death sentence.
Did you read my point #1? You need a group, no question. I call 8-15 a good start. I would really like to have a lot more that that.

I agree (as I said in my above post above,) trying to Lone Wolf it is a non-starter. Why are you busting my balls for agreeing with you?

To your other point, most urban gang members do not have "a modicum of common sense." I see them every day at work. The vast majority are as dumb as a box of rocks.

Dangerous, to be sure, but time and time again they fair poorly when they are out of their element and facing an armed opponent.

And what makes you think my wife doesn't know how to fight?

The Maginot Line was a failure of updating strategic and tactical thinking in the light of what was capable, offensively, with new technology. Thus, we take maneuver warfare for granted now and no modern army is comfortable defending a fixed position with no counter-strike force. Of course, the French didn't seem to learn that particular lesson (re: Dien-Bien-Phu.)

I think part of the necessity having a large enough group is in having the man power to counter attack. Medieval castles had sally-ports, for instance. By our nature, preppers are going to be tied to a location. Even an underground bunker will be given away in a long term Fall by it's cultivated crops. You need enough people to patrol and react to aggression.
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Old 09-10-2012, 01:22   #24
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I feel sorry for the folks living in big cities, as the government can't control gangs now, let alone when SHTF. Groups like the Latin Kings, Black Panthers, and so many others have a LOT of good weapons now, as well as vehicles to expand their activities. And they don't play by any rules! Cities will be hit hard first, but the turmoil will spread out to the suburban, then rural areas.
I discussed this with a former Sheriff some years ago, and he stated flat out that we in the rural areas had better be ready to handle problems ourselves. There is just not enough manpower to cover the distances in rural areas; 22 miles from my house to the Sheriff's office. I have discussed this with some of my "neighbors" - a mile either direction. Because we live on high ground, teams of guys with their deer rifles and a few semi-autos will have posts at roads approaching our area, with others on ready stand-by. Just about everyone has radios for communication and re-supply. I would hope that we will not have a situation as portrayed in "Alas Babylon" or "One Second After", but it's better to hope for the best while preparing for the worst.
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Old 09-10-2012, 03:49   #25
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I gave guys like that ZERO credibility!
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