View Single Post
Old 10-24-2012, 08:56   #104
M 7
Senior Member
 
M 7's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 1,101
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardB View Post
I don't know that the big hole, small hole theory has much to do with reality.

Marshal & Sanow developed data which depicts 9mm FMJ and 45ACP FMJ as roughly comparable in stopping power (I don't sweat the small % of difference). Their numbers shattered the balloons of others and the war was on.
I am not sure that any valid conclusion(s) can be drawn from the Marshall and Sanow data due to the fact that the data appears to have been intentionally manipulated.

http://www.firearmstactical.com/mars...l-analysis.htm

The statistical analysis (in the link above) is pretty damning unless one is willing to believe that a one in three trillion chance is a good bet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardB View Post
Decades later another cop, Greg Ellifritz, has published his own numbers, using different criteria and he also finds the 45 and 9mm Parabellum are not that far apart. Ellifritz's bottom line is: For serious fighting use a rifle or shotgun.

http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/printable/node/7866

Excerpts of Ellifritz's paper.

9mm Luger
# of people shot - 456
# of hits - 1121
% of hits that were fatal - 24%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 2.45
% of people who were not incapacitated - 13%
One-shot-stop % - 34%
Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 74%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 47%

45 ACP
# of people shot - 209
# of hits - 436
% of hits that were fatal - 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation - 2.08
% of people who were not incapacitated - 14%
One-shot-stop % - 39%
Accuracy (head and torso hits) - 85%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit) - 51%

Based on this study one should be prepared to need more than one round to neutralize a serious threat.
While the study done by Ellifritz seems to be seriously flawed, it appears for the time being, that his data was not manipulated. It would've been nice to see a more detailed break-down of his data like the brand, type (JHP or FMJ) and weight of the ammo involved, separate categories for "head" and "torso" shots, etc.

Some of his conclusions are a little goofy, but to his credit he seems to have offered an honest attempt at analyzing the data he collected.
__________________
For those who CCW:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 signatures.

Last edited by M 7; 10-24-2012 at 09:03..
M 7 is offline   Reply With Quote