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Old 02-24-2013, 13:16   #1
sandyc
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SHTF time factor ?

I suppose this has been talked about before, apparently I missed it. Yesterday evening I was talking to a retired economics prof I know and he said pay attention to the next several months, something has to pop big time. Like most teachers he leans more toward the liberal side of things, but he did admit that the government is headed in the wrong direction and entitlements are way out of hand. Can't argue with that.

My question: When things start to unravel, will it be fast or slow? I personally think it would take several months for things to really get bad, but that's me. What say you? Thanks
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Old 02-24-2013, 13:47   #2
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I think it would start out slow and then potentially escalate quickly as people panic and get out of control. The major cities would feel the effects much quicker than rural America.
I'm not convinced it's actually going to happen, but then again, NEVER have I been so uncertain about the future of this country. If the SHTF, don't blame me. I didn't vote THEM in!
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Old 02-24-2013, 13:50   #3
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use this as a test tube viewpoint. remember that cruise ship that crapped out in the gulf of mexico?

yeah...72 hours, and society becomes "savages"
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Old 02-24-2013, 14:24   #4
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When you place a million or more people into a city and they are unable to feed themselves from their local areas, disrupt the trucks carrying food and you have chaos in less than 72 hours!
There are 1000 things that could disrupt the trucking industry, stop these trucks from rolling, then its only a matter of time before it happens.
3 minutes without air, 3 days without water, 30 days without food and many/most will die!
The person who wrote, we're only 9 meals away from chaos had it right.
Pay attention to the trucks.
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Old 02-24-2013, 17:55   #5
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Based on life experiences.....

slow
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lighting fast.
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Old 02-24-2013, 19:07   #6
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Originally Posted by sandyc View Post
I suppose this has been talked about before, apparently I missed it. Yesterday evening I was talking to a retired economics prof I know and he said pay attention to the next several months, something has to pop big time. Like most teachers he leans more toward the liberal side of things, but he did admit that the government is headed in the wrong direction and entitlements are way out of hand. Can't argue with that.

My question: When things start to unravel, will it be fast or slow? I personally think it would take several months for things to really get bad, but that's me. What say you? Thanks
Did he give any specifics as to what to watch for?

- Sequester
- Italian Elections
- Spain?
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Old 02-24-2013, 20:32   #7
sandyc
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMason View Post
Did he give any specifics as to what to watch for?

- Sequester
- Italian Elections
- Spain?
When our money is worthless and we have no more credit. This is what he thinks will trigger some sort of collapse. When that comes about, who knows, hopefully not anytime soon. By the way, this guy is no kind of prepper, he's 81 yrs old.
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Old 02-24-2013, 20:40   #8
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There is a pattern established that when fuel goes over 3.80 that economic activity (by consumers) falls off dramatically............we are there again, plus we have these new taxes added on this time. It should be a very ugly year.
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Old 02-24-2013, 21:06   #9
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Originally Posted by sandyc View Post
When our money is worthless and we have no more credit. This is what he thinks will trigger some sort of collapse. When that comes about, who knows, hopefully not anytime soon. By the way, this guy is no kind of prepper, he's 81 yrs old.
That is a way off. Look at Europe. They instituted a VAT in the 70s that postponed their problems. The USA will do that in about 7 years.

Slow decline - like the UK is our future.
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Old 02-24-2013, 19:59   #10
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Unless the whole government collapse, it's just a slow death which may drag on for years. Read FerFAL's blog about Argentina.

Things won't go into chaos immediately unless it's some sort of natural disaster or wide spread disease.
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Old 02-24-2013, 20:30   #11
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A couple of things have happened lately that seem noteworthy:
Zero gets up on national tv and makes a statement to the effect that........the United States must continue to pay its bills. Never has a president ever gotten up and made such a statement and it was hardly noticed.

The IRS in the past few years has been able to give an exact date for refunds............not this year, it started out as 21 days, now it just says it is being processed.
Sounds like our government is showing signs of breaking down. Or maybe just the effect of four plus years of an imbecile president.
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Old 02-24-2013, 20:28   #12
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The Mayan thing is over so I guess it's on to the next imminent SHTF/TEOTWAWKI.
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Old 02-24-2013, 21:13   #13
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The global economy was within hours of collapsing with the subprime mortgage failure when the US government acted.


You received about as much warning as the Russian folks with the recent meteor.


Keep that in mind. From an engineering standpoint, history as shown time and time again lengthy warnings unheeded leading to an exponentially fast failure mode.

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Old 02-24-2013, 21:14   #14
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. . . . .
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Old 02-24-2013, 21:38   #15
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I think it is going to be slow with many peaked chaos moments. Like how guns and ammo got scarce - except with more things more often. Some Food, gas, other food, ammo, Emergency services, riot here, gas shortage again, inflation, all food, etc...

Lot's of chaos moments in one area or another on the way down. And I really think down is gonna happen. But slow. And painful.
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Old 02-24-2013, 21:55   #16
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I also have been giving this some thinking, But there is just too many things that can happen to effect all bad and good possiblities.

On the good side some say a new trade agreement coming soon with the US and EU would be a very large boost to all econamies. A new technology could come online like computers did a while back to improve economic activity.

On the bad side the 3rd currency war could start (some have said it has already ) and China , Russia , US go crazy with the devaluation and way of Valuating their currencies causing severe interuptions of capital flow thus causing a very bad business enviroment. Thus depression, inflation, interuption of goods , food ect.

. Then the havoc of many derivatives being honored and or not honored. Kind of like an insurance policy not being paid thus pension funds and other investors , banks, govts, losing big time and having to have to actually realize the loss in the accounting sence, not covering it up any more.

Then lets not forget China, Russia, doing all they can to deal what they think is a death blow to us in the financial markets, selling our debt fast and furious without worry of their loss as they have increased their gold reserves to a level the increase in gold price as we go down the drain will make them a power player in the new money GOLD.

Mix in the Dollar losing world reserve status . And we will be in a world of hurting.

But after all this Worry,,,,, The US is still the most preffered place / country to live and be educated in. Parents all over the world want their kids to be able to come here.

I also personally think / wonder if there is a way to bring order back to this mess via a internationaly agreed reset of the financial system and I think there really is as long as China and Russia "s leaders are convinced they will personally profit from the agreeded reset and are convinced to chose to become billionaires vs warlords.

The US has paid off govt leaders before, im sure the western powers are trying to play this card. They could choose to live like kings enjoying all the world has to offer or try to take the whole ball of wax and risk death or isolation like north korean leader. Or they could end up as KING of The World if they win the total game with much bloodletting on all sides.

But what do i know.....ps i forgot to answer the question. I feel it could go any way. Sloooooowwwww. Or crash very fast ... I just rather not roll the dice....
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Old 02-25-2013, 00:43   #17
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The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P are still climbing yet so is unemployment. The bonds are propping up the economy, and when the bond bubble bursts, it will be ugly. I've read up to a 90% correction in the US economy. Watch the precious metal prices. When they go crazy one way or the other, behold the next days.
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Old 02-25-2013, 05:00   #18
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We can practically predict the future by listening to the latest denials by the idiot Bernanke...........whatever he is denying this week/month is exactly what will happen.

This thing is well under way, it won't be a straight line deterioration, but a choppy ride.........with a large scale war coming our way.
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Old 03-01-2013, 23:10   #19
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We can practically predict the future
I hate to break it to you, but I've been following this sub forum since 2005, and this is one thing that we cannot do. At least not successfully and certainly not reliably.

That has been shown time and time again.
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Old 03-02-2013, 11:57   #20
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I hate to break it to you, but I've been following this sub forum since 2005, and this is one thing that we cannot do. At least not successfully and certainly not reliably.

That has been shown time and time again.
You didn't get it............... "We can practically predict the future by listening to the latest denials by the idiot Bernanke...........whatever he is denying (will happen) this week/month is exactly what will happen."
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