Yea I read about the polls all the time and hear the naysayers saying Romney can't win, but then I think about it and in my mind it seems almost impossible that Obama will be re-elected.
For one, I find it hard to believe anyone who voted for McCain will now be voting for Obama, so give Romney 99% of those votes. I find it hard to believe that at least 5 to 10 out of 100 2008 Obama voters won't switch over to Romney. I find it hard to believe that Democratic turnout will be anywhere near 2008 levels when so many people were excited about Obama. I find it hard to believe that the Anti-Obama vote won't turn out in record levels. I find it hard to believe that the youth vote will turn out for Obama like it did in 2008. I find it hard to believe that the black, Jewish, Union and Independent voters will turn out and vote for Obama like they did in 2008.
You can go down the line of the 2008 voting blocks and I can't see one set of constituents that Obama should do as well with this time as he did in 2008 except maybe the LGBT crowd and shockingly out of the gay people I know, which is only like 5 or 6 people, at least half of them are voting for Romney.
So to me it becomes a matter of do I believe what the polls and the media say or do I believe what my own eyes and thoughts tell me?
The other interesting thing is this time I see way fewer bumper stickers and signs for either candidate. Which I think probably bodes well for Romney.
I guess you could say I am cautiously optimistic Romney will win.