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-   -   SHTF time factor ? (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1473763)

sandyc 02-24-2013 12:16

SHTF time factor ?
 
I suppose this has been talked about before, apparently I missed it. Yesterday evening I was talking to a retired economics prof I know and he said pay attention to the next several months, something has to pop big time. Like most teachers he leans more toward the liberal side of things, but he did admit that the government is headed in the wrong direction and entitlements are way out of hand. Can't argue with that.

My question: When things start to unravel, will it be fast or slow? I personally think it would take several months for things to really get bad, but that's me. What say you? Thanks

ChallengerSRT 02-24-2013 12:47

I think it would start out slow and then potentially escalate quickly as people panic and get out of control. The major cities would feel the effects much quicker than rural America.
I'm not convinced it's actually going to happen, but then again, NEVER have I been so uncertain about the future of this country. If the SHTF, don't blame me. I didn't vote THEM in!

jakebrake 02-24-2013 12:50

use this as a test tube viewpoint. remember that cruise ship that crapped out in the gulf of mexico?

yeah...72 hours, and society becomes "savages"

yellowhand 02-24-2013 13:24

When you place a million or more people into a city and they are unable to feed themselves from their local areas, disrupt the trucks carrying food and you have chaos in less than 72 hours!
There are 1000 things that could disrupt the trucking industry, stop these trucks from rolling, then its only a matter of time before it happens.
3 minutes without air, 3 days without water, 30 days without food and many/most will die!
The person who wrote, we're only 9 meals away from chaos had it right.
Pay attention to the trucks.

RWBlue 02-24-2013 16:55

Based on life experiences.....

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lighting fast.

PaulMason 02-24-2013 18:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by sandyc (Post 20026727)
I suppose this has been talked about before, apparently I missed it. Yesterday evening I was talking to a retired economics prof I know and he said pay attention to the next several months, something has to pop big time. Like most teachers he leans more toward the liberal side of things, but he did admit that the government is headed in the wrong direction and entitlements are way out of hand. Can't argue with that.

My question: When things start to unravel, will it be fast or slow? I personally think it would take several months for things to really get bad, but that's me. What say you? Thanks

Did he give any specifics as to what to watch for?

- Sequester
- Italian Elections
- Spain?

Stupid 02-24-2013 18:59

Unless the whole government collapse, it's just a slow death which may drag on for years. Read FerFAL's blog about Argentina.

Things won't go into chaos immediately unless it's some sort of natural disaster or wide spread disease.

cowboy1964 02-24-2013 19:28

The Mayan thing is over so I guess it's on to the next imminent SHTF/TEOTWAWKI.

rj1939 02-24-2013 19:30

A couple of things have happened lately that seem noteworthy:
Zero gets up on national tv and makes a statement to the effect that........the United States must continue to pay its bills. Never has a president ever gotten up and made such a statement and it was hardly noticed.

The IRS in the past few years has been able to give an exact date for refunds............not this year, it started out as 21 days, now it just says it is being processed.
Sounds like our government is showing signs of breaking down. Or maybe just the effect of four plus years of an imbecile president.

sandyc 02-24-2013 19:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaulMason (Post 20027973)
Did he give any specifics as to what to watch for?

- Sequester
- Italian Elections
- Spain?

When our money is worthless and we have no more credit. This is what he thinks will trigger some sort of collapse. When that comes about, who knows, hopefully not anytime soon. By the way, this guy is no kind of prepper, he's 81 yrs old.

rj1939 02-24-2013 19:40

There is a pattern established that when fuel goes over 3.80 that economic activity (by consumers) falls off dramatically............we are there again, plus we have these new taxes added on this time. It should be a very ugly year.

PaulMason 02-24-2013 20:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by sandyc (Post 20028298)
When our money is worthless and we have no more credit. This is what he thinks will trigger some sort of collapse. When that comes about, who knows, hopefully not anytime soon. By the way, this guy is no kind of prepper, he's 81 yrs old.

That is a way off. Look at Europe. They instituted a VAT in the 70s that postponed their problems. The USA will do that in about 7 years.

Slow decline - like the UK is our future.

engineer151515 02-24-2013 20:13

The global economy was within hours of collapsing with the subprime mortgage failure when the US government acted.


You received about as much warning as the Russian folks with the recent meteor.


Keep that in mind. From an engineering standpoint, history as shown time and time again lengthy warnings unheeded leading to an exponentially fast failure mode.

Water
Food
Ammo

engineer151515 02-24-2013 20:14

. . . . .

Aceman 02-24-2013 20:38

I think it is going to be slow with many peaked chaos moments. Like how guns and ammo got scarce - except with more things more often. Some Food, gas, other food, ammo, Emergency services, riot here, gas shortage again, inflation, all food, etc...

Lot's of chaos moments in one area or another on the way down. And I really think down is gonna happen. But slow. And painful.

dennis3dflyer 02-24-2013 20:55

I also have been giving this some thinking, But there is just too many things that can happen to effect all bad and good possiblities.

On the good side some say a new trade agreement coming soon with the US and EU would be a very large boost to all econamies. A new technology could come online like computers did a while back to improve economic activity.

On the bad side the 3rd currency war could start (some have said it has already ) and China , Russia , US go crazy with the devaluation and way of Valuating their currencies causing severe interuptions of capital flow thus causing a very bad business enviroment. Thus depression, inflation, interuption of goods , food ect.

. Then the havoc of many derivatives being honored and or not honored. Kind of like an insurance policy not being paid thus pension funds and other investors , banks, govts, losing big time and having to have to actually realize the loss in the accounting sence, not covering it up any more.

Then lets not forget China, Russia, doing all they can to deal what they think is a death blow to us in the financial markets, selling our debt fast and furious without worry of their loss as they have increased their gold reserves to a level the increase in gold price as we go down the drain will make them a power player in the new money GOLD.

Mix in the Dollar losing world reserve status . And we will be in a world of hurting.

But after all this Worry,,,,, The US is still the most preffered place / country to live and be educated in. Parents all over the world want their kids to be able to come here.

I also personally think / wonder if there is a way to bring order back to this mess via a internationaly agreed reset of the financial system and I think there really is as long as China and Russia "s leaders are convinced they will personally profit from the agreeded reset and are convinced to chose to become billionaires vs warlords.

The US has paid off govt leaders before, im sure the western powers are trying to play this card. They could choose to live like kings enjoying all the world has to offer or try to take the whole ball of wax and risk death or isolation like north korean leader. Or they could end up as KING of The World if they win the total game with much bloodletting on all sides.

But what do i know.....ps i forgot to answer the question. I feel it could go any way. Sloooooowwwww. Or crash very fast ... I just rather not roll the dice....

Manco 02-24-2013 23:43

The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P are still climbing yet so is unemployment. The bonds are propping up the economy, and when the bond bubble bursts, it will be ugly. I've read up to a 90% correction in the US economy. Watch the precious metal prices. When they go crazy one way or the other, behold the next days.

rj1939 02-25-2013 04:00

We can practically predict the future by listening to the latest denials by the idiot Bernanke...........whatever he is denying this week/month is exactly what will happen.

This thing is well under way, it won't be a straight line deterioration, but a choppy ride.........with a large scale war coming our way.

pugman 02-25-2013 09:48

I’m going with about 10-12 years on the outside – but it depends on so many parts it’s a moving target. Things to consider.

The CBO’s economic outlook for the ten year period of 2012-2022 predicts 1) deficit spending every year 2) increased revenues every year. In other words, the deficit will get worse year after year even though the fed predicts it can squeeze more and more money from its populace. For the record, the CBO’s estimate of the deficit was around $250-$500 billion a year; lately its running over a $1 trillion.

Major social programs like social security and Medicare will eventually collapse; these programs are going so far as to admit they are going to fail. Social security will be insolvent by 2025. Medicare’s 2010 expenses will double by 2020 as more and more baby boomers hit the program; combined with Medicaid, unemployment insurance, CHIPS, etc. these programs will eat up the entire income of what the fed took in for 2010 in less than seven years.

The federal government is slowly looking at some unconventional ways of increasing its access to funds. Disallowing the mortgage interest tax deduction, seizing retirement assets, etc. These are unconventional ways because the method doesn’t produce anything; disallowing the mortgage interest deduction for example means 1) you and I pay taxes on post income taxed dollars which 2) are then taxed again as income to whatever bank or institution you pay them to. Seizing retirement assets just allows them to exert control over this $20 trillion dollar “pot of gold.” These methods won’t produce a single job in the private sector or build another widget.

It was just last November (?) Obama attempted his Pacific rim/Asian market coup against the Chinese where he wanted to band Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc. and pit them against the Chinese. Not only did he fail; but they created the Regional Comprehensive Economic partnership and excluded the U.S.

IMO, the unraveling will come one of two ways 1) Something big will happen now. The aforementioned mortgage interest deduction removal, maybe a VAT, maybe a state attempts to secede and the fed attempt to block it – the government will attempt to exert its control or extort its populace in just an inappropriate way people will eventually say enough. I could see the entire system failing within a few months. 2) we will be the proverbial frog who slowly watches the water boil and eventually it fails in a wimper.

Economically, I think it will be the later. Although I have nieces and nephews I love dearly, I have no children; I would hate to be a parent just starting a family now.

GlockN 02-25-2013 10:24

Modern society will never collapse. What is collapsing is all your freedoms. This is what should concern you.

FriarTuck 02-25-2013 11:44

"When the ship hits the sand..." no man knows.

But in Luke 21, some hints of the impending end of the age include:
-wars and rumors of wars
-great earthquakes
-famines
-pestilences
-signs in the heavens
-persecution of Christians
-Jerusalem compassed by armies (this might be the time to flee to the mountains). But amidst all the fear and slaughter, look up and know that the kingdom of God is nigh at hand. Then you will see the Son of man coming in a cloud with power and great glory.

Watch and be ready.

PaulMason 02-25-2013 12:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by GlockN (Post 20030115)
Modern society will never collapse. What is collapsing is all your freedoms. This is what should concern you.

It depends upon what you mean by collapse - Mad Max; probably won't happen.

But, look at Greece & Spain now. Or look at the USA during the Great Depression. Then there is the SHTF holy grail of New Orleans during Katrina. I don't like that example generally but it fits as an indicator sometimes.

JLM63 02-25-2013 17:56

"The longest telegraphed punch in human history."

Aceman 02-25-2013 19:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by FriarTuck (Post 20030364)
"When the ship hits the sand..." no man knows.

But in Luke 21, some hints of the impending end of the age include:
-wars and rumors of wars
-great earthquakes
-famines
-pestilences
-signs in the heavens
-persecution of Christians
-Jerusalem compassed by armies (this might be the time to flee to the mountains). But amidst all the fear and slaughter, look up and know that the kingdom of God is nigh at hand. Then you will see the Son of man coming in a cloud with power and great glory.

Watch and be ready.


Well then, the end has been happening for about 4000 plus years. I guess that means slow.

ArmoryDoc 02-25-2013 23:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by friartuck (Post 20030364)
"when the ship hits the sand..." no man knows.

But in luke 21, some hints of the impending end of the age include:
-wars and rumors of wars
-great earthquakes
-famines
-pestilences
-signs in the heavens
-persecution of christians
-jerusalem compassed by armies (this might be the time to flee to the mountains). But amidst all the fear and slaughter, look up and know that the kingdom of god is nigh at hand. Then you will see the son of man coming in a cloud with power and great glory.

Watch and be ready.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
bingo !


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