For those of you who weren't around or were too young to remember, what is happening now is what happened in the 1980 election.
Carter beat Ford in 1976 primarily because Ford was named by Nixon to succeed him when he resigned. Ford pardoned Nixon (and draft dodgers who went to Canada). People were tired of the Nixon years and did not trust Republicans after Watergate.
Carter promised to change government. Kind of that hope and change thing. Unfortunately for Carter, his administration didn't do much during the recession of that time. He blamed everything on Ford and Nixon. He was weak on the economy and on foreign policy. Oh, yeah there was that Iran hostage thing that he did little about.
Reagan was vilified as "just an actor" everything he said and did was criticized by the media and even other republicans. He was "opportunist, liar, RINO. He was criticized for his stand on gun control as governor, etc, etc." Yet he continued to gain support throughout the fall. As much as the media and democrats wanted to believe in Jimmy Carter, they couldn't change the fact that Carter was a bad president. Many democrats switched their votes, the so called "Reagan democrats".
I remember watching the news on the night of the 1980 election (we only had CBS, NBC and ABC back then, no cable, no internet). Dan Rather was practically in tears when the numbers started coming in for Reagan.
Reagan came in and we had 8 years of prosperity, actually the best years that I can remember. He had his faults and did some questionable things but he turned the country around.
Obama came in because people were tired of Bush's administration. They were tired of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. They were tired of the bad economy.
Obama's policies (whatever they may be) have failed. People are tired of the talk. I know many democrats who will not vote against him, but won't vote this time at all. Nearly everybody I know who voted for Obama last time is switching this time to someone else, usually Romney.
I know lots of libertarians who are holding their noses this time and voting for Romney cause they think another 4 years of Obama would be dangerous.
If I am not mistaken, Reagan's numbers at this point were worse than Romney's are now so I tend to think that Romney is going to win.
"It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men. " -- Samuel Adams