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-   -   6 Reasons Why YOU Wont Survive The Coming Collapse (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1494051)

mrmedina 07-05-2013 23:26

6 Reasons Why YOU Wont Survive The Coming Collapse
 
Comments please.......................

http://www.thesurvivalistblog.net/6-...istBlog.net%29

b_oglethorpe 07-05-2013 23:54

Forget the fact I'm a out of shape fatty who lives off Mac Donald's.


Outdoor Hub mobile, the outdoor information engine

SFCSMITH(RET) 07-06-2013 06:44

Probably true for at least some points for many who want/try to be prepared.

quake 07-06-2013 07:46

All six of his reasons can be boiled down to two concepts - inconsistency and intellectual dishonesty. And those two problems distill down to one word - immaturity.

His six reasons in bold:

Overconfidence - a mature, intellectually-honest person admits his limitations, and trains/practices enough to genuinely know them. This discovery and acceptance is not only more likely as one ages, it's more important as one ages.

Procrastination - This is one of my soapbox issues. A mature person does what is necessary, when it is necessary; and is honest enough with himself to be willing to leave his comfort zone when necessary. This isn't a prep thing, it's a life thing. As zig ziglar put it, "If you do what you ought to do, when you ought to do it, the time will soon come when you can do what you want to do, when you want to do it." Procrastination is simply the unwillingness to forgo the 'want to' items of immediate gratification and instead work on the 'ought to' items, while simply assuming that "it will all work out in the long run"; even if they intellectually know that to be unlikely and irrational.

Inefficient use of resources - much like 'procrastination' above, it's partly a problem of comfort zone, and largely an issue of ignorance; both of which are reduced as maturity and focus are increased.

Failure to act - typically induced by either fear or emotional unwillingness to accept what is seen; a mature person controls his fear and accepts reality, regardless of how uncomfortable or unpleasant that reality is.

Lack of persistence - ie, lack of consistency and lack of purpose; both signs of unstable, unfocused, immature thought processes.

Divided actions - Same as above. Even the bible says, "A double-minded man is unstable in all his ways", so this is more than just my personal opinion.


All that said, if he'd titled the article "Six Reasons MANY People won't Survive the Coming Collapse", I'd agree with him fully. There are a whole lot of inconsistent, intellectually-dishonest, immature, fearful, emotional, and double-minded people in the world; and seems like we have more than our fair share in modern America. The most frustrating part for me personally, is that not only would a simple dose of mature, intellectual honesty help overcome many of life's speed bumps for both individuals and society at large, it would actually prevent many of those speed bumps as well.

But it's easier to be a passenger on a bus than to drive your own car, and over the mid- to late-1900's our incredible prosperity as a nation allowed us to devolve from a society of individual drivers, into a collection of passengers.

That's why those of us who want to just be our own individuals are now seen as the odd and dangerous ones. The society of passengers thinks, "Why don't those guys just get on the bus with the rest of us?" The passengers consciously leave the driving to someone else, looking only out their side windows and seeing the beautiful scenery as it passes by; but never looking out the windshield for themselves, and so never seeing the cliff the bus is headed for.

kirgi08 07-06-2013 08:51

:goodpost: :agree:

UneasyRider 07-06-2013 12:21

It's like the Nike folks say, "Just do it!"

FireForged 07-06-2013 19:23

5 out of the 6 reasons are all character flaws and the 6th is an axiom ... is this actually supposed to be taken as a serious analytical consideration??

eb07 07-06-2013 19:27

When society breaks down. Luck and fate will control everything. Wrong place wrong time. Right place right time. Golden bb.

drt4life 07-06-2013 19:46

So many variables.....experts are wrong all the time.....If you are serious about prepping, you have to prep seriously....

cowboywannabe 07-06-2013 20:30

how did the cowboys survive without all the nice-ities we worry about losing today?

bdcochran 07-06-2013 22:08

"how did the cowboys survive without all the nice-ities we worry about losing today?"

The other day, there was also a posting by a member who thought that because the American Indian existed without modern conveniences, we should also be able to do so.

So, for those who fantasize, here are google citations:

http://www.pbs.org/weta/thewest/prog...ve/cowboys.htm
"The cowboys' average age was 24. They were paid so badly, and worked so hard, that two-thirds of them made only one trail drive before finding something better to do. They owned their saddle, but not the horse they rode -- and they rode it day and night.

For a man to be stove up at thirty may sound strange to some people, but many a cowboy has been so bunged up that he has to quit riding that early in life... My advice to any young man or boy is to stay at home and not be a rambler, as it won't buy you anything.
James Emmit McCauley"

Life Expectancy
http://www.customessaymeister.com/cu...abor/16056.htm

"In 1850 the life expectancy of a white male living in the U.S was thirty-eight years old. A Cowboys prime time in his life was about twenty-four. Many cowboys lasted well into there thirties but due to the hard work and many activities the men were tired and were owed a rest. "

Ok, next the fantasy that you will live off the land. Most farmers were permanently disabled by age 40 by industrial accidents. So, when you fantasize about it, I will not allow you to have a rota-tor cuff fixed, a hip replacement, a hernia repaired, antibiotics, a knee replacement, eye surgery, a tetanus shot (the author of Walden Pond's brother died of lockjaw). After all, the farmers who lived off the land did not have those things.

Go ahead and look at photographs of settlers in the late 1800s. The kids didn't wear shoes. Many lived in sod houses. That was the reality!
"
http://www.netplaces.com/american-ci...casualties.htm
The casualty statistics are staggering. According to an analysis of government records, slightly more than 350,000 Union soldiers died from various causes during the Civil War. The majority of deaths were from disease. Nearly 25,000 men died from causes such as suicide, execution, sunstroke, and accidents. The Union navy lost nearly 5,000 men to illness, accidents, and battle injuries.

Records of Confederate deaths aren't nearly as comprehensive as those of Union casualties; military and government files were destroyed during and after the war. However, a generally accepted estimate is 150,000 dead of disease and 95,000 killed or mortally wounded in combat."

The reality is that when you go primitive, your chances of dying of disease and accidents is going to be very high. So, this has been a reality check for the members of the forum - only to be disregarded by the next guy who thinks he can become an isolate like a cowboy, American Indian or a farmer and survive in comfort while everyone else succumbs.

______

quake 07-07-2013 06:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by bdcochran (Post 20435797)
...So, for those who fantasize, here are google citations:

..."In 1850 the life expectancy of a white male living in the U.S was thirty-eight years old. A Cowboys prime time in his life was about twenty-four. Many cowboys lasted well into there thirties but due to the hard work and many activities the men were tired and were owed a rest. "

...The reality is that when you go primitive, your chances of dying of disease and accidents is going to be very high. So, this has been a reality check for the members of the forum - only to be disregarded by the next guy who thinks he can become an isolate like a cowboy, American Indian or a farmer and survive in comfort while everyone else succumbs.

______

Not to mention the odds of even reaching adulthood in the first place. Haven't looked it up in a long time but iirc, it was something like a 20-28% mortality rate before age two, by settlers in the 1840's-1860's. Another example of "we don't realize how good we have it" in modern America.

barbedwiresmile 07-07-2013 07:59

BD, I have to disagree here with your lumping in of farmers. First, using "Civil War" stats is a total non sequitur. War is a completely unnatural condition, where disease, exposure and exhaustion are always rife. Second, while the cowboy life was undoubtedly hard on the body, farming - while hard work - is a lifestyle practiced by the majority of mankind for millennia. Out of this lifestyle has come much of our culture, our folklore, and our early technological advances. You say:

Quote:

Most farmers were permanently disabled by age 40 by industrial accidents
In only a very narrow slice of time would a farmer have been subject to an "industrial" accident. In fact, I would argue that when you take democide out of the equation, more urban industrial workers would have been killed or injured on the job than farmers. They also would have lived more tragic, harder, and shorter lives. I'm reminded of Sinclair's "The Jungle" here, or even Steinbeck.

While I agree, and have repeatedly stated on this forum, that most "live off the land" fantasies are in fact just that. I suggest your presentation of farming in this thread is somewhat narrow. Yes, running a subsistence farm without modern technology is hard work, but it's far from the impossible, dismal grind suggested in this thread. In fact, most of our grandfathers or great grandfathers did it. Until fairly recently, the Amish did it. Many of us still find profound satisfaction in the aspects of our farm life that can be attended to with minimal technology of machination. Until only a few generations ago, prior to the advent of agribusiness and the proto-fascist pogrom to destroy the culture and practice of the family farm, most people did it - along with their families and communities. And many of us could do it again. Our society has largely been tamed, herded into subdivisions, trained within the confines of a fierce, intentionally designed specialization of labor. But not entirely.

You also say:

Quote:

The reality is that when you go primitive, your chances of dying of disease and accidents is going to be very high
"Very" is a relative term. When one goes urban, their chances of contracting diseases is also quite high, also as a function of their environment. Consider the modern rise of diabetes and various diet-related cancers, stress disorders, and mental illness. Not to mention auto accidents and crime statistics. When we compare within the same time periods, urban workers were subject to the same if not higher rates of disease and acciden, and certainly more at risk for infectious diseases such as small pox than their more isolated rural cousins. Also remember that those lifespan stats are heavily skewed by early child mortality.

Finally, of we consider a "collapse" (to use the thread's language), those in urban and suburban clusters are going to be at far more immediate risk of disease due simply to population density and dependence on common services for water, heat, electricity, etc, not to mention an inability to produce food.

Farming, without modern technology, is certainly not for everyone. But it's hardly the short, brutal life made out in your post.

fastbolt 07-07-2013 11:08

Quote:

6 Reasons Why YOU Won’t Survive The Coming Collapse
Uh, hard to imagine it could be made more generalized and overly broad. :whistling:

I'd not let those "itemized categories" distract from considering some probably unpleasant realities. Namely, most folks have neither the training nor experience to face exigent situations outside the course and scope of their normal daily existence and effectively deal with them.

Many folks probably don't even realize how limited their ability may be to deal with unexpected, exigent situations.

Dunno.

My personal and professional training and experience hasn't given me any definitive "answers", but they've helped me keep an open mind about the unpredictability of any sort of potential emergency situation and its duration.

Stupid 07-07-2013 12:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by bdcochran (Post 20435797)
"how did the cowboys survive without all the nice-ities we worry about losing today?"

The other day, there was also a posting by a member who thought that because the American Indian existed without modern conveniences, we should also be able to do so.

So, for those who fantasize, here are google citations:

http://www.pbs.org/weta/thewest/prog...ve/cowboys.htm
"The cowboys' average age was 24. They were paid so badly, and worked so hard, that two-thirds of them made only one trail drive before finding something better to do. They owned their saddle, but not the horse they rode -- and they rode it day and night.

For a man to be stove up at thirty may sound strange to some people, but many a cowboy has been so bunged up that he has to quit riding that early in life... My advice to any young man or boy is to stay at home and not be a rambler, as it won't buy you anything.
James Emmit McCauley"

Life Expectancy
http://www.customessaymeister.com/cu...abor/16056.htm

"In 1850 the life expectancy of a white male living in the U.S was thirty-eight years old. A Cowboys prime time in his life was about twenty-four. Many cowboys lasted well into there thirties but due to the hard work and many activities the men were tired and were owed a rest. "

Ok, next the fantasy that you will live off the land. Most farmers were permanently disabled by age 40 by industrial accidents. So, when you fantasize about it, I will not allow you to have a rota-tor cuff fixed, a hip replacement, a hernia repaired, antibiotics, a knee replacement, eye surgery, a tetanus shot (the author of Walden Pond's brother died of lockjaw). After all, the farmers who lived off the land did not have those things.

Go ahead and look at photographs of settlers in the late 1800s. The kids didn't wear shoes. Many lived in sod houses. That was the reality!
"
http://www.netplaces.com/american-ci...casualties.htm
The casualty statistics are staggering. According to an analysis of government records, slightly more than 350,000 Union soldiers died from various causes during the Civil War. The majority of deaths were from disease. Nearly 25,000 men died from causes such as suicide, execution, sunstroke, and accidents. The Union navy lost nearly 5,000 men to illness, accidents, and battle injuries.

Records of Confederate deaths aren't nearly as comprehensive as those of Union casualties; military and government files were destroyed during and after the war. However, a generally accepted estimate is 150,000 dead of disease and 95,000 killed or mortally wounded in combat."

The reality is that when you go primitive, your chances of dying of disease and accidents is going to be very high. So, this has been a reality check for the members of the forum - only to be disregarded by the next guy who thinks he can become an isolate like a cowboy, American Indian or a farmer and survive in comfort while everyone else succumbs.

______


What a sobering post!!!

UneasyRider 07-07-2013 14:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stupid (Post 20436895)
What a sobering post!!!

You can say that again!

FireForged 07-07-2013 14:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by fastbolt (Post 20436702)
uh, hard to imagine it could be made more generalized and overly broad. :whistling:


.....+1

Stupid 07-07-2013 15:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by cowboywannabe (Post 20435589)
how did the cowboys survive without all the nice-ities we worry about losing today?

With a whole lot shorter life span and a whole lot higher mortality rate.

I would challenge everybody who fantasize that they can live without the modern medical system. Try just to walk 5-10 miles a day everyday for a year. If you don't injure yourself in anyway that needs medical attention, that would be miracle already. In the jungle? Forget it. You may last a week or two if you don't have injury or illness.

In my stupid opinion, we can only survive by one of the two ways:
1. Band together to form a new society/community.
2. Bug out to another safe country.

beatcop 07-07-2013 15:56

I'll meet you at the fema camp.

rgregoryb 07-07-2013 16:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by beatcop (Post 20437298)
I'll meet you at the fema camp.

your tent will be the one with the Gadsden Flag? :supergrin:

pugman 07-07-2013 16:18

5 Reasons you (as in the people on this board) have a chance better than most.

Situational Awareness: You watch the news, you read blogs and you can even lump GT S&P into this. Estimates range but I've read as many as half of Americans under the age of 30 now get their "news" from social media sites. I was at the gym earlier today talking to a few regulars...none of the 5 even knew about the situation in Egypt which they first became aware of as they saw it on the news feed on one of the club's big tvs. However, 5 of 5 knew the Eagles were playing at Summerfest tonight and 4 of the 5 said they would "hit" Kim Kardashian.

Gun Ownership: You probably own a gun...probably more than one. The U.S population in 2012 was estimated at 314 million. Again, numbers vary but most estimates I've read state less than 1 in 3 own a gun now a days and less than 1 in 20 have ever had any sort of defensive training with it.

Food: No you might not have ten years worth of food stocked away. You may never have broken out the canning set you bought five years ago but I bet 9 in 10 people on this board have at least two weeks of food in the house. This alone will help you in most "real world" collaspes. Again, numbers vary but from what I read the average family of four has less than 3 days worth of food in the house. Eating out, the fact less and less families have family meals and poor eating in general all led to this.

S&P interest: My personal pet peeve. The fact you read this board means the prepardness bug is still in you. The author doesn't get the fact if people are reading his article on a board called The Survivalist Blog there is at least in interest. My niece's BD party was yesterday. My entire family was on me about the fact I carried there, I went to see World War Z, the fact after the party I was going to finish my workout at the gym, etc. My siblings have quietly told my nieces and nephews Uncle Pugman is "crazy." Again, they were oblivious to Egypt. My older brother (who makes a very comfortable six figure living) told my SIL they needed to stop on the way home to get toliet paper. How does a family run out of toliet paper? I know for a fact my brother's family has less than a week's worth of food in the house, no gun, no supplies, etc. They barely have bandaids in the house-how does a family with kids not have even a basic FAK? I'm willing to bet most on this board have basics-this alone puts you ahead of 75% of the U.S (and probably more).

Buddies: It would be extremely unlikely a single person will survive a collaspe. You probably have one friend who shares your prepardness bug; you may be part of a network. Your entire family might be "into it." The point being even though you might not be persistant or you aren't efficient in your resources; your friends and network might balance you out. There is strength in numbers

fastbolt 07-07-2013 16:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugman (Post 20437363)
5 Reasons you (as in the people on this board) have a chance better than most. ...

If I knew of a way to attach a "LIKE" to this post, as can be done on other forums, I'd do so with this post. ;)

FireForged 07-07-2013 19:20

All this doom, gloom and despair isn't really going to matter if something like shtf ever happens. In that moment you can sit there and give up or you can get-on and live in whatever way you can. Maybe it will be 6 months maybe It will be 6 years, who knows. It doesn't matter what happened to the "cowboys" or some tribe in the congo. The only thing that will matter is what options I have [right now] and what decisions I need to make. I can contribute to my list of options and learn to mitigate some of the threats that would endanger me -or- I can throw my hands up and do nothing if a crisis occurs.

bdcochran 07-07-2013 19:24

I guess that I wasn't clear
 
I assumed that shtf meant a breakdown in society.

Farming. I do remember agriculture in the south some 60 years ago and I am the managing member of a family farm llc.

If shtf, there won't be wide scale farming - probably a reversion to subsistence farming if people have skills. Most don't. I can tell you that you don't want to go back to the dirt floor, bathroomless shacks that I saw growing up. In fact I remember in-door plumbing coming in the 1960s to relatives with whom I was staying. People sure get slowed down when bathing is standing in a large pan and pouring cold water over yourself!

There is probably underlying assumption that a person would get ahold of a mule, a plow, and seed. Ok. Try finding a mule, plow, various seeds in bulk or a horse drawn wagon in your area.

My great grandfather had a hernia develop during the civil war. There weren't surgeries in the 19th century - so he wore a truss for the rest of his life. Most farmers ended up disabled by torn rotator cuffs. I have personally had both shoulders done by modern medicine and a number of other surgeries. So, if shtf and you go to subsidence farming, I doubt that you will find modern medical care.

So for most, the reality is dragging a stick in the ground to plant seeds, trying to find water, doing without fertilizer, doing without a work animal.

In today's society, speak to an older person. They try to locate near doctors, medical centers. A lot of young people think that they will retire to the country when they retire - and then the reality hits them. Even modern farming (home farming) is tough. There are mighty few people who have a family garden that supplies them with all the fruit and vegetables.

Understand, if you want to believe that you already have the skills of a 19th Century American Indian or farmer and will survive in 2013 US after shtf, go right ahead. I have a lot of those skills and doubt that I would with the population density of today.

greatwun 07-08-2013 09:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by bdcochran (Post 20435797)

So, for those who fantasize, here are google citations:

http://www.pbs.org/weta/thewest/prog...ve/cowboys.htm
"The cowboys' average age was 24. They were paid so badly, and worked so hard, that two-thirds of them made only one trail drive before finding something better to do. They owned their saddle, but not the horse they rode -- and they rode it day and night.

For a man to be stove up at thirty may sound strange to some people, but many a cowboy has been so bunged up that he has to quit riding that early in life... My advice to any young man or boy is to stay at home and not be a rambler, as it won't buy you anything.
James Emmit McCauley"

Life Expectancy
http://www.customessaymeister.com/cu...abor/16056.htm

"In 1850 the life expectancy of a white male living in the U.S was thirty-eight years old. A Cowboys prime time in his life was about twenty-four. Many cowboys lasted well into there thirties but due to the hard work and many activities the men were tired and were owed a rest. "

Ok, next the fantasy that you will live off the land. Most farmers were permanently disabled by age 40 by industrial accidents. So, when you fantasize about it, I will not allow you to have a rota-tor cuff fixed, a hip replacement, a hernia repaired, antibiotics, a knee replacement, eye surgery, a tetanus shot (the author of Walden Pond's brother died of lockjaw). After all, the farmers who lived off the land did not have those things.

Go ahead and look at photographs of settlers in the late 1800s. The kids didn't wear shoes. Many lived in sod houses. That was the reality!
"
http://www.netplaces.com/american-ci...casualties.htm
The casualty statistics are staggering. According to an analysis of government records, slightly more than 350,000 Union soldiers died from various causes during the Civil War. The majority of deaths were from disease. Nearly 25,000 men died from causes such as suicide, execution, sunstroke, and accidents. The Union navy lost nearly 5,000 men to illness, accidents, and battle injuries.

Records of Confederate deaths aren't nearly as comprehensive as those of Union casualties; military and government files were destroyed during and after the war. However, a generally accepted estimate is 150,000 dead of disease and 95,000 killed or mortally wounded in combat."

The reality is that when you go primitive, your chances of dying of disease and accidents is going to be very high. So, this has been a reality check for the members of the forum - only to be disregarded by the next guy who thinks he can become an isolate like a cowboy, American Indian or a farmer and survive in comfort while everyone else succumbs.

______


Very interesting


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