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Old 07-20-2011, 21:27   #1
G29Reload
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Evasive Action: Prep up now for this winter

I just saw this over at Frugal Squirrels and I tend to agree between various flooding, droughts, fire, storms, etc, PLUS high fuel prices. Ripple effect on cattle since they are fed on grain, herds will shorten and drive meat prices up. It seems you can't ever find bacon under $4 a lb, and $5 for 5lbs of potatoes!
Used to be less than half that, wasnt it?

Pasta stores well and you know you'll need more of that in winter, instead of paying more than 1 or even 2 bucks a lb, buy it now for what gets you thru the winter. Rice too, in case that inflates:

There are already threads devoted to potential shortages/rising prices of wheat and pasta due to this years flooding in the Great Plains, specifically ND. What many don't realize is that ND is also the nations leading producers of dry beans ( 39 % of the national total), and honey, the Red River Valley is rich in sugar beet production, and the have a significant potato production also. MN is the nations largest producer of oats ( although I don't know how the weather has affected them this year- MN squirrels have any input?).

Combined with the drought of the south, the fires of the west, and the tornadoes everywhere, I would expect either a shortage or significant price increase not only in staples like wheat, flour, beans, and sugar, but also vegetables and fruits, along with potatoes. I wouldn't be surprised if rice also rises as people start utilizing alternatives to wheat based products.

I'd suspect meat prices may temporarily drop as producers thin herds due to feed prices/shortages, but then to climb right back up and over the next season, as there will be less stock breeding.
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Old 07-20-2011, 21:37   #2
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Tornadoes?? Really??

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Old 07-20-2011, 22:15   #3
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Wait for the big California earthquake... how that will hit our already embattled state with an impossible budget....
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Old 07-21-2011, 18:12   #4
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Ironically, if ND wanted to help its own out.....the government could just buy some excess and give it to their populace? No, I'm not one for a nanny state--but ND knows how to run their business.

One of only two states in the country with a budget surplus...yes surplus of almost $1 billion dollars?

Didn't they give back $400 million to its residents last year?

My sister used to live in Moorhead, MN (just moved her last weekend) right across from Fargo, ND and was so sick and tired of hearing about how well ND was doing and how close MN is to failing. She literally can't sell her house because everyone wants to live in Fargo.

Flooding or not-I would move to ND tomorrow if I could dump my house.
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Old 07-21-2011, 18:23   #5
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I am not a fan of giving back money because of the inefficiency inherent in the system. The return is about 37 cents on the dollar with aol the costs involved with the processing and mailing.

Besides, the payment schedule is backwards with payments phasing out the more you make. Ummm... Those are the ones who paid more in the first place! The lower brackets sometimes pay little to no taxes but get the whole amount. That is nothing but redistribution of wealth.

Instead, just give a tax holiday. No extra work for the bureaucrats and it's fair to everyone.
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Old 07-21-2011, 18:35   #6
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Ok, obviously the main point I was trying to make was lost on all you brain surgeons and rocket scientists, so, never mind.

All is well. Going to give away all my preps and do drugs and act like a hippie and maybe even drink some koolaid and watch an obama speech or something. You should do it too.


Everything is KOOOL

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Old 07-21-2011, 19:22   #7
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Not everything is lost on everybody. Rising prices are happening now, have been so for the past couple years, and I don't see anything coming that's likely to reverse that in the near future.

Fwiw, this week for me included bag/bucket/O2-packet of another 660 lbs of staples; I just don't see anything on the political horizon that makes me think it's a bad investment. Then again, I've been wrong before (2004 AWB sunset was one big example I was wrong on), and would not mind at all being wrong again.

Much like paying my life & hospitalization insurance - hope to not need either one anytime soon, but my family's well-being is too important for me to gamble on it.
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Old 07-21-2011, 20:10   #8
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660 lbs? I guess if you got a family. I'm single so I 'm thinking and planning for one.

How many years endurance do you think you have?
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Old 07-21-2011, 20:49   #9
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Let me say this again....there will be no shortages of food with grain and meat selling at record high prices. Just in case any of you didn't take econ 101....
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Old 07-21-2011, 21:53   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
Let me say this again....there will be no shortages of food with grain and meat selling at record high prices. Just in case any of you didn't take econ 101....

On the flipside..

..then there are rising processing costs, transportation costs, debt service/labor costs/etc of the supply chain, TAXATION, ..

...that are also factors in supply, demand & ultimately consumer pricing & availability!


As far as 'economy 101'....demand being a constant & supply limited to production capacity of the supply chain..

..a commodity shortage will cause the pricing to go up to "record high prices"..

..& a commodity glut will likewise cause the pricing to fall!

Record high prices will give incentive to produce as much as possible..

..but if total output is limited by major disaster then availability will be curtailed as well.

Did you attend outcome based Obamanomics in college??


If the cost of production & transportation is more than the consumer will pay..

..it would not be the 1st time large quantities of commodities were left to rot.




In a nation such as ours that has developed large-scale farming & ranching efficiency into a fine art..

..shouldn't we have larger quantities of product for a given price..??

..instead of the decreasing quantities and/or smaller containers for a given price..

..a disturbing trend I & others have been following for years!



My solution to help mitigate the inflationary trend..

..is to get closer to the source (farmer/rancher), eat less processed food & buy in bulk!

As our debt ravaged federal government becomes more & more predatory..

..steps like mine may no longer be optional..

..as they tend to be the norm in other inflation ravaged countries...IMO!
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Old 07-21-2011, 21:59   #11
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Originally Posted by LongGun1 View Post
On the flipside..

..then there are rising processing costs, transportation costs, debt service/labor costs/etc of the supply chain, TAXATION, ..

...that are also factors in supply, demand & ultimately consumer pricing!


If what you stated were 100% correct..

..shouldn't we have larger quantities of product for a given price..??

..instead of the decreasing quantities and/or smaller containers for a given price..

..a disturbing trend I & others have been following for years!
You will see a record grain harvest this year. Every farmer I know has tilled up every inch of land he has and planted corn and beans. The reason supplies have gone down over the past few years is because prices were low. Now that prices have risen supply will follow.
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Old 07-21-2011, 22:56   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LongGun1 View Post
On the flipside..

..then there are rising processing costs, transportation costs, debt service/labor costs/etc of the supply chain, TAXATION, ..

...that are also factors in supply, demand & ultimately consumer pricing & availability!


As far as 'economy 101'....demand being a constant & supply limited to production capacity of the supply chain..

..a commodity shortage will cause the pricing to go up to "record high prices"..

..& a commodity glut will likewise cause the pricing to fall!

Record high prices will give incentive to produce as much as possible..

..but if total output is limited by major disaster then availability will be curtailed as well.

Did you attend outcome based Obamanomics in college??


If the cost of production & transportation is more than the consumer will pay..

..it would not be the 1st time large quantities of commodities were left to rot.




In a nation such as ours that has developed large-scale farming & ranching efficiency into a fine art..

..shouldn't we have larger quantities of product for a given price..??

..instead of the decreasing quantities and/or smaller containers for a given price..

..a disturbing trend I & others have been following for years!



My solution to help mitigate the inflationary trend..

..is to get closer to the source (farmer/rancher), eat less processed food & buy in bulk!

As our debt ravaged federal government becomes more & more predatory..

..steps like mine may no longer be optional..

..as they tend to be the norm in other inflation ravaged countries...IMO!
Shortages would be short lived (good reason to have a years food). If prices are high here due to a domestic weather disaster, imports will increase. We will still have relatively more money to by rice and grains than countries that the average income is less than $100 per year per person.

This of course in relatively normal food production cycles. This not in the case of an asteroid strike or a Yellowstone super volcanoe eruption that clouds the whole earth.

It does not hurt to buy ahead on non-perishables if you have the money and the space.
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Old 07-21-2011, 23:23   #13
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Let me say this again....there will be no shortages of food with grain and meat selling at record high prices. Just in case any of you didn't take econ 101....
to a point, theres only so much you can avoid eating.

And if sales stay low from the higher prices, the drop in demand may cause them to produce less, at which point pent up demand could later really spike things.
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Old 07-22-2011, 03:04   #14
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Ok, obviously the main point I was trying to make was lost on all you brain surgeons and rocket scientists, so, never mind.

All is well. Going to give away all my preps and do drugs and act like a hippie and maybe even drink some koolaid and watch an obama speech or something. You should do it too.


Everything is KOOOL
Not everyone here is dense. Some folks don't follow the national news. Their lives don't extend past the little bubble they live in.
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Old 07-22-2011, 06:10   #15
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I wouldn't get too wound up, chief. Slow and steady wins the race.
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Old 07-22-2011, 06:26   #16
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to a point, theres only so much you can avoid eating.

And if sales stay low from the higher prices, the drop in demand may cause them to produce less, at which point pent up demand could later really spike things.
The truth is the price of agricultural commodities is a relatively insignificant driver of consumer food prices. The amount of corn in a box of cereal or wheat in a loaf of bread represents about 10-15% of the total cost of producing that product. Most of the cost is labor, transportation, marketing, advertising, packaging, and distribution. I didn't say commodities prices play no role. But simply that retail food prices are more affected by other factors.

If you google up "2011 US Grain harvest" you will find a host of USDA and other websites and you will see that I didn't pull what I posted out of my butt.

Demand remains strong for US Grain partly because the falling dollar makes it cheaper for foreigners to buy our grain. This keeps prices high in spite of surging production. It also doesn't help that the US continues to subsidize the ethanol industry which buys a significant portion of our corn crop and this artificially inflates demand and distorts the market. Lastly, you can't discount the fact that the amount of money that has surged into the commodities markets since 2007 has driven prices higher which has nothing to do with demand. Like all bubbles, this too shall pass.

Producers (farmers) ALWAYS react to higher prices with more production. Its as certain as the sun coming up tomorrow. When supplies finally surpass demand and some of the other factors I listed above prices will tumble. Again, this is predictable. There will be no shortages. You need to worry about shortages when prices get so low it drives people out of business...
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Old 07-22-2011, 06:53   #17
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Quote:
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...there will be no shortages of food with grain and meat selling at record high prices. Just in case any of you didn't take econ 101....
Distilled version to me is simply this - it's those "record high prices" that you rightly point out that concern a fair number of us; not necessarily "shortages" or true 'absence of supply'. There's no guarantee that the prices won't be even higher a year (or whatever time frame) from now. No guarantee that they will either, but looking at the movement trends & buying power of the dollar, I'm not willing to gamble on 'lower'.

Some of us did take econ 101 and more; but the fact is, so did Obama & his compadres who are pushing us down this road - worth considering. Taking classes is a good thing, but doesn't inherently make a person smarter.

Some of us remember the inflation/unemployment/gas-rationing of the 70's, and some of us have parents who went thru the depression & ww2 and grew up realizing that we as americans aren't immune to the things that are currently affecting numerous other countries.
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Old 07-22-2011, 07:00   #18
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Current high grain prices are in part due to crop problems in China and Russia.

Also, emerging markets are eating more protein - chicken and beef - that will over the long term up the prices on those.
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Old 07-22-2011, 08:30   #19
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660 lbs? I guess if you got a family. I'm single so I 'm thinking and planning for one.
It may sound like a lot, but it's really only about a couple months' worth for a family of four, and only the staples at that; and fact is, I tend in my real-long-term preps like this to include extended family rather than just my own wife & kids, which puts this 660lbs really at less than a month in actual application. Also, this batch was just bulk components of rice, beans & popcorn (for grinding into meal for cornbread, etc) for the most basic of foods, so it doesn't include other things needed on a daily basis; even simple things like seasonings, sauces, vegetables, coffee, whatever.

And yes, I'm having my coffee until the world completely explodes from under me.


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How many years endurance do you think you have?
That's between me & my wife, young man; stay out of my sex life. That said, ever hear that song - "I ain't as good as I once was, but I'm as good once as I ever was"...?
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Old 07-22-2011, 18:46   #20
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Bottom line...with everything that's going on in the world (natural disasters, war, famine, political agendas) it's not a bad idea to stock up on pasta, rice, and other long term items. You won't be sorry.
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