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Old 11-15-2012, 17:09   #1
cowboy1964
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Wow, Apple stock is taking a royal drubbing

Talk about panic selling. Their PE is down to under 12! For comparison, Google's is still over 20 and Facebook's is 206! Now which do you think is the better long term outlook: Apple or Facebook? Seriously. Oh yeah, and Apple is now paying 2% dividends.

I'm waiting for this free fall to bottom out and I'm jumping in.

Last edited by cowboy1964; 11-15-2012 at 17:10..
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Old 11-15-2012, 17:35   #2
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Originally Posted by cowboy1964 View Post
Talk about panic selling. Their PE is down to under 12! For comparison, Google's is still over 20 and Facebook's is 206! Now which do you think is the better long term outlook: Apple or Facebook? Seriously. Oh yeah, and Apple is now paying 2% dividends.

I'm waiting for this free fall to bottom out and I'm jumping in.
The problem is picking the bottom. Why not DCA some money into the stock?
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Old 11-15-2012, 18:07   #3
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Could be time to buy for sure. As long as you think earnings will still grow at a decent pace with Jonnie(Sp) leading the vision, you are good to go.
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Old 11-15-2012, 18:11   #4
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Great time to buy!! Stock is going down. Don't buy at the top. Apple is awesome and will always go up.

What? Stocks are in a bubble? Treasuries and in a bubble? Buy gold? What? But gold is near its all time high.
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Old 11-15-2012, 18:33   #5
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Now would be a good time to buy, unless you think it will go down even further before it goes back up. Just look and find out if their stock went up when the iPhone 5 came out. If it did, it's likely it will go up again when the iPhone 6 comes out.
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Old 11-15-2012, 18:54   #6
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I think it is and has been overpriced for a while. An I am a Apple nerd. This has been a long time coming IMO. They make world class stuff and are innovators unlike any others but not to the degree the stock is priced now IMO.
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Old 11-15-2012, 18:59   #7
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. Apple is awesome and will always go up.
.

Never say always.
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Old 11-15-2012, 18:59   #8
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I've moved 75% of my retirement account through my employer to a stable value account (the rest is in S&P 500) till the first of the year. IMHO, it's gonna happen, but hedged my bet if it didn't.
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Old 11-15-2012, 19:21   #9
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Taking a look at the Dow and is it my imagination or did the Dow drop nearly 600 points since obama's re-election?
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Old 11-15-2012, 19:25   #10
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I think it is and has been overpriced for a while. An I am a Apple nerd. This has been a long time coming IMO. They make world class stuff and are innovators unlike any others but not to the degree the stock is priced now IMO.
If memory serves Apple has ~900,000,000 shares outstanding. And by now maybe $150,000,000,000 in cash and near cash in the bank - mostly overseas I might add. The company by any sane metric is having one of the best years of any big company ever. I think a number of big players have equity positions in Apple and they are talking the stock down as hard as they can. Why? Because these guys love to own a stock and short it when the winds blow against a good stock. So they make money as it tanks. And they make money as the stock improves later on. I've done this myself in a tiny way.


I'm close to buying some more.

It'll be interesting to see what happens.
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Old 11-15-2012, 19:28   #11
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Taking a look at the Dow and is it my imagination or did the Dow drop nearly 600 points since obama's re-election?
From memory about 550.
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Old 11-15-2012, 19:31   #12
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If memory serves Apple has ~900,000,000 shares outstanding. And by now maybe $150,000,000,000 in cash and near cash in the bank - mostly overseas I might add. The company by any sane metric is having one of the best years of any big company ever. I think a number of big players have equity positions in Apple and they are talking the stock down as hard as they can. Why? Because these guys love to own a stock and short it when the winds blow against a good stock. So they make money as it tanks. And they make money as the stock improves later on. I've done this myself in a tiny way.


I'm close to buying some more.

It'll be interesting to see what happens.
True enough.

Apple came out of nowhere (generally speaking) with the iPod, then the iPhone and then the iPad. They rocketed to pop culture popularity and the stock followed suit. I just don't think it has the staying power to remain as high as it has been.

As I said I have a been a Apple geek since 1986 when I fired up my Apple IIc, I wish them continued success but just not sure they can maintain this rocket climb to the top.
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Old 11-15-2012, 20:10   #13
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Apple has had lots of major stock drops on its way to $700 over the years.
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Old 11-15-2012, 20:12   #14
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I would do a call spread VS buying AAPL

Buy 10 of the January 19 call options with a strike price of $550 for $18.70 (each 1 = 100 shares of stock) so that costs you $18,700

Sell 10 of the January 19 calls with a strike price of $575 for $11.10 - you collect $11,100.

Net you are out $7,600 - break even is AAPL at $558.

Most you can make is $25K less the $7,600 = $17,600 - but your loss is capped at $7,600.

You pay $60 - $100 in commissions -

Want to reduce the cost - sell a put spread -

Sell 10 of the January 19 puts with a strike price of $500 - collect $17,450

Buy 10 of the January 19 puts - take your pick on how much risk you want - I would buy the $485 strike at $12.63 - pay $12,630

Net you collect about $4,800 (before commission of another $60)

If Apple closes above $500 you keep the $4,800 - your max loss on the put spread would be $15,000 - the $4,850 you collected or about $10K.

In total these trades have a max gain of ~~$22K if AAPL closes above $575

Max loss is ~~ $17,500 if AAPL closes below $485.

Better check my math - because I didn't.

BTW - reason I picked the January 19 date is because AAPL reports earnings on January 22 - I want to be out of this trade before they report. If you like risk and think AAPL will blow earnings away - you could look at the February 16 options.

Last edited by Z71bill; 11-15-2012 at 20:19..
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Old 11-19-2012, 14:58   #15
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Looks like it has bottomed. Up over 7% today. I'm not the only one who says the selloff was ridiculously overdone:

http://wallstreetpit.com/97876-apple...y-now-analyst/

Actually, I love these pullbacks. Terrific buying oppurtunities.

Last edited by cowboy1964; 11-19-2012 at 15:03..
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Old 02-28-2013, 16:39   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Z71bill View Post
I would do a call spread VS buying AAPL

Buy 10 of the January 19 call options with a strike price of $550 for $18.70 (each 1 = 100 shares of stock) so that costs you $18,700

Sell 10 of the January 19 calls with a strike price of $575 for $11.10 - you collect $11,100.

Net you are out $7,600 - break even is AAPL at $558.

Most you can make is $25K less the $7,600 = $17,600 - but your loss is capped at $7,600.

You pay $60 - $100 in commissions -

Want to reduce the cost - sell a put spread -

Sell 10 of the January 19 puts with a strike price of $500 - collect $17,450

Buy 10 of the January 19 puts - take your pick on how much risk you want - I would buy the $485 strike at $12.63 - pay $12,630

Net you collect about $4,800 (before commission of another $60)

If Apple closes above $500 you keep the $4,800 - your max loss on the put spread would be $15,000 - the $4,850 you collected or about $10K.

In total these trades have a max gain of ~~$22K if AAPL closes above $575

Max loss is ~~ $17,500 if AAPL closes below $485.

Better check my math - because I didn't.

BTW - reason I picked the January 19 date is because AAPL reports earnings on January 22 - I want to be out of this trade before they report. If you like risk and think AAPL will blow earnings away - you could look at the February 16 options.
So, what were the final numbers for the loss? How far did you have to spread and how deep did you get hammered with your AAPL play?

AAPL is trading around $441.

Yep, the stock market is amazing. AAPL from $700 to $441 in about six months.

But gold is so dangerous to own. At least that is what many here have told me.
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Old 02-28-2013, 16:40   #17
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Looks like it has bottomed. Up over 7% today. I'm not the only one who says the selloff was ridiculously overdone:


Actually, I love these pullbacks. Terrific buying oppurtunities.
Better keep buying then. AAPL has pulled all the way back to $441. Awesome!!!
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Old 02-28-2013, 16:43   #18
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Apple may jump if the new Steve Jobs movie hits with people.


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Old 02-28-2013, 16:45   #19
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Apple is losing market share because their products are substantially more expensive and the competition has gotten better.

The stock price is following accordingly.
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Old 02-28-2013, 16:57   #20
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Apple is losing market share because their products are substantially more expensive and the competition has gotten better.

The stock price is following accordingly.
Apple is again the largest smartphone maker right now according this report.

http://marketingland.com/report-appl...er-in-us-32283

They also have best selling smartphone, the iPhone 5 and the 2nd best selling smartphone the iPhone 4S according to this article.

http://www.mactrast.com/2013/02/ipho...ad-in-q4-2012/

Also, they had their best ever quarter in both sales and profit last quarter.
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Old 02-28-2013, 16:58   #21
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Apple needs to revolutionize television like it did with music. We need a slick version of IOS running on a television and deals with cable companies or satellite companies to offer television with out set top boxes.

The television experience hasn't change in 25years. Imagine seamless integration with your media library, live content, on demand content and social media without it being piece mealed together.

Apple needs to do what it did with the MP3 player to the television.

The biggest road block is the cable/satellite service providers.
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Old 02-28-2013, 17:00   #22
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Apple needs to revolutionize television like it did with music. We need a slick version of IOS running on a television and deals with cable companies or satellite companies to offer television with out set top boxes.

The television experience hasn't change in 25years. Imagine seamless integration with your media library, live content, on demand content and social media without it being piece mealed together.

Apple needs to do what it did with the MP3 player to the television.

The biggest road block is the cable/satellite service providers.
Steve told his biographer he cracked it. I have to think its forthcoming.
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Old 02-28-2013, 17:26   #23
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Apple is doing just fine. Having been an Apple user since the 80s the company is a so much more visible and viable today than ever before. They will continue to innovate and grow.
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Old 02-28-2013, 17:29   #24
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Steve told his biographer he cracked it. I have to think its forthcoming.
Imagine a decent processor/gpu running a televsion with integrated storage. Putting a leaned down Mac mini within a slim led tv would revolutionize tv/video content if the content owners and service providers could work together.

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Old 02-28-2013, 21:11   #25
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Taking a look at the Dow and is it my imagination or did the Dow drop nearly 600 points since obama's re-election?
December 31, 2012 13104.14
January 31, 2013 13860.58
February 28, 2013 14054.49

I think it is your imagination.
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