Originally Posted by mingaa
Looks like Obama to me at this point. His lead (at this point) is larger than any previous winning candidate. If he killed a kitten during the first debate things would tighten up a bit.
The problem with the polls is they rank up Democrat vs Republican by the the amount that voted in the last presidential election, so these polls are going to be skewed high for the Democrats anyway.
In 2008, you had a lot of people hating Bush, the first Black Presidential candidate with the Democrats, and a real lackluster Republican candidate in McCain.
No one in the polling community has taken into account the 2010 election and the surge of Republican voters.
I think Obama slim lead is washed away if you take into account those two factors.
I also think Obama has lost a lot of his original 2008 voters, especially in the Hispanic, Jewish, and the young to middle age White community.
At the end of the day the electorial college wins the election. Here is Obama vs McCain in 2008. I can tell you now, Obama is going to loss some big states vs Romney. Romney will pull some of New England away from Obama. Also look what happened to with the Scott Walker election in Wisconsin. If Obama losses his grasp on Florida, PA, NJ or Ohio, he will lose the White House.