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Old 02-02-2013, 11:02   #110
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Kansas
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Originally Posted by Gills63 View Post
A possible deer equation, which I know could be supplemented with other animals. 12K people with an average family size of 4. So 3000 families in a give narea. 1 deer every other week per family. That's 3000x 26. Thats 78,000 deer a year per 12k people.
Originally Posted by Gills63 View Post
Now there are some areas with low enough population densities and enough animal diversity to sustain the folks that live there ( like Country's area). But a lot of places can't. I live in the midwest. The only large mammal that is widespread in my state is whitetail deer and at numbers any where close to what I mentioned, those deer aren't going to last. Guess where we are headed next?
That would mean that all 12K people would have to survive the whole year. Not likely. If it's gone bad, people will start dying within days, weeks. A lot of people die every day, presently.

It also assumes a near-100% success rate for hunters.

Here's some other numbers from the 2011 KS Deer Hunting Season

..."reports that about 98,000 deer were killed in Kansas last year by all deer hunters, resident (82,500) and non-resident (15,300)." This does not inlcude poached deer, or deer hit by vehicles, both categories carry thier own large numbers.

..."there are about 116,000 total deer hunters. This shows that around 84% of deer hunters took the deer they bought permits for. Some of these hunters in the 16% that didn't fill their tags could be acconted for for a variety of reasons: poached instead of filling tags, first year (and/or inadequate skill), got too busy, couldn't find a place to legally hunt, etc. However, of those 16%, many were skilled hunters who hunt year round, and have, for years.

Here's another article on the same issues:

"With a healthy statewide herd of over 500,000 animals, and hunters harvesting only 92,000 during 2010, 2011 is shaping up nicely. There was a drought in 2011 that hurt population, but 2012 was a good year, for them.

Here's an interesting chart showing the success rates of hunters in more than one area, from the same article:
Survival/Preparedness Forum

The average is nowhere near 100% with mostly skilled hunters in the best deer hunting places in the US. I doubt many preppers will do better than the average hunter who lives in these areas.

Then, you have to factor in those who will get a kill, but starve anyway or kill themselves with improper food prep or not be able to identify when the game killed was not healthy and eat something they should have left or taint their meat by improper field dressing/cleaning/processing.

Originally Posted by Gills63 View Post
And it would be folly to assume that everyone in the "populated" states are weak city folk.
I never assumed, or said that. However, the people in the populated areas will have to get out of them. Many won't survive this. Once the roads out of town are blocked off, most people don't have means to get out of the city on foot.

For example, if you're in downtown Kansas City when it goes bad, and there is no power anywhere in the metro area, your chances of getting out in a vehicle, after the event, are next to none. Find an airport and steal a plane, or you're on foot, bicycle, or moped. It's more than 30 miles of densely populated urban areas full of 2 million panicking people. No matter how badass you are, you need some luck, too.

Then, after you get out of the city, you are behind the tens of thousands who were closer to getting out when the big bad went down. That's why I said draw circles around those sized cities.

I doubt most make it out, alive, during the first wave. Those who will do best, will stay home. That works, if you're close to home. In the middle of the day on a non-holiday Tuesday, most people, from larger cities, aren't home, or realitively close.

Therefore, I maintain that it is a fantasy for most of the urban (and urban minded in the country), but not so much for those who won't be effected by mass population. How many people is that? Not enough to lump "living of the land" as automatically a "fantasy prepper". At most, those who make such a claim shoud cue a small red flag that can be put down with simple, honest explanation of that person's current skills.
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