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-   -   Upcoming debates - thoughts/predictions? (http://glocktalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1446372)

stsai465 10-05-2012 19:09

Upcoming debates - thoughts/predictions?
 
Now that we (and pundits from both sides) have had their laugh...

What do people think of the upcoming debates? Next on the slate is the undercard (Biden vs Ryan).

Presumably Biden's not stupid enough to get into a policy/numbers argument with the Congressional Chair for Budget (and if he is, presumably, his debate coaches/handlers aren't), so the smart play is to try and steer to the class-warfare/populist rant and hope his tendency for fast-and-loose talking doesn't get in his way. The funny thing is Palin, for all her inexperience at the national stage, easily held her own against him 4 years ago and I tend to think Ryan is every bit if not moreso capable of doing the same. Any other predictions?

After that, it's Round 2 of Obama vs Romney. All the pundits are insisting that Obama will be ready for that one. Format for that one is supposed to be town-hall instead of the strict moderator one, which the MSM claims favors Obama (since they could conceivably stack the audience).

The thinking I have though is even if Obama doesn't lazy* his way out of prep this time (*Sununu's words, not mine), the real question is can he even do anything about it. Even many of the MSM (Wash Post has a decent article by Milbank) admit that Obama's lack of any serious press conferences or challenging forums have left him lacking in debating skills when he can't stack the audience and deprived of his teleprompter. Romney, whatever else his faults, has been through the wringer of a protracted GOP nomination and a non-stop hostile MSM, in addition to his skills as a Governor of a Blue State (forcing compromises) and an executive in private life. He's used to being challenged.

Debate skills (like gun skills) atrophy if not practiced. Do people here think Obama, after spending most of his adult life being sheltered by a soft, forgiving media, has it in him to relearn those debating skills in time for the next debate to avoid another humiliation? If you were Obama, what tact would you try? Angry? Lash out? Or pander to emotions, and hope for a less-impartial moderator to bail him out? Ordinarily, the Chicago-way would be to have some ugly juicy OpRes to use but Romney really doesn't have the usual skeletons (ie, affairs, drug addictions, monetary scandals, etc) that most politicians have.

PaulMason 10-05-2012 19:13

Biden doesn't have any strengths.

2nd debate Obama will study and come out charging with facts. This is when Romney should lead with his heart. It is a town meeting format covering domestic and foreign issues.

JFrame 10-05-2012 19:22

Obama has had some of his most famous (infamous?) fugue-like melt-downs in town hall settings (e.g., his "breathalyzer/inhalator" gaffe, and his time when he couldn't formulate a sentence to save his life, even with people shouting encouragement to him).

Not saying he'll have one of those fugues this time around -- but hey, all that cocaine use has to catch up with a person eventually...


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countrygun 10-05-2012 19:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaulMason (Post 19489225)
Biden doesn't have any strengths.

2nd debate Obama will study and come out charging with facts. This is when Romney should lead with his heart. It is a town meeting format covering domestic and foreign issues.

I'll echo that.

My bet is that Obama may overcompensate for his last performance and Romney should counter by being the "heart" candidate, but be firm and let Obama try an "win the first debate", as it were.

A lot of "increasing people's self-worth by creating the opportunity for them to go to work rather than accept handouts" type of argument from Romney.

Cavalry Doc 10-05-2012 19:26

Barry will try harder.

Duh.

What will happen remains to be seen.

I'm curious to see the foreign policy leaning debate. After Barry's multiple failures in Libya, that should negate any bounce he gets for better men than himself taking out OBL.


It will be interesting, that much is sure.

http://i127.photobucket.com/albums/p...c/CavDoc-3.gif

jdavionic 10-05-2012 19:29

Biden will lose all composure and slap Ryan on stage. Ryan will get him in a chokehold and suddenly Biden's brain will start working and he'll make perfect sense. Ryan will release the hold and Biden will again return to full stupid.

seanmac45 10-05-2012 20:03

Biden will have an accident/medical condition the day before his debate. Nothing serious, just enough to cancel the event.

I'd lay money on that one.

countrygun 10-05-2012 20:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by seanmac45 (Post 19489390)
Biden will have an accident/medical condition the day before his debate. Nothing serious, just enough to cancel the event.

I'd lay money on that one.

that is an "even money" bet IMO

JBnTX 10-05-2012 22:32

Obama is desperately looking for a "national security" excuse to get out of the next debate.

Maybe a family emergency?

klmmicro 10-05-2012 22:59

I have to agree that Obama will try and work a way out of the next debate. His overall weakness was made perfectly clear the first time around and he cannot take another shellacking.

Biden? I am sure it will be most entertaining. Old Joe seems to make me laugh till it hurts every time they allow him to speak outside.

G29Reload 10-06-2012 05:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaulMason (Post 19489225)
2nd debate Obama will study and come out charging with facts.

That would require him to drop out of the race the next day.

Seriously?


I predict he will overcompensate and possibly make a complete ass of himself as a result.

Rabid Rabbit 10-06-2012 08:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by seanmac45 (Post 19489390)
Biden will have an accident/medical condition the day before his debate. Nothing serious, just enough to cancel the event.

I'd lay money on that one.

Like what? Severy spine curvature from accidently pulling his head out of his ass.

redbrd 10-06-2012 08:24

I think the next debate will be even worse for Obama. If he trys to come in with his campaigns talking points regarding foreign policy he will get crushed.
I believe most Americans are basically ignorant regarding his policies overseas. His policies have been extremely ignorant, ill conceived, and inconsistent. The only reason he has gotten away with it is because the media has allowed him to.
In a face to face debate he won't get away with it. It was bad when he tried regarding domestic issues, but foreign policy has been much worse than his domestic policies.
He will continue to be exposed to be over his head to be President.
If Romney comes in prepared no matter how sharp Obama is he can't defend his record.

JFrame 10-06-2012 08:28

Obama will push the "drop" in the unemployment rate as hard as he pushed his grandmother in the last debate -- maybe even harder.


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stsai465 10-06-2012 10:14

Don't underestimate your enemies, guys. Even if we think Biden is a doofus, some of the operatives around him presumably aren't. Also, historically, incumbants have tended to fair better on second debates than first ones, which tend to favor challengers.

I hadn't even considered one (or both) bailing on the debate (medical condition, family, ginned-up national emergency, whatever), but I seriously doubt they'd do so. They may as well try floating up Bev Perdue's trial balloon of cancelling the elections, because bailing out like that (esp after the last performance) would reek of exactly that.

I do tend to think Biden is marginally better talking off-the-cuff than Obama, if for no other reason his experience, but that's damning with faint praise. I've only seen Ryan's speeches once or twice, so I'm not sure how good he is in a debate setting, though I agree with most of his policy positions.

The other factor to consider is what/how the MSM/moderator shenanigans will play out.

G29Reload 10-06-2012 11:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rabid Rabbit (Post 19490445)
Like what? Severy spine curvature from accidently pulling his head out of his ass.

Two to the back of his head from Hillary, dressed up like a Ninja.

gwalchmai 10-06-2012 12:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by stsai465 (Post 19489213)
Presumably Biden's not stupid enough to...

Sounds like a good game show.

JFrame 10-06-2012 12:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by stsai465 (Post 19490750)
Don't underestimate your enemies, guys. Even if we think Biden is a doofus, some of the operatives around him presumably aren't. Also, historically, incumbants have tended to fair better on second debates than first ones, which tend to favor challengers.

...


I was listening to Reince Priebus after the presidential debate, and I definitely had the sense that no one was taking Biden lightly.


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Flintlocker 10-06-2012 13:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by seanmac45 (Post 19489390)
Biden will have an accident/medical condition the day before his debate. Nothing serious, just enough to cancel the event.

I'd lay money on that one.

$10,000?


series1811 10-06-2012 13:32

I predict that Biden will say something so insanely stupid, that the DNC will have to explain it, "We know what you think you heard him say, but what he really meant was, it's Bush's fault."

Anybody want to take it? :supergrin:


Obama and Romney. Nothing exciting. Just more deer caught in the headlights looks from Obama on very simple questions.


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